Week 11 fantasy football waiver wire pickups, trade candidates and start or sit roster decisions based on PFF routes run

Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and chasing target volume has always been a winning strategy — especially in PPR leagues. PFF premium stats offers proprietary data that goes well beyond the box score, including routes run for every player on the depth chart.

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Targeting players who run a high percentage of routes is a good strategy for identifying breakout candidates, DFS targets and the best waiver wire pickups. This weekly report will look at the previous week's rate of routes run per dropback compared to larger samples to find sleeper running backs, wide receivers and tight ends who are garnering more or less opportunities in the passing game heading into Week 11.

Last week's article highlighted the likes of Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey, Tyler Conklin and Dan Arnold as players whose receiving usage was likely to transform into fantasy production sooner than later.

This data does not include the Monday Night Football game between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Rate of routes run per dropback | Week 10

Dive for Quez Watkins off the waiver wire as a deep play for Week 11. Dallas Goedert could miss the game if he does not clear concussion protocol, opening up targets for WRs not named DeVonta Smith. The matchup is great against the New Orleans Saints, who allow the fourth-most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers in coverage. Plus, Marshon Lattimore will likely trail Smith in coverage.

We saw Marcus Johnson pop off as the No. 2 option for Tennessee in Week 10, so something similar could happen with Watkins, who ran a route on 92% of Jalen Hurts’ dropbacks and earned a 26% target share in Week 10.

Leave James Washington on waivers. Washington playing a high snap share and running routes has never been his issue — it’s been his lack of targets. He led all players in routes run Sunday (53) and finished with just two catches for 15 yards on seven targets (13% target share). He did catch one pass for a touchdown, but chasing touchdowns with fringe wideouts will result in more misses than hits.

Brandon Aiyuk’s utilization continues to grow. The second-year WR ran a route on a season-high 100% of team dropbacks in Week 10. 

Odell Beckham Jr. ran a route on just 24% of Matthew Stafford’s dropbacks in his season debut with the Los Angeles Rams. Van Jefferson led the team (98%), followed by Cooper Kupp (96%) and then Bennett Skowronek (76%). Skowronek saw the biggest boost in playing time in the wake of the Robert Woods‘ injury. 

Expect Beckham’s snaps to rise after the bye week at the expense of Skowronek, not Jefferson.

Rate of routes run per dropback | Last four weeks