Trench Warfare: Week 7 RB Matchups and Rankings

Each week in Trench Warfare we will take a look at the RB matchups for the upcoming week based on individual matchups in the trenches and team tendencies. Most matchup articles you will find take into account statistics you can find on NFL.com that rank run defenses based on total rushing yardage given up. In doing so, they neglect important factors. For example, if a team is ahead by multiple scores they are more likely to run the ball and this will inflate the numbers. If a defense squared off agains the two best running teams in Weeks 1 and 2, can we really deem them to be a “bad rushing defense” and one to exploit?

At PFF we have the luxury of analyzing premium statistics that are derived from game film. Every player has every snap observed and every player gets a grade. To predict the success of a RB on a given week we can look to tendencies and matchups instead. For example, if I know that Team X has ran constantly off left tackle, behind a left tackle, tight end and left guard who have consistently graded out strongly in run-blocking and is matched up against Team Y who starts a RE and DRT who struggle to defend the run — I know that we can expect Team X to run often off left tackle, and to have a great chance to win those battles the majority of the time.

Of course, any week I can just tell you that Ray Rice, Arian Foster, and LeSean McCoy are the best matchups — but that would defeat the whole purpose of this article. The idea is to give you an idea of players who are expected to perform one way, but perform the complete opposite based on trends and matchups.

You can also find my RB Rankings based on the matchups below and under each excerpt I will refer to my prediction from the previous week. *Note that in these rankings, I am advising that only these backs I allude to in the chart can safely be played as your flex or RB2. Any other option this week should be avoided due to matchup concerns regardless of their current role in the offense.

Unless notified as otherwise, all of the ratings in parenthesis are grades for the year-to-date and not just the past week.

Best Matchup of Week 6

(Last Week’s Pick: LeSean McCoy – 48 total yards and 1 TD)

Trent Richardson @ Indianapolis

There are good matchups to exploit in Week 7 but due to a combination of talent, workload,  toughness and the opposing defense he faces– T Rich is the best bet for elite production. Recent reports point to the fact that Richardson's workload will be dependent on his pain-threshold. Count me in as someone who believes he can fight through a rib injury. Cleveland has graded out as the 10th best offensive line so far (+6.8). As I noted in last week's column, Richardson loves running behind his C Alex Mack (+3.9). The majority of Richardson's runs have gone through the middle and middle-right of the offense and he has had his most success in these situations totaling 126 yards on 29 carries (4.3 ypc). While the that ypc may not seem overly impressive, keep in mind that Brandon Weeden is his QB. The Browns have also found success running behind FB Owen Marecic (+1.5) and they would be wise to use him more frequently this game.

Let me be perfectly clear here—the reason this is the best matchup of the week is because Richardson is matched up against the defense that just gave up 162 yards rushing to Shonn Greene, who had entered the game averaging just 2.85 ypc through five weeks. Indianapolis' atrocious showing in Week 6 means that they have moved past the Panthers for the first time in weeks to take the crown as the worst-graded defense at PFF (-27.9).

As long as the Browns stay within one score for the entire game, they will be able to stick with their run game. In doing so, they can pound it right down  the Colts throat with a heavy does of Trent Richardson. Indianapolis will soon find out that Shonn Greene was the least of their worries.

Other Favorable Matchups:

(Featured in Week 5: Trent Richardson, who left early with an injury)

Felix Jones @ Carolina

We have all been burned in the past by Felix Jones. Originally drafted as a first-round pick after splitting time in college with Darren McFadden, Jones started his career as a burner with great receiving skills out of the backfield. Injuries, a lack of preparation, and a poor effort to stay in shape have recently derailed Jones' career. However, Murray is hurt and he gets a chance to “prove” himself against the second-worst graded run defense in the NFL, the Panthers (-25.6).

Jones looked much quicker last week after dropping his pre-season extra weight. He also hit the whole harder (as noted by NFL Films Greg Cosell). The real determining factor will be if the Cowboys' offensive line can continue the success it displayed last week against BAL coming out of their bye week. For the year (+0.2) Dallas is ranked right in the middle of the pack in run-blocking. However, last week, they put together a solid grade (+2.1). This was aided greatly by the return of their starting C Phil Costa (+4.9) who finally made his return to the lineup. If Costa can remain consistent, it should bode well for Dallas' running game going forward.

If Dallas can establish an early lead, Felix will get his touches and should do well with them in a “prove it” type game for his career.

Chris Johnson @ Buffalo

It may be difficult for some of you to read anything positive about Chris Johnson. (I'm looking right at you, the owner who had somehow owned CJ not just this year but last year as well.) However, CJ looked a lot better last week against the Steelers and seemed to be decisive in his cuts upfield. Johnson ran for 98 yards on just 19 carries (5.2 ypc) What is even more assuring is that the entire Titans offensive line besides G Steve Hutchinson graded out in the “green” (at least +1.0)

This week CJ faces a Bills run defense that is rapidly descending. In the first few weeks they were an average run defense and now they have become the fourth-worst (-15.3) after consecutive poor showings in a row. Last week, the Bills gave up 70 yards on just 13 carries to Williams Powell (5.4 ypc) who was running  behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.

CJ is no superstar anymore, but he can safely be plugged and played at your RB or flex spot this week.

Matchup That Could Surprise:

Alex Green @ St. Louis 

The Rams have the sixth-worst run defense so far (-7.3) and it is highly possible that Green Bay jumps out to an early lead and uses the run to kill the second-half clock.

Waiver Wire Desperation Flex Play of the Week Goes to…

(Featured in Week 5: La'Rod Stephens-Howling)

Phillip Tanner @ Carolina

Tanner looked good in limited play last week when Felix Jones exited due to cramping. Tanner plays behind a fragile Felix Jones in a dream matchups against arguably the worst run-defense in the league who will be without starters Jon Beason and Chris Gamble. Dallas, Tanner's team, is also in a must-win game to keep their season alive. If they get out to an early lead, Tanner will be an interesting “desperation” play for Week 7.

Matchups That Favor the Defense:

(Featured in Week 6: Marshawn Lynch, who finished with just 41 yards on 15 carries and one catch)

Shonn Greene @ New England

It should be “back to the bench” for Shonn Greene who totaled 161 yards rushing and two touchdowns agains the league's weakest run-defense in Week 6. He now runs into the brick wall that is the Patriots run defense. Last week, Marshawn Lynch figured out how easy it is to find a hole running through them. New England has graded out as PFF's fifth-best run defense (+26.4) and Belicheck loves to take away the opposing teams' best weapon. Sadly, I think we may have to assign Shonn Greene as the Jets “beast weapon” by default. Look for New England to try and stymie the Jets running game that boomed in Week 6.

Keep in mind, the Jets will be throwing the second-worst offensive line (-20.3) in the run department at the Patriots scheme. They can't win their battles up front all across the line and that won't change against a stingy Pats defense. Greene should be on all benches for Week 7.

(Featured in Week 6: Steven Jackson, who finished with just 52 yards on 12 carries )

William Powell @ Minnesota

It should be back to the bench for William Powell as well even after he looked impressive in his starter debut last week vs. Buffalo. This is not the Bills defense though, and instead he travels to Minnesota where the Vikings are desperate for a win after a tough loss to the Redskins in Week 6. With another strong showing in Week 6, against Alfred Morris, the Vikings have moved into the second-best run defense at PFF (+37.4).

In a nightmare matchup, Powell follows the worst run-blocking line in the league (-40.8). The next worst run-blocking line has only been half as bad (-20.3). This matchup is almost as bad as it can bet for a running back. It is quite possible we won't see a worse matchup all year long. Do not make the mistake of starting Powell.

(Featured in Week 6: Alfred Morris, who finished with just 47 yards on 16 carries, but added a one-yard score)

Deangelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart vs. Dallas

Likely playing from behind, the Panthers will struggle to get anything going with either Williams or Stewart against PFF's sixth-best run defense (+24.1). Dallas boasts a strong front seven that got even more difficult to beat with the return of NT Jay Ratliff who is working his way back into game shape and should be much stronger this week. Dallas held Ray Rice, and Baltimore's top-five run-blocking offensive unit to under four yards per carry last week. The Panthers offensive line (-2.3) should fair even worse when you factor in the season-ending injury to its best lineman C Ryan Kalil. Don't start either Panthers back in Week 7.