The Impact of Defensive Packages on Yards Per Carry

“Knowshon Moreno’s 2013 success was a product of Peyton Manning and the Broncos’ record-setting offense. He won’t be nearly as good in Miami!”

We’ve all heard (or said) some variation of the above statement dozens of times already this offseason.

But, is it true?

Although not much makes me happier than using the fine data available here at PFF to prove a false narrative wrong, I can’t do it this time. Moreno was put in an excellent situation last season, and, for the most part, he underwhelmed. More on that later.

Today, I’m going to take a thorough look at running back Yards-Per-Carry (YPC) data from the past six years. I’ll be adjusting the rushing numbers of each back based on the number of defensive backs on the field. As you can see in our first chart, backs who face significantly more Nickel or Dime than Base are operating at a major advantage.

DBs	YPC	Sample
1	0.7	209
2	0.9	509
3	2.3	2449
4	4.2	48307
5	4.6	18498
6	5.6	2815
7	7.3	92

The first thing I did here was to come up with an expected YPC for each player based the number of defensive backs on the field on each of his carries. To do this, I determined the league-average YPC vs. each defensive personnel package and applied those numbers to each player’s rush attempts. Note that I only used carries by tailbacks who lined up in the backfield. The sample was just under 73,000 carries. Adjustments were also made for each year.

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To kick off our player analysis, we’ll take a look at the running backs from 2013 whose actual YPC outperformed their expected YPC by the largest margins (min. 100 carries)

Rk	Running Back	Car	Actual	Expected	Diff
1	LeGarrette Blount	182	5.2	3.9	1.2
2	Andre Ellington	112	5.5	4.3	1.2
3	DeMarco Murray	217	5.2	4.1	1.1
4	Mark Ingram	105	5.1	4.0	1.1
5	Jamaal Charles	262	4.9	4.1	0.9
6	Donald Brown	128	5.1	4.3	0.8
7	LeSean McCoy	334	5.0	4.4	0.7
8	Alfred Morris	275	4.6	4.0	0.6
9	Adrian L. Peterson	279	4.5	4.0	0.6
10	C.J. Spiller	201	4.6	4.1	0.4
11	Matt Forte	289	4.6	4.2	0.4
12	Chris Ivory	176	4.5	4.1	0.4

LeGarrette Blount was outstanding down the stretch for New England last season. The big man averaged 5.4 yards per carry on 121 carries against opposing base defenses. He scored on five of 14 tries with fewer than four defensive backs on the field (essentially goal line packages). Blount wasn’t quite as dominant against Nickel defenses, but held his own. Now with Pittsburgh, Blount is seemingly stuck behind Le’Veon Bell. As we’ll see later, however, Blount might actually be the better runner.

Just behind Blount sits new Arizona lead back Andre Ellington. Playing a situational role behind now-retired Rashard Mendenhall last season, Ellington averaged 5.5 yards per carry on 112 hauls. He did most of his damage against Nickel, racking up nearly seven yards per carry. A concern for Ellington supporters should be his work against Base defenses. Albeit on a small sample, he managed a 3.6 YPC, which, as we learned earlier, is more than a half yard below average. Ellington is surely going to see a lot more Base as a starter. He’ll need to be better else the team will take a longer look at Stepfan Taylor.

Next, we have the other end of our previous chart. These players were least productive in the league last season, underperforming their expected YPC marks by the highest margins.

Rk	Running Back	Car	Actual	Expected	Diff
47	Bernard Pierce	152	2.9	4.0	-1.2
46	Ray Rice	212	3.1	4.3	-1.2
45	Willis McGahee	137	2.7	3.8	-1.1
44	Trent Richardson	189	2.9	4.0	-1.1
43	Rashard Mendenhall	216	3.2	4.1	-0.9
42	Darren McFadden	109	3.3	4.0	-0.7
41	Maurice Jones-Drew	233	3.4	4.1	-0.7
40	Steven Jackson	156	3.5	4.1	-0.6
39	Le'Veon Bell	237	3.5	4.0	-0.5
38	Danny Woodhead	130	3.9	4.5	-0.5
37	Doug Martin	127	3.6	4.1	-0.5
36	Andre Brown	139	3.6	4.0	-0.5

It shouldn’t be a major surprise seeing the Ravens’ tailback duo one-two in this category. Both were more than a full yard below their expected YPC. Pierce averaged an ugly 2.8 YPC against Base, 3.0 against Nickel, and somehow only 2.3 against Dime. Rice’s 3.1 YPC sounds even worse when you consider that he had the benefit of not seeing a ton of Base defense. Rice faced Nickel on 48 percent of his carries and Dime on another 12 percent. He averaged 2.4 YPC on 76 carries against Base, compared to 3.6 against Nickel. Prior to the 2013 season, Rice had a 4.4 career YPC against Base and a 5.0 mark against Nickel.

Considering the hype surrounding him when he entered the league last season, Trent Richardson makes for an interesting case study. Last season, 71 percent of Richardson’s carries came against Base or tougher packages. He managed only 2.8 YPC against Base, compared to 3.6 against Nickel. He was actually more productive as a rookie, averaging 3.7 YPC against both Base and Nickel.

I mentioned Bell earlier and this chart explains why. Although a massive workload allowed him plenty of fantasy value, Bell wasn’t particularly effective on a per-play basis. I’ve previously discussed his complete lack of big play ability and this study shows underwhelming rushing production, especially against Base defenses. Bell averaged a miserable 3.0 YPC against Base, which accounted for 47 percent of his carries. On 106 carries (45 percent of total), he managed a better, but still below average, 4.4 YPC. Bell was on the “easy” side of the league in terms of defensive personnel faced, which adds to the concern surrounding his underwhelming rushing production.

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Next, we have the players who faced fewer than five defensive backs on the highest percentage of their 2013 carries.

Rk	Player	Att	<5	>4	<4	Base	Nickel	Dime	>6
1	Frank Gore	322	95%	5%	15%	80%	4%	1%	0%
2	Darren McFadden	109	86%	14%	6%	81%	11%	3%	0%
3	Alfred Morris	275	85%	15%	2%	83%	14%	0%	0%
4	Zac Stacy	250	84%	16%	2%	82%	15%	1%	0%
5	Mark Ingram	105	84%	16%	2%	82%	16%	0%	0%
6	Adrian L. Peterson	279	83%	17%	4%	79%	16%	1%	0%
7	DeAngelo Williams	192	82%	18%	3%	79%	17%	1%	0%
8	Willis McGahee	137	80%	20%	10%	69%	18%	2%	0%
9	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	228	78%	22%	7%	71%	21%	1%	0%
10	Rashad Jennings	156	76%	24%	9%	67%	16%	7%	1%
11	Ben Tate	181	75%	25%	2%	73%	22%	3%	0%
12	Chris D. Johnson	279	75%	25%	3%	71%	21%	4%	0%

All hail Frank Gore. It’s extremely impressive that the veteran has held up so well considering the disadvantage he’s at in the 49ers run-heavy offense. Gore easily led the league in the percentage of his carries against fewer than five defensive backs (95 percent) and fewer than four defensive backs (15 percent). He had the good fortune of seeing Nickel or Dime on 15 total carries (including the playoffs) last season. Gore averaged 4.3 YPC against Base defenses (slightly above average) and 2.6 YPC against packages that included only three defensive backs (0.3 above average).

No back saw Base on a higher percentage of his carries than Alfred Morris last season. The big man averaged 4.7 YPC on 229 carries against Base. He was just as good against Nickel, averaging 5.0 YPC on 39 tries. As a rookie in 2012, Morris averaged 5.0 YPC against Base, 4.8 YPC against Nickel, and scored on six of 10 carries against fewer than four defensive backs. This kid is really good.

I’ve called Mark Ingram underrated before and the 2013 season just adds fuel to the fire. He’s fairly productive despite playing at a major disadvantage. Only Morris saw more Base defense than Ingram did last season. He averaged 4.9 YPC on 89 carries against Base, and 6.5 YPC on 17 totes against Nickel. Ingram now has an above average 4.3 career YPC against Base and an exceptional 5.2 YPC against Nickel. Ingram has faced a Dime defense only once in his career, but has 23 carries with fewer than four defensive backs on the field.

On the other hand, the below chart shows the players who had the benefit of seeing nickel, dime, or quarter defenses on the highest percentage of their carries.

Rk	Player	Att	<5	>4	<4	Base	Nickel	Dime	>6
47	Reggie Bush	221	10%	90%	0%	10%	81%	9%	0%
46	Knowshon Moreno	283	17%	83%	1%	16%	66%	17%	0%
45	LeSean McCoy	334	22%	78%	0%	22%	76%	2%	0%
44	Danny Woodhead	130	23%	77%	0%	23%	65%	12%	1%
43	Montee Ball	148	30%	70%	4%	26%	53%	17%	0%
42	Joique Bell	161	39%	61%	0%	39%	52%	9%	0%
41	Bilal Powell	158	39%	61%	4%	35%	55%	6%	0%
40	Andre Ellington	112	39%	61%	1%	38%	54%	6%	1%
39	Ray Rice	212	41%	59%	5%	36%	48%	12%	0%
38	Eddie Lacy	305	41%	59%	1%	40%	56%	2%	0%
37	Donald Brown	128	50%	50%	4%	46%	36%	14%	0%
36	Lamar Miller	177	53%	47%	2%	51%	42%	5%	0%

Gore’s YPC was almost a half yard less than the mark put up by Reggie Bush last season. As we’re learning here, that doesn’t mean Bush was the superior back. While Gore was seeing Base or tougher defenses 95 percent of the time, Bush was working against Nickel or easier defenses on 90 percent of his carries. Bush averaged a mediocre 4.5 YPC on 179 carries against Nickel. Albeit on a small sample of just 22 carries, Bush was good against Base, averaging 5.6 YPC.

I made Moreno the poster boy for this piece and this is where we’re able to discuss him at length. During his breakout campaign, Moreno did, in fact, have the great benefit of facing a ton of Nickel and Dime defenses. He can, of course, thank Peyton Manning for that. Moreno put up a YPC that was 0.3 yards below expected. He was decent on 45 carries (16 percent of his total) against Base, racking up 4.5 YPC. Moreno was worse against Nickel, however, managing 4.3 YPC on 186 carries (66 percent). More troubling was Moreno’s work against Dime. He had the luxury of a league-high 49 carries (17 percent), but managed only 3.9 YPC.

The favorite to replace Moreno has Denver’s lead back, Montee Ball also shows up in the Top 5. Ball was a bit more effective than Moreno on a per-play basis, but his ugly 3.3 YPC against Base defenses is troubling. He put up a 4.5 YPC against Nickel and had a healthy 6.8 mark against Dime.

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The next two charts will be very similar to the previous two, but this time I’m looking at the percentage of rushing yards scored against each defensive package. Backs who ran for at least 200 yards last season are included. The first chart shows the players who accrued the highest percentage of their yardage against fewer than five defensive backs.

Rk	Player	Yds	<5	>4	<4	Base	Nickel	Dime	>6
1	Frank Gore	1283	97%	3%	10%	87%	3%	0%	0%
2	Khiry Robinson	326	91%	9%	4%	87%	9%	0%	0%
3	Kendall Hunter	402	88%	12%	3%	86%	10%	2%	0%
4	Benny Cunningham	261	88%	12%	2%	86%	12%	0%	0%
5	Alfred Morris	1266	85%	15%	0%	84%	15%	0%	0%
6	Shonn Greene	295	84%	16%	12%	72%	12%	4%	0%
7	Zac Stacy	976	84%	16%	1%	83%	16%	1%	0%
8	DeAngelo Williams	789	82%	18%	2%	80%	16%	1%	0%
9	Darren McFadden	355	80%	20%	-1%	81%	17%	3%	0%
10	Adrian L. Peterson	1266	80%	20%	2%	78%	19%	2%	0%
11	Mark Ingram	532	79%	21%	0%	80%	21%	0%	0%
12	Daryl Richardson	215	78%	22%	0%	78%	20%	2%	0%
13	Brandon Jacobs	238	77%	23%	4%	74%	23%	0%	0%
14	LeGarrette Blount	941	77%	23%	7%	70%	21%	3%	0%
15	Bobby Rainey	566	76%	24%	4%	72%	23%	1%	0%

The names on this chart include the players you’d generally categorize together as between-the-tackle, early-down backs and/or those on run-heavy teams.

A popular 2014 fantasy sleeper, Khiry Robinson faced Base defense on 65 of his 75 carries last season. He averaged a healthy 4.4 YPC. The Saints called a run on 88 of Robinson’s 101 snaps last season.

Next up, we have the backs who did most of their damage against Nickel and Dime defenses.

Rk	Player	Yds	<5	>4	<4	Base	Nickel	Dime	>6
68	Shane Vereen	260	3%	97%	0%	3%	60%	30%	8%
67	Darren Sproles	248	4%	96%	0%	4%	85%	11%	0%
66	Brandon Bolden	271	6%	94%	0%	5%	60%	34%	0%
65	Reggie Bush	982	13%	87%	0%	13%	82%	5%	0%
64	Knowshon Moreno	1196	17%	83%	0%	17%	67%	16%	0%
63	LeSean McCoy	1677	19%	81%	0%	19%	78%	3%	0%
62	Danny Woodhead	512	20%	80%	0%	20%	65%	13%	2%
61	Montee Ball	655	20%	80%	1%	19%	54%	26%	0%
60	James Starks	522	22%	78%	0%	22%	71%	7%	0%
59	Ronnie Hillman	218	24%	76%	0%	23%	71%	5%	0%
58	Andre Ellington	620	25%	75%	0%	25%	63%	10%	2%
57	Bilal Powell	659	26%	74%	4%	22%	61%	13%	0%
56	Ray Rice	660	32%	68%	4%	28%	55%	13%	0%
55	Donald Brown	647	36%	64%	4%	32%	38%	26%	0%
54	Eddie Lacy	1259	37%	63%	0%	37%	61%	2%	0%

A pair of Patriots and Darren Sproles stand out here. Vereen only saw Base on three of his 53 carries. Bolden only saw Base on seven of his 55 tries. With Blount and Stevan Ridley handling early-down work for New England, Vereen and Bolden did their damage on clear passing downs. Sproles, meanwhile, saw Base on just three of 59 carries. Over the past six years, Sproles has a 4.1 YPC against Base, 5.3 YPC against Nickel, and a massive 7.8 YPC on 62 tries against Dime.

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Moving right along, I think there’s something to be said for backs who are exceptional running against base defenses. The next chart shows the backs (min. 50 carries) with the highest YPC against Base defenses last season.

Rk	Running Back	Car	YPC	TD
1	DeMarco Murray	130	5.7	3
2	LeGarrette Blount	121	5.4	6
3	Kendall Hunter	64	5.4	2
4	Jamaal Charles	165	5.1	3
5	Mark Ingram	86	4.9	1
6	Alfred Morris	229	4.7	4
7	Arian Foster	84	4.6	1
8	Fred Jackson	115	4.5	4
9	Adrian L. Peterson	221	4.4	5
10	LeSean McCoy	73	4.4	3
11	Khiry Robinson	65	4.4	0
12	Frank Gore	258	4.3	2

DeMarco Murray gets a bad rap because of his poor durability, but he’s a good player. Murray paced all backs with a 5.7 YPC against Base last season. And he did it on 130 hauls, which was 17th-highest in the league. We also see aforementioned Blount, Ingram, and Morris in the Top 6.

Next up, we have the backs with the poorest production against Base defense.

Rk	Running Back	Car	YPC	TD
47	Ray Rice	76	2.4	1
46	Willis McGahee	95	2.5	0
45	Bilal Powell	55	2.6	0
44	Steven Jackson	77	2.6	3
43	Doug Martin	81	2.7	1
42	Bernard Pierce	70	2.8	1
41	Maurice Jones-Drew	142	2.8	2
40	Trent Richardson	117	2.8	0
39	Daniel Thomas	51	2.9	2
38	Rashard Mendenhall	150	2.9	3
37	Le'Veon Bell	112	3.0	2
36	Jacquizz Rodgers	52	3.3	1

The Jets and Falcons have been rumored to be looking into upgrades at tailback. This chart helps explain why. Bilal Powell averaged just 2.6 YPC against Base. He just missed the cut for this list, but the other half of the Jets’ 2013 tailback committee, Chris Ivory, managed a 3.3 YPC vs. Base. In fairness, though, Both Powell and Ivory fared well against Nickel and Dime. Steven Jackson, meanwhile, put up an ugly 2.6 YPC against Base. His 4.7 YPC against Nickel was much better.

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So far, our focus has been on players. Our next chart splits the data by team.

Rk	Team	Att	<5	>4	<4	Base	Nickel	Dime	>6
1	SF	447	92%	8%	14%	78%	7%	2%	0%
2	MIN	363	83%	17%	5%	78%	16%	1%	0%
3	CAR	249	82%	18%	2%	80%	17%	1%	0%
4	WAS	338	82%	18%	2%	80%	17%	1%	0%
5	SL	373	81%	19%	3%	78%	18%	1%	0%
6	OAK	273	80%	20%	7%	73%	14%	5%	1%
7	TEN	392	77%	23%	6%	70%	19%	4%	0%
8	HST	391	74%	26%	2%	72%	22%	4%	0%
9	CLV	271	73%	27%	6%	68%	23%	3%	0%
10	TB	380	71%	29%	4%	67%	28%	1%	0%
11	CIN	417	70%	30%	5%	65%	28%	2%	0%
12	KC	360	69%	31%	4%	65%	27%	4%	0%
13	NYG	356	69%	31%	4%	65%	27%	4%	1%
14	NO	387	68%	32%	4%	64%	28%	4%	0%
15	SEA	474	65%	35%	6%	59%	32%	2%	1%
16	BUF	442	63%	37%	2%	61%	35%	2%	0%
17	JAX	333	62%	38%	5%	57%	30%	8%	0%
18	IND	355	61%	39%	8%	53%	31%	8%	0%
19	DAL	310	61%	39%	4%	57%	38%	2%	0%
20	ARZ	376	60%	40%	3%	57%	38%	2%	1%
21	NE	488	58%	42%	5%	54%	33%	8%	0%
22	CHI	352	58%	42%	5%	53%	39%	3%	0%
23	MIA	297	54%	46%	4%	50%	38%	8%	0%
24	ATL	300	53%	47%	3%	50%	43%	3%	0%
25	PIT	350	53%	47%	5%	47%	45%	2%	0%
26	NYJ	349	52%	48%	4%	48%	42%	6%	0%
27	BLT	371	47%	53%	7%	40%	42%	11%	0%
28	SD	489	45%	55%	3%	42%	44%	10%	1%
29	GB	418	37%	63%	1%	36%	59%	4%	0%
30	PHI	423	24%	76%	0%	23%	74%	2%	0%
31	DET	393	23%	77%	0%	23%	68%	9%	0%
32	DEN	495	22%	78%	2%	21%	62%	15%	0%
	NFL Avg	12012	61%	39%	4%	56%	35%	5%	0%

Based on the Gore and Kendall Hunter numbers we’ve seen, it shouldn’t a surprise to see that 92 percent of rushing attempts by 49ers’ backs are against Base defenses. Unless San Francisco begins to struggle, or overhauls their offense, it’s fair to expect similar numbers in 2014. Life won’t be easy for Gore, Hunter, or de facto rookie Marcus Lattimore.

On the other hand, we have (again, no surprise) the Broncos. Of the team’s 495 carries, 78 percent were against Nickel or “easier” defenses. This bodes well for Ball and whoever ends up just behind him on the depth chart (currently C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman).

The biggest surprise on this list is Cleveland. Under head coach Rod Chudzinski and offensive coordinator Norv Turner, the Browns were the league’s pass-heaviest team. But they still ran the ball against fewer than five defensive backs 73 percent of the time. That’s some seriously predictable play-calling and potentially a cause for concern for Vikings fans.

You should also notice that I included the NFL-wide splits on this chart. Note that 56 percent of all carries came against a Base defense last season. Just over one third were against Nickel.

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That does it for the meat of the article, but, if you’re following closely, you’re probably thinking “Hey, but if the defense is in nickel or dime, the back probably has less blocking help!”

That’s correct. And it’s something I investigated. It turns out that, on a majority of carries, adding the number of blockers as a variable made little to no difference on YPC.

The below graph shows the impact blocking help has on NFL YPC over the last six seasons. Offensive blockers include offensive linemen, fullbacks, and tight ends. The number of defensive players includes all non-defensive backs. The ‘+/-’ number you see is the difference between the two. For example, a ‘1’ indicates that the back had one more blocker than the defense had non-defensive backs on the field.

+/-	YPC	Sample
-2	2.6	114
-1	3.8	3342
0	4.29	51685
1	4.23	17084
2	4.5	622

As you can see from the chart, running backs are at an even or plus-one advantage in terms of blockers to non-defensive backs on 94 percent of carries. The YPC difference between the two scenarios is just over a half yard. I applied these “expected” YPC numbers to each back and, as you probably guessed, the impact was almost nil.

Put simply, except in the extremes, while it’s fair to wonder if the influence of extra defensive backs is eliminated by fewer blockers, it turns out that it really isn’t. Score one for coaches who spread out the defense and run the ball (like Chip Kelly).

Follow Mike Clay on Twitter: @MikeClayNFL

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