• RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers – Over 14.5 carries: With the weather and injury report stacking against the 49ers, it will take a monumental effort from this team’s most talented weapon if it hopes to stay competitive in this matchup with a quality opponent like Buffalo.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills (-6) [Total: 44.5]
Game Overview
Snow. Wind. Cold.
You can’t have December football in Buffalo, New York without a blizzard bearing down ahead of a pivotal matchup. With up to three feet of snow and blistering cold frozen winds in the forecast, this Sunday night matchup is shaping up to be a messy battle in brutal conditions.
Given the highly unfavorable weather, the betting trends take on a slightly skewed view as both teams will have to broadly adjust their approach to contend with the conditions and find production however they can.
Instead, projecting how game script will be affected can give valuable insight and reads into the markets. One of those is the impact adverse conditions have on playcalling, as offenses prioritize ball security over explosive offense — generally leading to a reduction in passing production and an increase to rushing volume. During Week 12’s Thursday night matchup — dubbed the Snow Globe game — the Steelers and Browns combined for 61 carries and a 50% run rate, well above the league average of 39.24%.
In terms of fitting the run, Buffalo ranks fifth this season in EPA per rush allowed, while the Niners rank just 21st. Securing tackles against the run has been a bit of a struggle for this 49ers defense — tallying 57 this season — largely contributing to their bottom-five team run-defense grade (52.7).
Additionally, the injury report continues to fall out of San Francisco’s favor, with key leaders in the trenches — LT Trent Williams (ankle) and ED Nick Bosa (hip/oblique) — ruled out for this game.
RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers: Over 14.5 carries (-110)
With the weather and injury report stacking against the 49ers, it will take a monumental effort from this team’s most talented weapon if San Francisco hopes to stay competitive in this matchup with a quality opponent like Buffalo.
Since his return, McCaffrey has only eclipsed this volume in one of his three games, but that isn’t for lack of workload, as he’s totaling over 79% of the offense’s designed carries. Pair that with Brock Purdy dealing with an injury to his throwing shoulder that kept him out of the team’s Week 12 matchup — although he is expected to play this week — and it’s a recipe for a boom in rushing volume for the talented back.
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