Evaluating the performance of a running back is one of the most difficult tasks that an analyst faces. Other offensive positions are easier. The quarterback completes the pass, the wide receiver catches the ball, the center makes the block and, for the most part, it’s cut and dried. The problem with a running back is that a large part their success is reliant on their teammates. No running back is going to rush for 1,000 yards if they have defensive lineman in the backfield on every handoff, whereas any running back in the league could run for 1,000 yards if their offensive line gives them a 5-yard push and a gaping hole every play. How do you take away outside influences and quantify a running back's performance?
To answer this, PFF grades each running back on every play, but for those of a more numerical inclination we’ve also created some signature stats for the running back position. This particular one, Breakaway Percentage, tries to measure how much a defense needs to worry about the running back because of his ability to break a big play.
The percentage is calculated by taking the yards gained on runs over 15 yards and dividing it by the player's total rushing yards. So while it certainly helps to have a good line in front of you, game-changing running backs can shine through regardless.
*Note the qualifying threshold through four weeks is set at 30 carries.
Now that we understand what Breakaway Percentage is trying to quantify, let’s look at some notable performances so far around the league. Jamaal Charles leads the NFL in both Breakaway Percentage (50.7%) and Breakaway Yards (214). This should come as no surprise as his four runs of over 15 yards went for 91, 46, 40, and 37 yards. Alfred Morris leads all rookies with the ninth highest percentage (the highest ever finish by a rookie was LeGarrette Blount who placed first in 2010), even though 11 other backs were taken ahead of him in the 2012 draft. On the surface it would appear veteran Frank Gore is having an outstanding year, as he is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, the second best average of his career. However, his Breakaway Percentage is his lowest since PFF started keeping track of these stats in 2008. This suggests his performance jump is due more to offensive line play than anything else, as San Francisco’s line has been excellent.
Of backs that are non-featured or split carries, there are quite a few guys that are making a strong case for more carries. Buffalo fans have to be begging Chan Gailey to give C.J. Spiller more carries. On only 41 carries Spiller is averaging an insane 8.3 yards per carry, to go along with his equally crazy 52.8 Breakaway Percentage. Journeyman Andre Brown is putting together a fine season and already has four breakaway runs, compared to Ahmad Bradshaw’s one. Hopefully Brown will get more carries per game going forward than the meager five he received last Sunday against the Eagles.
Here are the Top and Bottom 10s in Breakaway Percentage so far for 2012:
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This is a statistic where the low end may be more indicative than the high end. Five qualifying backs have zero breakaway runs and three teams, the Packers, Jets, and Steelers have not had any running back go for at least 15 yards (although it should be noted that Tim Tebow did have one). It is no wonder that each has disappointed so far. It is still tough to win in the NFL without the potential threat of the run.
These numbers are sure to fluctuate over the course of a season, as one long run can greatly impact a runner's percentage. At the end of the season they will paint a more complete picture. Some familiar faces are bound to end up towards the top though. Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, and Darren McFadden have all been consistently at, or near, the top in Breakaway Percentage. It is interesting because they have three different running styles that allow them to be home-run threats. With the growing importance of the passing game, getting big plays out of the running game is at a premium with the fewer carries backs are receiving. Having a running back high on this list can only be a good thing.
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