After weeks of speculation that Marshawn Lynch was considering retirement, he and the Seahawks finally came to a resolution on a three-year, $31 million deal that will make him the third highest paid running back in the league. The move will have a rippling effect on the fantasy landscape in both re-draft and dynasty leagues.
In the short-term, this locks Lynch in as an elite RB1 for at least another season. Despite nagging back woes, Lynch played in all 16 games for the third straight year. His 280 carries marked the first time in those three years that he did not exceed 300 carries.
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That relatively limited amount of use bodes well for his continued production, which was as good as ever in 2014. Despite 21 less carries, he gained 49 more yards than the year before, increasing his per carry average from 4.2 to 4.7 and scoring a career high 17 total touchdowns. He showed no signs of decline this year and I would still draft him with confidence in the first round of seasonal leagues.
In dynasty leagues, I think this creates an excellent sell opportunity for Lynch owners. Coming off a strong season with a brand new contract, the clouds of doubt that were hanging over Lynch’s dynasty value have parted slightly. I would try to take advantage.
He will be 29 years old in April and chances are his value will never be higher than it is now. Inquire about his price to a running back-needy contender in your league. Considering he is just behind Kevin White in terms of February dynasty ADP at 42 overall (courtesy of DynastyLeagueFootball.com), he should still be able to fetch a quality first round rookie pick.
On the flip side of that coin, this is a pretty big blow for Christine Michael’s dynasty value. His path to playing time is blocked for at least another season. He will be creeping up on age 26 at the start of the 2016 season, which would leave him with a couple of peak athletic years left, but that will provide little consolation for owners who invested first round rookie draft capital in him two years ago.
At 110 overall, it seems that the dynasty community was already souring on Michael. I would expect that ADP to drop even further as he is currently just ahead of backs like Devonta Freeman and CJ Spiller, who figure to see expanded roles in 2015. I personally believe in Michael’s talent, so if such a drop does occur I would be buying.
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