Bet: Deebo Samuel anytime TD (-120 DraftKings): Samuel has 3 TDs in past 4 games when Trey Lance attempts a pass.
Bet: Tyler Lockett U 3.5 receptions (+120 on DraftKings): Player prop tool identifies a 10.3% edge on Lockett UNDER 3.5.
Bet: Seahawks-49ers O 41 (-115 DraftKings): PFF Greenline finds 1.2% value on OVER 41.
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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-8.5)
• Total: 41
• Team Totals: Seahawks (15.5), 49ers (24.5).
Seahawks Offense vs. 49ers Defense
• Seahawks riding high: In their Monday night win against former Seattle QB Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos, new QB Geno Smith came out of the gate on fire, completing 4-of-4 passes for 69 yards and punctuating Seattle's opening drive with a 38-yard TD pass to Will Dissly. Smith finished the game 23-of-28 with 196 yards passing, two touchdowns, and a PFF grade of 84.3 — the second-highest QB grade of Week 1, only behind Josh Allen (91.5)
• Seattle O-line has another tall task: After allowing the second-highest pressure rate (31%) in Week 1, the Seahawks must fend off Nick Bosa, Javon Kinlaw and Arik Armstead in their matchup with the 49ers. Despite the offensive line struggles, Smith excelled under pressure, with a 153.1 passer rating and 87.5% completion percentage — both the top respective marks of Week 1.
Niners superior to Denver: This 49ers' front 7 is a tad better than what Smith faced against the Broncos; he will have to continue his success under pressure if they have any chance to pull off another upset.
Bet: OVER 41 (-115 DK): Greenline shows 1.2% value for this game to go over the total.
49ers Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
Block out the noise: Week 2 can be challenging to handicap as it brings a lot of noise and overreactions. Some media outlets are already calling for Jimmy Garoppolo to regain the starting QB position. We all saw the weather conditions at Soldier Field last week, and we agree that we should remove most of that game from memory and move on. We knoe Trey Lance did not look great, but neither did Justin Fields, who seems to be receiving a free pass.
Lance rebound: We're expecting a bounce back for Lance and the 49ers. Kyle Shanahan is arguably one of the better head coaches and more creative play callers in the NFL. San Francisco's offense is full of fast and athletic skill guys, led by Deebo Samuel, and this is where they will need to take advantage.
Starts with Samuel: With an injury to Elijah Mitchell, placed on the IR this week with a knee, veteran Jeff Wilson Jr. is expected to start. But we'll likely see Shanahan play Samuel more in his “wide-back” position, splitting time between the backfield and the WR spots and surely creating mismatches. In Samuel's only game against the Seahawks last year, he had 8 catches for 156 years with 2 touchdowns — both from Lance.
• Sieve Seahawks: Last season, Seattle allowed the most receptions and receiving yards to opposing running backs and have continued that trend this year, permitting 16 receptions and 133 yards to Denver's backfield. The Seahawks were lucky enough to recover two fumbles on the goal line, or they could have allowed two rushing touchdowns as well.
Best Bet: Deebo Samuel anytime TD (-120 DraftKings): Lance and Samuel have great chemistry early on, connecting for three touchdowns over the past four games in which Lance has attempted a pass. Samuel's ability to play out of the backfield adds value.
Seattle Trends
• Seattle is 5-2 SU & ATS in their last 7 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 7 games.
• Seattle is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS against the 49ers in their last 3 meetings
San Francisco Trends
• San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of their last 9 games.
• San Francisco is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against Seattle.
— PFF contributor Kurt Blakeway
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