• A big game in store for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle? The Dolphins face the Bills on Sunday in a game with the second-highest total line of the week, which could bode well for both receivers.
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Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, bettors, and analysts often rely on a wide array of statistics and models to gain a competitive edge. These range from basic box score stats to advanced metrics available in PFF's Premium Stats 2.0 and models like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low model and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is always room for new insights and analyses to help bettors and fantasy managers refine their strategies. That’s why I have developed a new metric that offers several advantages over WOPR. Click here for an in-depth explanation of the model, my process and its advantages.
The Week 8 “route-based heroes” model delivered impressive results.
Calvin Ridley finally broke through, totaling 10 catches for 143 yards. Ridley exemplifies how the model works: a player with consistent or predicted opportunity will eventually have a big game if that opportunity persists.
Demarcus Robinson scored two touchdowns. Regression isn’t always about yards; it can also come through touchdowns. With this performance, his PWOPR is now more in line with his fantasy points per game (FPpG), so he doesn’t appear on this week’s list.
Marvin Harrison Jr. bounced back with six catches for 111 yards and a touchdown, another great call by the model. The rookie had been overlooked by many, but his underlying PWOPR indicated potential all along.
Tyreek Hill, Jerry Jeudy, Tank Dell and Xavier Worthy all performed well in terms of fantasy points, outperforming their season averages, though none had an “explosive” game.
The only two true misses, in my opinion, were Tre Tucker and Jaylen Waddle. Tre Tucker saw a significant drop in Predicted WOPR, from 0.61 in Week 7 to 0.47 in Week 8, almost certainly due to the return of the Raiders’ top receiver, Jakobi Meyers, who posted a 0.62 PWOPR in Week 8. Jaylen Waddle had his second-best PWOPR of the season and is now ranked No. 1 this week in Predicted FPpG. Watch out for an imminent breakout game.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATES FOR WEEK 9
As a quick reminder of how regression-to-the-mean models work, I predict a player’s FPpG based on their three-week PWOPR (explained more here).
PWOPR is much more stable than FPpG and is a stronger indicator of future performance. To identify potential breakout candidates, I calculate the residual by subtracting the player’s predicted FPpG from their actual FPpG. Players with a good PWOPR and a residual of -3 or lower appear on this list. Players will continue to appear until one of the following occurs:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a big game
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their expected FPpG
Now, let’s review some names on the Week 9 list:
Jaylen Waddle tops the list after having one of his best PWOPR performances. Tyreek Hill had a decent game last week, but it wasn’t enough to match his PWOPR. The Dolphins face the Bills on Sunday in a game with the second-highest total line of the week, which could bode well for both receivers. The Bills employ the fourth-highest two-high-safety rate in the league this season and rank 10th in that category over the last month. While two-high-safety looks don’t necessarily prevent big plays, they tend to suppress elite performances from wide receivers.
Calvin Ridley appears on the list again, largely because of his previously low FPpG. He still has ground to make up to reach his PWOPR, but in a lackluster offense, expectations should remain tempered. However, Ridley faces the Patriots this week—the team that allows the most single-coverage targets. Ridley’s target share increases by 0.17 in single-coverage situations, making this an ideal matchup for him to deliver back-to-back big games.
Davante Adams and Rome Odunze both face teams that give up a ton of targets in single-coverage situations. Adams and Odunze both benefit immensely from single-coverage chances. I expect both to be in a good position for an upside performance this week.
Jordan Addison is set to face a Colts defense that ranks in the top 10 in single-high coverage rate over the past month and in the top six for the season. Single-high coverages often create opportunities for elite wide receiver performances, as Josh Hermsmeyer explains in his Substack.
I suspect Jerry Jeudy will continue to see his FPpG increase to match his PWOPR with his recent upgrade at QB. Other Browns wide receivers seem to be emerging, though, which could hold him back from truly elite performances.
Alec Pierce could see a boost in expectations with Joe Flacco leading the passing attack. Pierce posted an impressive 0.77 PWOPR in Week 7, followed by a more modest 0.34 in Week 8, highlighting his potential in this offense and his ability to deliver a breakout performance any week. The Vikings run the top two-high safety defense both on the season and over the past month, which typically limits elite wide receiver performances. However, Pierce has the second-highest receiving grade against two-high-safety looks on the team—a promising sign.
As always, not every player on this list will deliver, but they all have an elevated probability of an explosive game (as we saw with Marvin Harrison Jr., Demarcus Robinson, and Calvin Ridley last week).
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