On Wednesday the Jacksonville Jaguars added two key players to their offense by signing wide receiver Laurent Robinson and quarterback Chad Henne. Robinson landed a five-year, $32.5 million contract with $13.8 million guaranteed, and Henne agreed to a two-year, $6.75 million deal (source: @taniaganguli).
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Robinson and Henne hope to revive a Jags passing attack that struggled mightily last season with rookie Blaine Gabbert at the helm. The Jaguars offense finished dead last in first downs, passing yards, and yards gained per passing attempt. Six teams doubled the Jags' abysmal output of 2,179 passing yards, and Maurice Jones-Drew provided the only glimmer of hope in the fantasy wasteland that was Northern Florida in 2011.
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Robinson had a slow, injury-riddled start to his career, totaling only 1,000 yards and four touchdowns in his first four seasons. However, he was able to stay healthy in 2011, finishing the year as Dallas' top fantasy receiver by scoring 11 touchdowns on 858 yards in 14 games. Robinson wanted to return to the Cowboys in 2012, but it came as little surprise that Dallas was unable to make a competitive enough offer to retain his services as their fourth pass catcher behind Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten.
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Henne began 2011 as the Dolphins starting quarterback after mixed success as their starter the previous two seasons. Unfortunately, he separated his shoulder in week four, missed the rest of the year, and was no longer the long-term solution in Miami.
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Henne is really a backup-caliber quarterback, but signing with Jacksonville was one of the few situations where he could genuinely compete for the starting job, currently held by Blaine Gabbert. Teams typically have a tough time benching a top-10 draft pick in their second season, but the new owner and coaching staff were not responsible for drafting Gabbert. It's easy to imagine Gabbert continuing to struggle, leaving the Jaguars no choice but to start Henne. At the very least, the Jags are hedging that one of their mediocre quarterbacks will step up to lead their team to more success than last year.
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Fantasy Spin:
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Laurent Robinson
Much of Robinson's success in Dallas last year was tied to his high touchdown rate and an ability to improvise with a scrambling Tony Romo on plays like this key fourth-quarter touchdown on Thanksgiving Day. Replicating that output and chemistry would have been difficult with any team, but doing it with the Gabbert/Henne tandem is going to be a real challenge. Robinson gets a small bump in value just from the sheer volume of opportunities he should see as the Jaguars' number one receiver, but temper your expectations. His move to Jacksonville is a marginal improvement over staying in Dallas. Add in lingering concerns about his ability to stay healthy, and he's a WR3 at best, ranked just outside of my top 30.
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Blaine Gabbert
Just when it seemed like Gabbert's fantasy value couldn't get any worse, Henne arrives in Jacksonville to compete for his starting job. While Henne isn't stiff competition, he'll seem like Tom Brady compared to Gabbert's biggest competition last year, Luke McCown. Amongst quarterbacks that were the primary starters for their teams last season, Gabbert was the only one with a negative PFF rating in every single game. Gabbert has a long way to go, and it would not surprise me if Henne were the starting quarterback in week one. Gabbert is definitely not ownable.
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Chad Henne
Henne's biggest issues in Miami were inconsistency and throwing interceptions during critical moments. The former University of Michigan standout will improve slightly on these shortcomings and flash just enough glimpses of potential to steal the starting job from Gabbert. This will give the Jaguars a minor upgrade over last year, and more importantly, give Robinson enough opportunities to maintain his fantasy relevance. Even as the starting quarterback, Henne will reside permanently outside of the top-20 in weekly projections and should only be drafted in deep, two-quarterback leagues.
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Maurice Jones-Drew
A total of 209 yards separated the Jaguars' passing and rushing offenses last year. While that's mostly due to the Jaguars' passing woes, it also points to the effectiveness of the ground game. Jones-Drew was key to that effectiveness, driving his fantasy value to all-time highs. It's likely that his 1980 all-purpose yards will be the peak for his career, but his situation in the coming year can't get any worse than what he overcame in 2011. The improvements to the passing game will open up more opportunities for him to sustain the high level of performance he has maintained for the majority of his six-year career. He's an elite, top-five running back.
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Mike Thomas
By default, Mike Thomas is the second best fantasy option in the Jaguars' passing attack. He's the only player on the Jaguars roster other than Robinson who has topped 700 receiving yards in a single season. Thomas should benefit from a healthy quarterback competition and Robinson drawing defensive attention, but he's still outside the top 50 receivers and doesn't have a lot of upside. If you're starting any Jacksonville pass-catchers not named Laurent Robinson, your fantasy team is in trouble.
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In short, steer clear of everyone in Jacksonville except for Robinson and MJD. Be careful not to over-inflate Robinson's value just because he's the number one receiver. Don't assume Henne was signed just to be the backup, but more importantly, the quarterback that emerges as the starter still isn't worth considering for your fantasy team. Jaguars fans have reason for some optimism, but let's be honest, the passing offense can't get much worse than Gabbert's rookie year.
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For an in-depth analysis on how Robinson's departure from Dallas impacts the Cowboys' passing attack, be sure to check out my earlier article comparing Bryant, Austin, and Robinson. Visit our fantasy articles page to keep up with our detailed analysis of each of the big free-agent signings.
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