How much does preseason performance translate to success in the regular season and beyond? That will be a question on everyone’s minds for the next month as the NFL starts preseason action with Thursday’s Hall of Fame game between the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals. Speaking of the Cowboys, QB Dak Prescott is one player that excelled in the preseason and carried over his success into an AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award (more on him soon).
While I won’t be able to cover every single preseason success story to NFL stardom or every player that struggled in the preseason but turned it around in the regular season, I’ll hit some of the highlights and lowlights. Our grading and signature stats start in 2013 for the preseason so all players noted will be from 2013-2016.
QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, 2016
Whether you want to call it luck or not, the Cowboys found their franchise quarterback and Tony Romo successor in the fourth round of the 2016 draft – the eighth quarterback selected. Prescott seized the opportunity while Romo recovered and then re-injured his back, as the former Mississippi State Bulldog graded as one of the best quarterbacks in the preseason. Prescott threw for an NFL-best 137.8 passer rating, five touchdowns, zero interceptions, 9.1 yards per attempt and a 78.0 percent completion percentage. That completion percentage correlated over into the regular season well, as he saw the fifth highest adjusted completion percentage on third down.
Perhaps the most impressive part of Prescott’s preseason was his ability under pressure; he had a 127.3 passer rating and 80 adjusted completion percentage while under pressure on 47.3 percent of his dropbacks. Add on top of that a 7.7 sack percentage on his pressured dropbacks and Cowboys fans got a taste of what was to come in the 2016 season.
QB Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders, 2014
This one highlights more of a future indicator rather than immediate current season success. As a rookie, Carr played at a high level in the preseason but followed it up with a dreadful regular season performance that led to an 0-10 start for Oakland Raiders. Carr put together a solid stat-line and graded well but had some hiccups that were exacerbated during the regular season. In the preseason, he threw for a passer rating of 108.2, highlighted by throwing four touchdowns to just one interception.
Carr was excellent from a clean pocket with a passer rating of 115.7 and an adjusted completion percentage of 79.5, but when the pressure got to him, which was only 17 percent of his dropbacks, his passer rating plummeted to 59.7 with an adjusted completion percentage of just 40.0. Carr’s struggles under pressure in the preseason were signposts for poor play as a rookie but his overall quality of play and year of experience led to a second-year breakout and eventual rise to top 10 quarterback in the NFL, as noted by his massive lead in deep pass passer rating among his divisional quarterbacks.
QB Brock Osweiler, Houston Texans, 2016
On the opposite side of the spectrum, Brock Osweiler put together an impressive preseason – most importantly an excellent third game – with his new team in Houston, but followed it up with the worst regular season of any quarterback in 2016. In fact, Osweiler started the 2016 regular season very strong with a game grade of 84.5 against Chicago in Week 1. He went on to eventually be benched in favor of Tom Savage to then traded in the offseason to the Cleveland Browns.
Edge Khalil Mack, Oakland Raiders, 2015
Everyone knows how impactful Khalil Mack has been for the Oakland Raiders since entering the NFL. Easily a top 10 player in the league, Mack was excellent as a rookie run defender but still solid as a pass-rusher. His sophomore season was truly where he put it all together and that started in the preseason, where he abused Arizona Cardinals right tackle Bradley Sowell in the third preseason game for two sacks, one hit,and five hurries on just 33 pass-rush snaps. He finished the 2015 preseason as the No. 1 edge defender overall leading to the No. 1 regular season grade. He has kept that up, and turned into the prototypical pass-rusher.
DI Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs, 2016
Jones was a big-time favorite of colleague Mike Renner’s coming out of college, and right out of the gates he made Renner and Chiefs fans very happy. On just 59 preseason snaps, Jones made five tackles and three stops while racking up an impressive eight hurries on 36 just pass-rush snaps. He carried over his high level of play to the regular season where he led all rookie interior defenders and was fourth best overall with a 9.4 pass-rush productivity among interior defenders, totaling two sacks, eight hits and 32 hurries. While the second-year pro will need to dial back the excessive amount of penalties (eight, fourth most among all DI), his ability as a rusher and a run defender was eye-popping as a rookie.
C Travis Frederick, Dallas Cowboys, 2013
Arguably the best center in the NFL today, those looking at Frederick’s rookie preseason wouldn’t have predicted that, as he struggled to adjust to the NFL game. While he didn’t put together the worst preseason of any center by any means, he struggled mightily in the all-important third preseason game against Cincinnati as Geno Atkins caused him problems all game. Frederick fared decently well as a pass-protector, allowing just three hurries on 96 pass block snaps, but his missteps in the run game were noteworthy.
Two games into his rookie season, the former Wisconsin Badger continued to look outmatched but his struggles were in pass protection, as he allowed two sacks, one hit and three hurries and posted the worst pass-protection grade of any center in the NFL. Those struggles ended there as he quickly turned around his season en-route to the sixth best grade at 84.0.
He still wasn’t great in pass protection but allowed only two more sacks and one more hit the rest of the season, grading out an average level. Impressively, Frederick was the No. 1 run blocking center in the NFL as a rookie after posting the fifth worst run blocking grade in the preseason (out of 79 centers). Frederick has kept up that success, four years into his career, as he finished this past season as the Cowboys highest graded player.
WR Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars, 2015 & 2016
Robinson has had an interesting past two seasons, both pre- and regular. As a second-year player, Robinson was a fantasy darling and helped elevate Blake Bortles to an impressive year that led everyone to believe the Jaguars were primed for a playoff run, but looking at the 2015 preseason, no one would have predicted the success the former Penn State Nittany Lion would have in the regular season. On 15 targets, Robinson hauled in just seven catches, dropping three and grading as one of the worst wide receivers of the preseason. However, he turned that atrocious preseason into one fine regular season as he amassed 1,400 yards, 14 touchdowns, a season grade of 87.5 and an impressive 2.17 yards per route run.
On the opposite end of the spectrum in 2016, Robinson put together the best preseason of any wide receiver and followed it up with a rather disappointing regular season as he failed to come close to his lofty 2015 numbers. Catching nine of ten targets for 124 yards and committing zero drops, Robinson looked like he was picking up in the 2016 preseason, where he left off in 2015. But he didn’t follow up on an excellent sophomore season and third preseason, as his 74.9 season graded ranked 56th among eligible wide receivers. A 50.7 percent catch rate, nine drops, six touchdowns, 883 yards and 1.33 yards per route run were all he could muster in 2016, leaving fantasy owners very disappointed.
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