Last time, I broke down what needed to happen for each AFC team to make the playoffs. This week the NFC is up. Only six will make it, but right now almost everyone has a chance. Here’s what needs to go right:
NFC East
The Cowboys season lives and dies on the backs of their secondary this year. The secondary that got scorched earth by Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs actually looks worse on paper now than it did then. Gone are Brandon Carr (75.3 overall grade), J.J. Wilcox (81.5), Barry Church (87.1), and Morris Claiborne (84.7). Someone between Nolan Carroll, Orlando Scandrick, Anthony Brown, and rookies Jourdan Lewis, Chidobe Awuzie and Xavier Woods needs to step up in a big way. Even if the secondary completely falls apart, the offense is still good enough to carry them to the playoffs, but it’s no sure thing.
Unlike the Los Angeles Rams and second-year QB Jared Goff, the Eagles don’t even need huge strides from their second-year quarterback to make the playoffs in 2017. Carson Wentz’ 78.3 overall grade last year wasn’t amazing, but it was certainly good enough to lead a team to the playoffs. And even though they went 7-9 last year, the Eagles could have just as easily made the playoffs. They went 1-6 in games decided by one score and had a better point differential than five of the 12 playoff teams. All they need is to flip that record in close games. With the additions of Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith, Derek Barnett and Ronald Darby, that looks very possible.
On paper, the Giants defense only looks better in 2017. That’s why their fate falls on Eli Manning not to completely fall off a cliff. With the weapons he has, that looks nearly impossible, but the trend Manning is on is concerning. His overall grade has gotten worse each of the past two seasons, and his 70.5 grade last year was his worst since 2006. That trend has to reverse.
The Redskins defense has to be better than it was in 2016 for them to make the playoffs. The only two teams to allow more points than the Redskins last year and still make the playoffs were the Packers and the Falcons. Washington is not matching up offensively with either. The concerning thing is, it’s difficult to pinpoint where they got better on that side of the ball. Jonathan Allen should make an impact as a rookie, Zach Brown could be an improvement at linebacker, and D.J. Swearinger comes over after a breakout year at safety, but they lost Chris Baker, Ricky Jean-Francois, and Trent Murphy (injury) from the front seven. The No. 2 corner spot is still an issue as well. They’ll need Bashaud Breeland and Preston Smith to have big years to have a chance.
NFC North
The Bears are the first team in the NFC where I can’t reasonably see a path to the playoffs.
A lot had to go right for the Lions to end up in the playoffs a season ago. The same appears true in 2017. The biggest reasons for concern occur on both the offensive and defensive lines. Greg Robinson is penciled as starter with Taylor Decker injured and he’s been a bottom-five left tackle every year of his career. Defensively, Haloti Ngata is well past his prime and managed a measly 17 pressures all last year. Their most productive defensive lineman last year, Kerry Hyder, has already been sidelined for the season with an ACL injury. They’ll need A’Shawn Robinson to breakout in year two, and Ziggy Ansah to have a career-year in order to pick up the slack.
Nearly anything can happen defensively and the Packers will still make the playoffs on the backs of this offense. If Aaron Rodgers maintains his play down the stretch last year for the course of a whole season he could probably drag some college defenses to the playoffs. They just need to stay healthy along the offensive line to give Rodgers the time to work his magic and they’ll be in the playoffs once again.
Offensive line. That’s really it. They have to make a huge leap. They’ve added Riley Reiff, Pat Elflein and Mike Remmers in the hopes of doing just that. Last year they ranked 29th in pass blocking and 23rd in run blocking. Minnesota running backs didn’t even average a yard before contact (30th in NFL). Everything else screams playoff team outside of the offensive line.
NFC South
The Bucs are another team that simply needs the pieces they’ve acquired on paper to translate on the field. That can be easier said than done though. DeSean Jackson, O.J. Howard and J.R. Sweezy look like they’ll make the Bucs offense one of the league’s best. The key player for them though will be second year cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III. He led the league last year with 1,069 yards allowed in his coverage. That has to get considerably better. Through two preseason games, he’s only allowed 27 yards on 3-of-7 targets.
For the representative of the NFC to simply return to the playoffs, they need to go about business as usual. That could be difficult with all the coaching turnover they suffered, but the roster is loaded with young talent on both sides of the ball that should only be improving.
Cam Newton’s shoulder and accuracy issues from 2016 have to be solved. He had the lowest adjusted completion percentage of any quarterback in the league against man coverage a season ago. Even though he’s a threat to beat teams with his legs, he’ll see more and more man if that continues. There’s reason to think the additions of Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel can help that out, but Newton still has to hit them.
The obvious answer here is fix the pass defense, but that seems much easier said than done in New Orleans. Here are their team coverage grades over the past three seasons: 31st (2016), 32nd (2015), 31st (2014). They need Marshon Lattimore to hit the ground running as well as a healthy P.J. Williams and Delvin Breaux.
NFC West
The 49ers should be improved, but with massive holes up and down the roster, I can’t envision a scenario where they head back to the playoffs.
Even though the Cardinals saw a considerable fall from grace in 2016, they still owned the fourth-best point differential of any team in the NFC (+56). What I’m saying is they’re still playoff caliber. They simply need to protect Carson Palmer better. With his injury history at 37 years of age, getting pressured on 38.5 percent of his dropbacks (seventh-highest rate in NFL) like he was a season ago isn’t sustainable. He was able to overcome that in 2015 with a ludicrous 95.6 passer rating under pressure, but that was a stark outlier over the course of his career. Last year he was at a much more reasonable 62.4 and the offense suffered accordingly. Protect him better, and they’ll be in the hunt.
With a revamped offensive line and the additions of Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Gerald Everett on the outside, the Rams are closer than their 4-12 record last year suggests. If Jared Goff becomes the franchise quarterback they expected if to be when they drafted him No. 1 overall, they’ll be in the mix. Through the first two preseason games, the results couldn’t be more encouraging. Goff had been the highest graded quarterback this preseason of anyone to work exclusively with the No. 1 offense.
Very much like the Falcons, Cowboys and Packers, if the Seahawks can stay healthy and maintain the status quo, they should once again make the playoffs.
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