Below is the fifth installment of our weekly PFFELO rankings. Like all ELO systems, PFFELO is an iterative system that updates each team’s rating after each game based on two things: how well they played against their opponent and how well they were expected to play against their opponent. The PFFELO rating system measures the former using our unique offensive, defensive and special teams grades, while the latter is determined by the PFFELO ratings leading up to the game and where the game is played.
For example, a heavy favorite playing at home is expected to outplay the visitor, so a victory would result in only a small rise in their PFFELO rating and a similarly-small decrease in the defeated team’s, but if an upset were to happen, the visiting team would see their PFFELO rating rise substantially, and the home team’s see a similarly-sized drop.
Sometimes in football the best team does not win, and PFFELO accounts for these oddities by using our grades. Hence there will be teams rated higher or lower in this system than their win-loss record would suggest.
1.
LAST WEEK: 3
After holding off an upstart Washington team at home on Monday night, the Chiefs make their first appearance atop of the PFFELO rating system. The league’s lone undefeated team possesses a quarterback in Alex Smith that hasn’t committed a turnover through four games, and whose PFF grade (86.2 – third among quarterbacks) reflects this. Smith’s adjusted completion percentage (86.0), passer rating on deep passes (147.3) and passer rating with using play action (119.5) are first among his position group, while his passer rating when pressured (134.5) is second only to Tom Brady.
2.
LAST WEEK: 2
Defense is a real problem for the Patriots, and it starts with their inability to cover on the back end. They are allowing almost a full adjusted net yard more than the next-worst pass defense, while free-agent signing Stephon Gilmore (48.8) and holdover Malcolm Butler (80.3) have both allowed more than a 100.0 passer rating into their coverage through the first quarter of the season. The last time they started 2-2 they won the Super Bowl, so it’s likely Bill Belichick and company will find a solution to this problem, but prospects look bleak through four weeks.
3.
LAST WEEK: 1
Matt Ryan, who led the league in passer rating on deep passes, when kept clean, and with no play action a season ago (while finishing in the top five in almost every other category), has regressed substantially through the first quarter of this season. For example, he’s completed only 20 percent of his 15 deep passes so far, and has a passer rating of 64.4 when pressured (versus 87.7 a season ago). Injuries to Julio Jones and Mohamad Sanu hurt Ryan against the Bills Sunday. With at least Sanu to be out for a few weeks, look for Ryan and Co. to lean on the ground game (where they’ve averaged 4.7 yards a carry) against the Dolphins when they come back from their bye.
4,
LAST WEEK: 10
We were more than ready to fade the Panthers last week as they came off a horrible home loss to the Saints and were going into Foxboro to face the Patriots. With Cam Newton returning somewhat to his 2015 form, the Panthers were able to take advantage of a poor New England defense and steal that game. They take this momentum, along with linebackers Luke Kuechly (89.8), Thomas Davis (82.1) and Shaq Thompson (72.6), into Detroit this weekend to face a Lions team that we have been slow to recognize as upper tier through the first quarter of the season.
5.
LAST WEEK: 4
The Steelers handled Baltimore this weekend on the strength of Le’Veon Bell, who gained 71 of his 144 yards after contact against a Brandon Williams-less defense, while forcing seven missed tackles along the way. Ben Roethlisberger graded better against the Ravens, but he’s still struggling to complete passes down the field (he was 0-of-5 on deep passes last Sunday). If Pittsburgh can get it going offensively, they can separate themselves in what has become a weak AFC North division through four weeks.
6.
LAST WEEK: 6
The Packers took care of business against the Bears last Thursday, despite losing Davante Adams and Ty Montgomery to injury. While the injuries continue to pile up offensively, Aaron Rodgers (81.0 overall grade) has compensated with his traditional solid play. Despite being under pressure on 35.7 percent of his snaps so far, he’s generated an 87.5 passer rating on those plays, good for fourth among qualifying quarterbacks. The league’s 24th graded defense will have a big test this Sunday on the road against the Cowboys – the defensive side of the ball will likely determine whether the Packers will be considered an upper-echelon team moving forward.
7.
LAST WEEK: 8
While the Broncos’ offense struggled for the second straight week against the Raiders, the Broncos defense compensated by allowed only 10 points to the quarterback combination of Derek Carr and E.J. Manuel. They go into the bye with a dime defense featured all six of its defensive backs with PFF overall grades above 74.6. Add continued stout play in the secondary to a run defense allowing just 2.4 yards per carry, and it’s going to be tough for opponents to move the ball on Denver going forward.
8.
LAST WEEK: 14
The first appearance in the top-10 for the Eagles comes on the heels of their second road win in three tries. The league’s fifth-highest graded offense has gained a boost from the strong play of running back LeGarrette Blount. Blount gained 128 of his 136 yards against Los Angeles last week after contact, averaging an absurd eight such yards per carry while forcing nine missed tackles. If Carson Wentz, who’s third in the league in using play action (26.9 percent), can improve on his 84.2 passer rating in such situations, this offense can be scary moving forward.
9.
LAST WEEK: 11
The Bills started this season as PFFELO’s 16th-highest ranked team. I think most (including me) felt that that was a bit optimistic about a team that appeared to be tanking in August. Three wins in four tries later, it looks prophetic. The fifth-highest graded defense has been the backbone of the team, surrendering just 17 points to the reigning MVP Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons on the road last week. Lorenzo Alexander has acclimated to the new defensive scheme, generating six pressures against the Falcons (bringing his total to 16 for the season). Tre’Davious White has been a fantastic rookie, generating a pass breakup in each of his games so far. They started 4-2 last season, so it’s a real question as to whether they sustain it this time around.
10.
LAST WEEK: 5
Each week we go back and forth regarding whether the Cowboys are going to regress, with them looking good against New York and Arizona and less so against the Broncos and Rams. It’s clear their second-lowest graded run defense is going to be a problem, but the biggest issue has been the relatively erratic play of Dak Prescott. While Prescott has been good when using play action (131.3 rating, fourth among quarterbacks) and when under pressure (86.1, fifth), he’s struggled in other situations, earning just an 81.0 passer rating when not using play action and completing just 5-of-15 passes between the hash marks over the middle of the field. He’ll have to be more consistent if the Cowboys are going to earn their second-straight NFC East title.
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