Week 5 in the NFL was another winning week for our picks, with Seattle and Green Bay coming back from double-digit deficits to not only cover, as we predicted, but win outright. We were 3-2, bringing our season record to 18-6-1 (75%). We’re currently 12-3 (80.0%) on spread picks and 6-3-1 (66.7%) on totals. Overall, We’re 36-25-2 (59.0%) against the spread through five weeks of the NFL season, and on over/unders we’re 41-27-2 (60.0%).
While Thursday Night Football included two of the top six teams in our PFFELO ratings, the week as a whole includes a great deal of uneven matchups, including six games with a spread larger than six points. We’re picking a Kansas City Chiefs game for the third-straight week and the fourth time overall, and we’ve been 2-1 in such picks.
Each of the five feature picks below comes with a point/counterpoint analysis, with a deeper dive into our “Lock of the Week” on the PFF Preview Podcast. The Lock of the Week has hit four of the first five weeks so far (80%). For the remainder of our spread and over/under picks, check out PFF Elite and the PFF Elite Facebook Group. For our thoughts on Thursday Night Football’s spread and over/under, follow us at @PFF_George and @PFF_EricEager on Twitter each week.
San Francisco 49ers @ Washington (-10.5)
Pick: Washington 28-14 (Washington covers)
Point (Eric Eager): While the 49ers have held tough the last four weeks, they are on their third-consecutive road game and playing at 10 AM Pacific Time. Washington, on the other hand, is coming off a bye and off three consecutive weeks of solid play prior to their week off. Their defensive front of Jonathan Allen (80.6 overall grade), Matt Ioannidis (82.7), Ryan Kerrigan (82.0), Junior Galette (78.6), Mason Foster (73.5) and Zach Brown (76.9) will be more than enough to make up for the momentary loss of Josh Norman, especially against a Niners offense that is 28th in the league in our grading system.
Counterpoint (George Chahrouri): As my colleague, Dr. Eager, mentioned the Niners are playing their third straight road game which means they should be used to the time by now, right? This is the largest spread Washington has seen since the last time a White House official unnecessarily used a private jet, another failed cover up seems in order for the District. San Fran has two capable wide receivers in Pierre Garcon (83.2 grade) and Marquise Goodwin (72.4) which could spell trouble for the Spreadskins who will be without Josh Norman and instead relying on Breshaud Breeland who the Chiefs targeted 10 times in Week 4 to the tune of a 121.7 passer rating. As we say every week, don’t let Brian Hoyer get HOT.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets (OVER/UNDER 47.5)
Pick: Patriots 30-20 (the over hits)
Point (EE): While the Patriots had their first under game of the season last Thursday night in Tampa, they have extra days to prepare against Todd Bowles and the (also in first place) 3-2 New York Football Jets. While Tom Brady struggled against the Bucs, he still has the league’s highest grade (91.1) among quarterbacks, and will be facing a defense that is the lowest in the league in our grading system. Speaking of worst in the league, the Pats have allowed an average of 6.9 yards per play (0.7 worse than any other team), meaning that even Josh McCown (fresh off the first three-game winning streak of his career) will put up enough points to blow past the total in this one.
Counterpoint (GC): I initially thought we should stay away from this total because of my suspicion that the Pats would just try to win ugly with both Brady and Rob Gronkowski a bit dinged up. Let us not forget that the Patriots scored a stunning 19 points against a Bucs secondary that embodies the surrounding Tampa Bay nightlife and managed to bottle up former Elite 11 Champion Jameis Winston and his all-world target Mike Evans. To boot, the Jets have only one starting offensive lineman with a grade above 50.0, and that is Kelvin Beachum with a very pedestrian 71.0. McCown has served up 10 turnover-worthy plays (they are what you think they are) to just three Big-Time Throws (our highest graded passes) which is the second-worst ratio in the league behind another former Bear, Jay Cutler. This has the feeling of an over that necessitates a big number from the Pats and who knows what Bill will decide to do during what I can only imagine is a weekly apple picking extravaganza.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals (OVER/UNDER 45)
Pick: Buccaneers 23-20 (the under hits)
Point (GC): With Adrian Peterson on the field the Saints offense gained 3.88 yards per play, without AP on the field they gained 6.37 yards per play (15 second pause for you to do the math). It seems the days where Peterson could just turn on the switch are behind us. The Cardinals offense has been nothing short of dreadful so far, in large part because the offensive line has surrendered a league-leading 102 QB pressures (13 of which are sacks, tied for the most) in 247 passing snaps giving them the second-worst pass blocking efficiency score so far, this season. This bodes well for the our third-ranked interior defender, Gerald McCoy (91.2) and 11th-ranked edge defender, Robert Ayers (86.3) to put pressure on Palmer – who leads the league in turnover-worthy plays with 15, 11 of which have come under pressure (also the most). Jameis Winston should have enough weapons to avoid testing Patrick Peterson (expect him to shadow Mike Evans quite a bit) and still put up a few points but not enough to worry us too much, if only our good buddy Nick Folk were still here. Sleep well, sweet prince.
Counterpoint (EE): While I also like this pick, our second against the Cardinals’ offense in as many weeks, the volatility of Jameis Winston scares me here. While 6.8 percent of Winston’s throws have been of the “big time” variety (seventh-best in the league), 3.6 percent have been turnover worthy (17th-worst). With Mike Evans likely covered by Patrick Peterson (whose 0.43 yards per coverage snap are second-fewest among cornerbacks), it’s going to be up to DeSean Jackson (1.82 yards per route run) and Cameron Brate (2.01) to exploit the rest of the Cardinals’ defense. Given how well the Trey Burton’s and the Zach Ertz’s of the world exploited Arizona a week ago, it’s all up to Jameis to take similar advantage in this one.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)
Pick: Chiefs 27-20 (Chiefs cover)
Point (EE): In a rematch of one of the AFC Divisional Playoff Games a season ago, the Chiefs are a far stronger side than the two-point favorite and the two-point loser they were a season ago. Alex Smith is an MVP candidate, leading the league in yards per pass attempt (8.8), adjusted completion percentage (85.2%), passer rating on deep passes (142.0), and passer rating under pressure (135.7), (he’s second in passer rating when kept clean and on play action as well). Kareem Hunt is leading the league in rushing yards (by 143 yards), yards after contact and missed tackles forced. For all the talent the Steelers have, they are nowhere near as good a side as they were when they came into Arrowhead a season ago, with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and Le’Veon Bell averaging 1.0 and 1.3 fewer yards per pass and rush attempt than they were a season ago, respectively.
Counterpoint (GC): When these two met in the divisional round last season the Steelers let Le’Veon carry them to a two-point victory running the ball 25 times between the tackles, gaining 2.7 yards before contact per carry and breaking four tackles. Following this model again would make sense and could keep the scoring to a premium which would make a Chiefs victory by more than four points seem a little outlandish. Big Ben hasn’t been great (74.3) but Antonio Brown is still the top of the wide receiver food chain (89.6 – first), and without Eric Berry at safety there could be a deep ball or two yet left in the Ben to Brown connection as the Chiefs have given up 14 completions on throws 20-plus yards downfield (third-most). Don't sleep on Big Ben. Towel up.
New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-12)
Pick: Broncos 27 – 13 (Broncos cover)
Point (GC): Von Miller (88.2) vs Bobby Hart (36.6). Chris Harris Jr. (83.9), Aqib Talib (87.4), Bradley Roby (77.1) vs three guys that wouldn’t start for the Jets. A living breathing human versus Eli Apple (39.6). With all respect to “Snacks” Harrison (89.2), the only thing they have going for them is that the razor-thin Denver air may choke out their last gasps of life and put them out of their misery before suffering too much. The only issue here seems to be the Denver offense having enough success to cover the large spread. However, the once stout Giants run defense has allowed 3.2 yards after contact per attempt (second-worst) while C.J. Anderson is averaging 3.2 yards after contact per carry in his own right (third) making for what should be a decisive advantage in Denver’s favor. The Giants pass-rush has been equally as decrepit, with the third-lowest pressure rate in the NFL which means Trevor Siemian should enjoy a mostly clean pocket from which he has a passer rating of 109.7 (eighth). Some hair-do, McAdoo sure don’t.
Counterpoint (EE): I drew the short straw here. The number (-12) is big, so that’s a thing. In Denver’s last game (the last time they were our lock), they scored only 16 points against a bad Raiders defense, and only six points after finishing the first quarter up 10-0. If Siemian doesn’t rebound from two weeks where he was in the bottom third in terms of PFF grades (averaging only 6.6 yards per pass attempt), there’s a chance that the Broncos offense doesn’t generate enough points to cover the two-ish touchdown spread. That said, listen to George.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.