After a 2-3-Week 13 of picking games, we’re back for Week 14. After last week, we’re 37-25-3 (59.7 percent) on the season. We’re 78-63-4 (55.3 percent) against the spread overall through 13 weeks, and on over/unders we’re 98-70-3 (58.3 percent). In Week 12, on said picks we were 5-5 and 7-5, respectively, with our fourth-consecutive lock of the week (New Orleans at -4.5) getting us to the window.
Each week provides an exciting slate of games, along with the knowledge generated from an additional week’s worth of PFF data. After a week off, we’re going to back the Patriots as road favorites in Miami. We’re on the side of three NFC West teams (including Jimmy Garappolo and the 49ers!), as well as on a Washington/Los Angeles Chargers under, a side we’ve been on multiple times this season.
Each of the five feature picks below comes with a point/counterpoint analysis, including a deeper dive into our “Lock of the Week” that is heard on the PFF Preview Podcast that comes out each Friday morning. The Lock of the Week is 10-3 so far (76.9 percent). For the remainder of our spread and over/under picks, check out PFF Elite and the PFF Elite Facebook Group. For our thoughts on Thursday Night Football’s spread and over/under, follow us at @PFF_George and @PFF_EricEager on Twitter each week. The Thursday night graphics have been 11-2 (84.6 percent) so far this season, after picking Atlanta (-2.5) and UNDER 51.5 last night.
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-3)
Pick: Texans 22 – 21 (49ers cover)
Point (George Chahrouri): December is really a hit or miss month. First, it saves the world from a stable Nazareth, then it takes John Lennon away to shine on up above us. And now, month No. 12 has decided to get back on the positive side. Just like the one that came before him, Jimmy G, was conceived by a divine spirit residing under a perpetual star in the East. The first start was exactly what you’d expect from the second-coming, he didn’t have a negatively-graded play under pressure while going 5-for-8 and snagging 7.8 yards per pass average and even managed to overcome some bad luck when a pass bounced off Louis Murphy and got intercepted in the first quarter. All told, Garoppolo finished with an 86.1 passing grade, good for third-highest of the week – let the humility wash over you. Garoppolo torched the middle of the field against the Bears, going 16-of-22 at a 9.3 yard per pass clip and the Texans defense has allowed a 120.8 passer rating on throws between the numbers this year (highest in the NFL). The other key matchup that favors a 49ers rejuvenation is DeForest Buckner (88.2 grade – 12th) against the interior of the Texans’ “offensive” line that doesn’t have a player grading above 45.0. Let the Jimmy G Magical Mystery Tour commence.
Counterpoint (Eric Eager): While I think picking the better of two quarterbacks (especially when he is getting points) is a sound strategy, are we sure that Jimmy Garappolo and the 49ers warrant a top-5 pick this week? The Niners have played an easier-than-average schedule, and their defense (by our metrics) has been the worst unit in the league through the season’s first 13 weeks. Against a similarly poor defense last week, Texans quarterback Tom Savage was able to go 14-of-19 for 188 yards (104.7) rating when blitzed. DeAndre Hopkins has been fantastic no matter who has thrown him the ball this season, generating 1,084 total receiving yards on 2.30 yards per route run (sixth among wide receivers). While Ahkello Witherspoon (77.9 grade) has had a decent rookie season, it will be interesting to see how Dontae Johnson (42.4) and K’Waun Williams (42.2) hold up on the back end against Hopkins and Co.
Kai Forbath (well, really, the Ka’imi Fairbairn) Memorial Extra Point: As we saw in last week’s game between the 49ers and the Bears – when two poor teams face off, the kicking game can flip outcomes substantially. In our quarterly PFF special teams rankings the 49ers have a decided edge, ranking seventh, while the Texans rank 26th.
Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
Pick: Jaguars 21-20 (Seahawks cover)
Point (EE): What’s nice about this game is that it isolates the most important variable (quarterback play) profoundly. Despite the Seahawks’ injuries defensively, both defenses in this game consist entirely of starters earning PFF player grades above 70.0, meaning that it’s really going to come down to how well each team’s offense plays in relation to its opponent. Much has been written about how poor Blake Bortles’ career has gone, so we’ll focus on Russell Wilson’s MVP-caliber campaign to this point. Wilson, despite being snake bitten by the fifth-most drops in the league, has generated the second-most touchdown passes in the league (26), while his 71 rushing attempts have given a struggling Seahawks ground game 432 yards (on 6.1 a carry) and three touchdowns. His supporting cast has improved as well, with his offensive line generating the fifth-highest pass blocking efficiency since Week 9 against stout defenses like Atlanta and Philadelphia. I’ll take this guy with the extra points, thank you.
Counterpoint (GC): Last week, the two highest passing grades belong to Joe Flacco and Blake Bortles. They call this having your cake and eating it too, or maybe not cake but some sort of 7-day old bologna sandwich (the Doug Marrone). Lightning could strike twice but a far more likely issue would be the Jacksonville defense that currently sits at the top of our opponent adjusted defensive rankings. Despite the horrific “Sacksonville” nickname, the Jaguars most important (and predictive) defensive component is their coverage; when opposing quarterbacks have a clean pocket to throw from they are managing just a 77.0 passer rating against the Jaguars – the lowest mark in the league (NFL average is 97.7). The Jags are one of only two teams (Ravens) with more interceptions than touchdowns allowed on plays where the opposing quarterback isn’t pressured. As great as Wilson has played this season, he is tied for the league lead in turnover-worthy throws (DeShone Kizer) not exactly the type of throw you want to make against Jalen Ramsey (93.8 – second). More concerning is this trend that I’m sure has Vegas buzzing. Generational leaders of men are winless as an underdog on the road against a Ramsey, with their last meeting resulting in an exodus of historic proportion at the hand of Pharaoh Ramesses II.
Washington at Los Angeles Chargers (over/under 46)
Pick: Chargers 24 -19 (the under hits)
Point (EE): While unders are tough bets, one of these teams in this game has been an under team all season, while the other is missing many of the key pieces that made it a solid offensive team earlier in the campaign. Nine of Los Angeles’ games have gone under this total so far this season, while Washington’s offense is missing Chris Thompson, Jordan Reed, Terrelle Pryor and (possibly) Trent Williams. As we saw when Buffalo visited Los Angeles, turnovers can derail unders. Luckily, in this one we have Philip Rivers (just seven interceptions all season) and Kirk Cousins (eight), both of whom create turnover-worthy throws at a rate of 3.4 percent, which is not going to cause a series of short fields and tons of points for their opponents. Couple this with a Chargers defense that ranks second in our pass coverage grades and the fact that both teams are on backup kickers, and this game has the under recipe.
Counterpoint (GC): Playing in 13 consecutive road games has to take its toll on the Chargers defense at some point. Perhaps this is the week that Bosa and Ingram don’t pressure the quarterback once every 6.2 pass-rushes (second best of any duo) and give Cousins more than 2.5 seconds on his play action passes. When given that kind of time to throw on play action, Cousins has a passer rating of 147.8, best in the NFL, when forced to get rid of it in 2.5 seconds or less that drops to the 22nd-best mark in the league. On the other side of things, Phil Rivers decided he needed a 12th son and his adoption of Keenan Allen is producing spectacular results over the last three weeks. The father-son combo has generated a league best 143.5 passer rating (minimum 30 targets) in their last three games. The combined score could easily eclipse the game attendance and perhaps even get past the 46 over/under (though less likely).
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
Pick: Rams 26 – 23 (Rams cover)
Point (GC): Both teams rank in the top six of our PFFELO rankings, meaning every decision should matter. I will spare you my rant on recent coaching decisions in the NFL (though I’m sure you can figure out what I could be referring to), and give you a nice example from last week. While Doug Pederson was punting on 4th-and-1 from midfield against the Seahawks, McVay was supporting Jared Goff and Co. as they converted on 4th-and-goal from the four to begin their demolition of a good Cardinals defense on the road. Having been on the wrong side of coaching disaster last week (not naming names), it is time to roll with the biggest thing to hit LA since Kim Kardashian’s last late night trip to McDonalds. A key to McVay’s offensive success is the Rams line that has just one player (RG Jamon Brown) grading below a 75.0. They’ve provided Goff with more confidence; last season Goff was under pressure on 62 percent of his deep drops (7-step concepts) while taking an average of 2.92 seconds to throw. This season he is seeing pressure on 43 percent of those plays while taking his sweet time (3.31 seconds). The result has been 10 big-time throws on those deeper dropbacks after just three all of last season. If they can keep the Eagles front at bay, the Rams offense will be tough to stop. On the other side of the ball, Aaron Donald (97.5 grade – first) will look to terrorize the Eagles line that surrendered a season-high 25 pressures to the Seahawks with 19 coming from the left side. Goff rises in the west.
Counterpoint (EE): The wildfires in Southern California adds uncertainty to this entire discussion, as does the answer to the question of whether Jared Goff is going to be able to handle what is sure to be a pressure-inducing Philadelphia front seven on Sunday. Brandon Graham and Derek Barnett are both top-10 ends when it comes to pass-rushing productivity, while interior defender Fletcher Cox is the third-most productive player at his position at performing such tasks. When pressured this season, Goff has produced only a 76.5 rating (as opposed to the 108.0 passer rating when kept clean). Things won’t get much easier when they hand the ball off to Todd Gurley, either, as the Eagles have surrendered only 3.5 yards per attempt on the ground (fourth). While both George and I have a ton of respect for, and faith in, Sean McVay, the questions surrounding the Rams in this game are real, and should be taken into consideration.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+11)
Pick: Patriots 28 – 16 (Patriots cover)
Point (EE): The Patriots continue to puncture a lot of the traditional gambling proverbs like “don’t pick double-digit favorites” and “don’t pick road favorites”, as they seem to defy point spread after point spread. Their much-maligned defense has not allowed more than 17 points since Week 4, and more than one touchdown their last six games. Even without Gronk this week, they still have Brand0n Cooks (first in the league in yards gained on deep passes, and yes it's Brandin), Dion Lewis (92 yards on 6.1 yards per carry last week), Rex Burkhead (78 on 6.5 a carry last week as well) and the possible return of Chris Hogan to support Tom Brady, who is the highest-graded quarterback in the league by a mile through the season’s first 13 weeks. While it might be tough for Brady to continue to have a 104.7 passer rating when pressured (about 20 points higher than anyone else), his ability to be an upper-tier quarterback every other categories will be more than enough to keep a poor Miami team a few, pliable, armlengths away.
Counterpoint (GC): Close your eyes. Picture this: a 60-foot yacht in the middle of a pristine Miami harbor, Bill and Bob, Belichek and Kraft, white linen shirts, $1,200 loafers, cigars? I remind you that there is a universe where this occurs. The only problem is that isn’t this universe or any of the hundred million nearest neighbors. Far more likely is that Gronk puts on his finest frat tank and peruses South Beach while Tom and Co. scrape out a close win. Brady has been superhuman when pressured this season, his 104.9 passer rating under pressure would be the third-best mark overall in the NFL. But, Gronk has been his most frequent target when being hit or hurried (18-of-115) resulting in a 141.4 passer rating and 10 first downs. The Dolphins pressured Brady on 41.4 percent of his dropbacks in Foxboro, and in the other two games where Tom was under pressure more than 40 percent of the time the Pats won by less than 10 (Tampa Bay Bucs and San Diego Los Angeles Chargers). As a total non-sequitur, the Gruden Grinder this week will go to Danny Amendola because he’s had a really tough life and could use a break.
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