After two losing weeks in a row, New England (our lock of the week), Minnesota and Atlanta (again) came through for us in a 3-2 week last week that brought our season record to 31-21-3 (59.6%). We’re 66-54-3 (55.0%) against the spread overall through 10 weeks, and on over/unders we’re 79-61-3 (56.4%). In Week 11, said picks we were 7-5 and 7-6, respectively.
Each week provides an exciting slate of games, along with the knowledge generated from an additional week’s worth of PFF data. This week we’re going to provide two articles, one for the Thanksgiving day games and one for the remainder of Week 12. We’re going to fade the Vikings after taking them the week before, and we’re going back to the under well, where we’ve been 0-2-1 the last three weeks. We’ve also provided a couple of analytics-driven/George’s sense-of-humor/fake proposition bets for your entertainment at the end of the article.
Each of the feature picks below comes with a point/counterpoint analysis. Friday’s article will provided a deeper dive into our “Lock of the Week” that is heard on the PFF Preview Podcast that comes out each Friday morning. The Lock of the Week is 8-3 so far (72.7%). For the remainder of our spread and over/under picks, check out PFF Elite and the PFF Elite Facebook Group. For our thoughts on Thursday Night Football’s spread and over/under, follow us at @PFF_George and @PFF_EricEager on Twitter each week. The Thursday night graphics have been 9-2 (81.8%) so far this season, after we correctly picked the Steelers against the spread and the over in last Thursday night’s game.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+3)
Pick: Vikings 23-21 (Lions cover)
Point (George Chahrouri): If you had one shot, one opportunity to seize everything you ever wanted, to take the better QB as a home underdog in the early Thanksgiving slot would you capture it, or jut let it slip? Cold Case Keenum is getting a lot of love these past few weeks, but, last I checked he can neither walk on water nor is he Jesus, in fact he is our 18th ranked QB while Matthew Stafford sits in 14th. Stafford has made plenty of plays of late, leading the league with 12 “big time throws” since Week 8, while Keenum is tied with the great Brett Hundley and six others at 19th with four such throws. The Lions have Darius Slay (88.9 – eighth) on the outside and Quandre Diggs (80.7 – T-29th) to make life hard for the Vikings two stud wideouts who are also getting a ton of pub (#wellactually). As with the QB battle, the media acts like they forgot about the best WR in this game, Golden Tate (86.5 – T-fifth) who has been the most elusive WR in the NFL since becoming a Lion, he’s continued that this season with 17 missed tackles forced (first by five), respect all around to you, Golden. Stafford, Tate, and Eminem snap the Vikings back to reality.
Counterpoint (Eric Eager): I think the idea of fading Minnesota and Keenum at the top of the market to be a sound one. However, the Vikings have lost three straight to Detroit, have the division title basically on the line, and have Teddy Bridgewater as their ace in the hole. If Detroit (and their 21st-rated defense by our metrics) is able to shut down the Vikings offense early in this game, they’ll likely have to continue that surge against a bullpen quarterback that produced passing grades of 85.9 and 82.3 in his last two appearances (both wins) against them.
New York Giants at Washington (over/under 44.5)
Pick: Washington 24 – 17 (the under hits)
Point (EE): While our record has been pretty good this year overall on totals (56.4%), we’ve struggled on the ones we’ve actually put in our articles (9-10-2). That said, we’re going to stick with the process here and go with a game with one team that is pretty poor offensively (the Giants are 26th in our rating system) and one team that just lost its best offensive player for the season with a broken leg (Chris Thompson). Both defenses have shown the ability to play strong against weaker offenses, and both quarterbacks have been middle-of-the-pack in avoiding turnovers (which can offer short fields and points, as we saw in last week’s Buffalo/Los Angeles game). To top it off, the Giants kicker, Aldrick Rosas, has struggled making extra points and field goals, points that should add up throughout the game.
Counterpoint (GC): There’s a decent chance they just call this game at the half and let the players go enjoy some Turkey. If that happens the under is probably in good shape. Should this one somehow remain competitive there are a couple reasons to worry. Kirk Cousins (83.5 – 10th) has overcome basically his entire offense getting hurt and still put up points, in large part because of his dominance with play action – his 136.3 rating off of play action ranks first in the NFL. Cousins is also gaining confidence in his deep ball now that Josh Doctson has taken over on the outside; since Week 7, Cousins has a 127.1 passer rating on throws 20-plus yards downfield. After spending the whole day awkwardly avoiding politics with a bunch of relatives that have you wondering if you were adopted, it would only seem fitting for the Washington Turkey-skins to hang 40 and send you further into the pit of misery.
PFF Special Thanksgiving Prop Bets
Percentage of Kickoffs Returned Out of the End Zone that Make It Past the 25-Yard Line (over/under the league average of 24.2 percent)
Under (EE): As anyone who follows me on Twitter (@PFF_EricEager) knows, I loathe the continuous (although decreasing) prevalence of kick returners that YOLO their way to the 17-yard line on end-zone kickoffs because they think they’re the modern-day Gale Sayers. Of the 227 kickoffs that have been returned from a yard or more deep this season, only 55 (24.2 percent) have resulted in a starting field position of the 25-yard line (which could be achieved by a simply taking a knee). Minnesota (13) is tied for the second-most returns from the end zone this season (they’ve been successful on five of them), while Detroit (0-4), Los Angeles (0-7), Dallas (1-6), New York (0-5) and Washington (1-3) have had little-to-no success when throwing caution to the wind. Look for that to continue Thursday.
Over (GC): Do you hate winning? Do you have a money tree? Are you looking to inflict pain on yourself? All would be great reason to take the over.
Turnover-Worthy Throws by Phil Rivers and Eli Manning (-6) vs Times Ezekiel Elliott Jumps Into Salvation Army Bowl
Just take Phil and Eli, sit back, relax, ignore your cousin telling you about his eight fantasy teams and let the good times roll. Happy Thanksgiving you filthy animals, see you later this week.
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