Week 6 of the NFL season has officially closed, and with it, our weekly PFFELO rankings, looking ahead to Week 7. Like all ELO systems, PFFELO is an iterative system that updates each team’s rating after each game based on two things: how well they played against their opponent and how well they were expected to play against their opponent. The PFFELO rating system measures the former using our unique offensive, defensive and special teams grades, while the latter is determined by the PFFELO ratings leading up to the game and where the game is played.
For example, a heavy favorite playing at home is expected to outplay the visitor, so a victory would result in only a small rise in their PFFELO rating and a similarly-small decrease in the defeated team’s, but if an upset were to happen, the visiting team would see their PFFELO rating rise substantially, and the home team’s see a similarly-sized drop.
Sometimes in football the best team does not win, and PFFELO accounts for these oddities by using our grades. Hence there will be teams rated higher or lower in this system than their win-loss record would suggest.
1. 
LAST WEEK: 2
In a league where very little is certain, someone has to be No. 1. Tom Brady (92.0 overall grade) who is again pacing the most important position in the game through six weeks, is very much the reason for this ranking. The Patriots held their second-straight opponent to under 20 points last Sunday and if they can continue to at least slow teams, their offense (the highest-graded in football) can carry them through a potentially weak schedule. After facing the Falcons on Sunday night, the Patriots have but maybe one offense (the Steelers on December 17) capable of keeping up with them the rest of the way.
2.
LAST WEEK: 1
After carrying the top spot in this rankings for a few weeks, the Chiefs fall due to being thoroughly dominated (again) at home by Pittsburgh. They surrendered 138 yards after contact against the Steelers on 37 attempts. It’s a wonder as to how the combination of an aging Derrick Johnson (39.2 run defense grade), a somewhat-out-of-position Daniel Sorenson (25.3) and newcomers Kevin Pierre-Louis (48.9) and Reggie Ragland (38.1) will be able to slow opponents who take a similar approach to moving the ball and keeping it out of Kareem Hunt’s (92.0) hands) against them. Marshawn Lynch and the Raiders are their next test.
3.
LAST WEEK: 6
One of the most impressive teams of the weekend played last Thursday in Charlotte. With Carson Wentz improving on his downfield passes (sixth with a 108.1 passer rating on such throws), the Eagles have been able to move the ball both through the air and on the ground. Couple that with the return of Fletcher Cox (six pressures Thursday) to go along with Brandon Graham (10), and the Eagles have the makings of a team that might be atop this list sooner rather than later.
4.
LAST WEEK: 3
The Falcons are somehow still our second-highest graded team through six weeks and, even after losing to the Bills and Dolphins, are still in a position to compete for their second-straight division title at 3-2 (and 3-0 in conference play). They’ll need two of their big-time contributors from 2016 to play better, though. Edge defender Vic Beasley had zero pressures in 20 pass-rushing snaps against Miami on Sunday, which undid solid efforts from Keanu Neal (77.1), Grady Jarrett (87.3), Deion Jones (85.1) and Dontari Poe (80.0). If he and Matt Ryan (80.4), who threw last week’s game-clinching interception, can’t play like they did throughout 2016 against the Patriots Sunday night, look for them to hit the 0.500 mark and fall in these rankings.
5.
LAST WEEK: 8
Everyone gave us grief for having Pittsburgh too high after they lost to Jacksonville. And then they go on the road and handle the Chiefs in a game whose score was far closer on the scoreboard than the composition of PFF grades would suggest. Le’Veon Bell (550 yards in six games – 347 after contact) and Antonio Brown (700 receiving yards) have carried a struggling offense, while their defense is third in yards per play allowed (4.6). Within a relatively weak division this season, look for the Steelers to find their stride in the coming weeks.
6.
LAST WEEK: 4
The Panthers are still undefeated on the road, and that should continue this week in Chicago against the Bears. That said, the long-term success of this team depends on Cam Newton, and he’s simply been too inconsistent through six weeks for this team to be a contender, with his two lowest-graded games coming in their losses. It doesn’t help matters that he’s been their most-efficient rusher (4.0 yards per carry), with Jonathan Stewart turning his 85 carries into just 247 yards (208 after contact), while rookie Christian McCaffrey turned his 38 into just 104 (69). More efficiency on the ground will likely lead to more-favorable opportunities for Newton and more success for Carolina moving forward.
7.
LAST WEEK: 9
The Seahawks go to New York after their bye week with many of the issues that plagued them their first five weeks. Luke Joeckel (47.9) doesn’t appear set to play on Sunday after knee surgery, and the rest of the offensive line (save Justin Britt) consists of players with a PFF player grade below 50.0. With Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie back for the Giants, it might be difficult for Russell Wilson to continue his magic ability to maintain a passer rating of 95.1 when holding the ball more than 2.5 seconds and 78.9 when under pressure. Like in Los Angeles two weeks ago, it will likely come down to whether their defense continues to play well.
8.
LAST WEEK: 5
The rating system will take a few weeks to respond to what is likely a season-ending injury to star quarterback Aaron Rodgers (84.9). Without Rodgers, the Packers defense (the 26th-highest graded in the league) was exposed against a Vikings offense sans their best quarterback, running back and wide receiver. It’s times like these where superstars like Mike Daniels (10.9 run stop percentage, 8.1 pass-rush productivity, both top 15 in his position group) have to step up even further if the Packers are going to have any chance to sneak into the playoffs in a wide-open NFC North.
9.
LAST WEEK: 11
After a late scare at home against a plucky 49ers bunch, Washington remains in our top 10 due to the foibles of many in front of them. Their MVP to this point has to be do-it-all running back Chris Thompson, who’s leading qualifying running backs with an absurd 3.54 yards per route run out of the backfield, while adding another 4.9 yards per carry on 36 attempts running the ball. With their guys on the outside struggling to replace Pierre Garcon and Desean Jackson, Thompson’s value cannot be overstated through six weeks.
10.
LAST WEEK: 12
As with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, this rating system will likely take time to adjust to the eventual loss of Ezekiel Elliot for six weeks due to a suspension (although it appears Zeke will be able to play this week). That being said, there’s enough mediocrity in the league to keep Dallas afloat through this time if they improve in other areas, especially given how overrated the running game is in terms of value in the NFL. Unfortunately, it has been poor play by the Cowboys’ defense (27th in terms of grading in the league) and regression from Dak Prescott (13th in PFF player grades at the quarterback position) that have kept Dallas from meeting their expectations so far this season, and moments of elevated play have been scarce. If those don’t key components improve, they could fall behind Philadelphia (4-1) and Washington (3-2) quickly.
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