• BET Aaron Jones u3.5 receptions (+115 DraftKings): PFF Greenline's biggest edge in this matchup (18.8%).
• BET Buccaneers -1 (-110): PFF Greenline likes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to come out victorious, showing 2.2% value on the -1 point spread and a 1.6% edge on the moneyline.
• New users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free year’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.
Estimated reading time: 3 min
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers -1
Total: 42
Team Totals: Packers (20.5), Buccaneers (21.5).
* Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Two NFC powerhouses go into battle Sunday afternoon as Aaron Rodgers‘ Packers visit Tom Brady‘s Buccaneers.
Both teams are coming off a Week 2 win over a division opponent and look to gain an early top spot in the conference.
Packers Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense
• Déjà vu: The Packers are off to a familiar start. After opening up last season with an embarrassing 38-3 loss to the New Orleans Saints, only to come back in Week 2 to beat up on a weaker divisional foe, Green Bay began this season with a double-digit loss, then came back last week on Sunday Night Football to defeat the Chicago Bears, 27-10.
• Keep the run game going: Early on, it looks like the Packers offense will rely heavily on the run game, led by RB Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Through the first two weeks, the Packers rank 1st in rushing — with a PFF grade of 85.8 — and 4th in Rush DVOA per Football Outsiders. The Packers need to continue running the ball to succeed against Tampa Bay. This will help the Packers control the pace of play and keep the ball out of Tom Brady's hands.
• Bucs No. 1 Scoring Defense: Tampa Bay is the NFL's stingiest scoring defense through two weeks (6.5 points per game) and ranks first overall per FO and third via PFF (75.4 grade) Not only do the Buccaneers have the top-ranked defense, they are also outstanding against the pass, posting a PFF coverage grade of 85.4, also leading the league.
• Vulnerable vs. run: If there is a weak link to the Tampa Bay defense, it's stopping the run. The Bucs are allowing 4.6 rushing yards per attempt, ranked 19th in the NFL. But, this will be no cakewalk for Jones, as the Bucs have only let up 146 total rushing yards through two weeks (11th).
• BET Aaron Jones u3.5 receptions (+115 DraftKings): PFF Greenline's biggest edge in this matchup (18.8%).
Buccaneers Offense vs. Packers Defense
• Protect Brady: Tampa Bay's offensive line is already taking some hits early this season. It must step up and protect QB Tom Brady against a Packers defense that leads the league in pressure rate (44%). Good news for the Bucs: Despite a high-pressure rate, the Packers have only come away with four sacks.
• Lean on Lenny: Like the Packers with Jones, Brady will have to count on Leonard Fournette heavily in this matchup. The Buccaneers look to be depleted at receiver again, as Mike Evans is suspended and Chris Godwin is out with a hamstring injury. That leaves Julio Jones (questionable), Russell Gage, Scotty Miller, and newly acquired Cole Beasley.
• Greener pastures: Despite only averaging 2.7 yards per carry last week, Fournette was still the main focal part of the offense and will have a better matchup against the Packers, who are dead-last defending against the run and have allowed 6.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs (30th).
Packers Trends
• Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 games.
• Green Bay is 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played in Tampa Bay.
Buccaneers Trends
• Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS over the past 5 games.
• Buccaneers are 11-2 SU in their past 13 home games.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games against Green Bay.
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