One bet we like on every AFC South team: Colts to miss playoffs?

• Best Bet: Titans QB Ryan Tannehill Under 12.5 interceptions, -115 on BetMGM 

• Best Bet: Colts to miss playoffs, +150 on DraftKings

• Use PFF player grades to help find the best player prop bets

Despite the 2022 offseason nearly being over, with many of the premiere betting opportunities (win totals, outrights) already pounded into place, the books can’t get everything right. 

In this article I go through one bet I like for each AFC South team.  Enjoy!

Indianapolis Colts (-125 to win the division on BetMGM, season win total of 10)

Bet to Make: +150 to miss playoffs on DraftKings

Hard to find a bet on the Colts, but we make this one basically breakeven (40%). While the Colts are the rightful favorite to win this division for the first time since 2014, there are leaks. How will the defense do without Matt Eberflus? How will Matt Ryan hold up physically over the course of the year?What happens if Tennessee defies odds again? Jacksonville?

Tennessee Titans (+170, 9)

Bet to Make: Ryan Tannehill under 12.5 interceptions (-115) on betmgm

Tannehill has not missed a start since he took over in the seventh game of 2019 for Marcus Mariota, but with a poor offensive line specifically, and a poor offense in general, not to mention the presence of third-round rookie Malik Willis, the veteran could very well play fewer than 17 games, making this bet more likely than it is on first blush.  Additionally, after his 22 turnover-worthy plays in 2020 turned into only seven interceptions, his 22 turnover-worthy plays in 2021 turned into 14 interceptions. Regression is on the way.  

Jacksonville Jaguars (+750, 6.5)

Bet to Make: Jaguars +450 to make the playoffs on DraftKings

We make this more like +400, and there are other ways to bet this (i.e. the division title bet, which is currently down on DraftKings).  With Doug Pederson in the fold, and some positivity circling around last year's No. 1 overall pick, Trevor Lawrence, the tail of the distribution for Jacksonville is fatter than for some other teams.  Furthermore, the Jaguars are over the 2023 salary cap, meaning they are trying this year, which is always part of the handicap when a team is lined this lowly to start a season.

Houston Texans (+2500, 4.5)

Bet to Make: Texans over 4.5 wins +100 on DraftKings

We make this closer to about six wins, and like with the Jaguars above, the Texans are trying this year (in their own way, at least). This is not a team with the talent to win anything fat tail (division, playoffs, etc.), but as they showed last year, the division is weak enough for the Texans to knock out a couple of wins — with additional games against Chicago, the New York Giants, the Commanders, and the Browns potentially without Deshaun Watson.  Not a lot of great bets on this team, but this one is OK.