Why your NFL team won, lost in Week 16

2YYP921 Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young celebrates after a touchdown by wide receiver David Moore during the second half of an NFL football game against the Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, Dec. 22, 2024, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)

• An excellent game for Bryce Young: The Panthers quarterback was instrumental against the Cardinals, and made three big-time throws in his team's overtime win.

• The Dolphins‘ quick passing game is key: Tua Tagovailoa stuck to his guns, getting the ball out quickly in a clean pocket to set the Dolphins on their way.

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!

Estimated Reading Time: 13 minutes


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Los Angeles Chargers 34, Denver Broncos 27

Why the Chargers won: Justin Herbert delivered for the Chargers just when they needed him to. He was under pressure on 20 of his 37 dropbacks, and aside from throwing a first-half interception, he handled that pressure incredibly. Herbert completed 81.3% of his pass attempts when pressured for 171 yards, a touchdown and an interception, earning a 78.0 PFF overall grade and adding two big-time throws. His second-half performance led the way for an impressive Chargers comeback.

Why the Broncos lost: After a fast start, the Broncos fell away in the second half, scoring just six points. The conservatism in the passing game, largely an unwillingness to throw the ball downfield, congested the Broncos' offense, and the lack of a deep ball made gaining yards on chunk plays more difficult. Bo Nix attempted 40 passes in the loss, and only 15% of those throws went more than 10 air yards. 

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Kansas City Chiefs 27, Houston Texans 19

Why the Chiefs won: Kansas City hasn’t been great in pass protection in 2024, and while Patrick Mahomes was pressured on 37% of his dropbacks on Saturday, he was dialed in when kept clean. Mahomes completed 19 of his 28 pass attempts from a clean pocket for 185 yards and a touchdown, earning a 90.3 PFF overall grade. His average time to throw was just 2 seconds, as the Chiefs were intent on getting the ball out fast, which meant Mahomes was allowed to be at his best and pick away at the defense.

Why the Texans lost: C.J. Stroud earned an 83.9 PFF overall grade against the Chiefs, but his performance worsened when the Chiefs' relentless pass rush got home. The Chiefs pressured Stroud 25 times in total, and on 48.8% of his dropbacks. Stroud completed just 7 of his 19 pass attempts when pressured for 112 yards, a touchdown, and an interception, and he was sacked twice. The threat of constant pressure and the lack of a consistent passing game in those moments slowed the Texans.

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Baltimore Ravens 34, Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Why the Ravens won: Lamar Jackson was excellent again, but Derrick Henry spearheaded the Ravens' offense for the majority of the game and took over against a strong Steelers defense. Henry carried the ball 24 times for 162 yards, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt and earning a 71.9 PFF rushing grade. The Steelers' defense faced a nightmare trying to bring Henry down as the game went on, and the Ravens running back forced five missed tackles in the game and broke off seven explosive runs. An inevitable performance from an all-time great.

Why the Steelers lost: Russell Wilson was pressured on 36.8% of his dropbacks, and the difference between the moments where he was kept clean and was pressured was a major factor in the game. Wilson completed 81.8% of his pass attempts for 195 yards and two touchdowns when kept clean, earning a 92.7 PFF passing grade. However, when pressured, Wilson’s grade dropped to 37.1, as he completed four of his 11 attempts for 22 yards and an interception. And the interception was returned for a pick-six. His yards per attempt dropped from 8.9 to 2.0, as well.

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Cincinnati Bengals 24, Cleveland Browns 6

Why the Bengals won: Joe Burrow has been playing the best football of his career in 2024 and was in form against the Browns once more. Cleveland got after Burrow, and he was kept clean on just 58.3% of his dropbacks, but he was excellent when his offensive line mitigated pressure. Burrow earned an 85.4 PFF overall grade, completing 85.7% of his passes for 206 yards and a touchdown while adding two big-time throws and averaging 9.8 yards per attempt.

Why the Browns lost: Dorian Thompson-Robinson‘s first start of 2024 was rough, and the Browns' propensity for turning the ball over cost them. Cleveland committed three turnovers, with Thompson-Robinson throwing two interceptions and the team losing one of two fumbles. The offense struggled to move the ball all day, but turnovers proved costly for the Browns.

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Atlanta Falcons 34, New York Giants 7

Why the Falcons won: The offense was efficient in Michael Penix Jr.’s first start for the Falcons, and they were able to lean on the excellent rushing prowess of Bijan Robinson. Robinson carried the load for the offense, touting the rock 22 times for 94 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 4.3 yards per carry and earning a 66.5 PFF rushing grade. He also forced three missed tackles and broke off three rushes of 10-plus yards. Robinson was the tone-setter.

Why the Giants lost: If your quarterback throws two pick-sixes, chances are you’re probably not going to win the game. The Giants turned the ball over three times against the Falcons, with Drew Lock throwing two pick-sixes and losing a fumble. Lock earned a 38.6 PFF overall grade in the loss, completing just 56.4% of his pass attempts, and his three turnovers set the Falcons on their way.

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Carolina Panthers 36, Arizona Cardinals 30

Why the Panthers won: Bryce Young has found his feet in the NFL since his return to the starting lineup, and he was excellent in a protected pocket against the Cardinals. Young was kept clean on 63.6% of his dropbacks and completed 73.7% of his pass attempts for 113 yards and a touchdown while earning a 94.5 PFF overall grade and being credited with three big-time throws. Young is reminding everyone why he was the No. 1 pick in 2023.

Why the Cardinals lost: The Panthers' rushing attack carved up the Cardinals, who allowed 243 yards and three touchdowns on 6.8 yards per carry. It was a rough performance against the run for Arizona, which surrendered six rushes of 10 yards or more and missed six tackles in run defense. The Cardinals' loss eliminated them from playoff contention, and it was a tough way to go out.

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Detroit Lions 34, Chicago Bears 17

Why the Lions won: The Lions were excellent in utilizing play action against the Bears, as the consistent threat of Jahmyr Gibbs in the running game sucked the linebackers closer to the line of scrimmage, opening up deeper throwing lines. Jared Goff completed 14 of his 16 play-action passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns, earning a 93.2 PFF overall grade. Almost half of Goff’s pass attempts were off play action, and his yards per attempt figure in those scenarios was 10 yards more than in regular dropback scenarios.

Why the Bears lost: Outside of an encouraging performance from Caleb Williams, the Bears' offense was nowhere to be seen. The rushing game was a non-factor, averaging 3.1 yards per attempt, with Williams leading the team with 28 yards on the ground. D’Andre Swift handled the bulk of the carries, with 20 yards on nine carries for just 2.2 yards per attempt. 

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Los Angeles Rams 19, New York Jets 9

Why the Rams won: Kyren Williams was a consistent source of yards for the Rams as they took ahold of the NFC West. Williams carried the ball 23 times for 122 yards and a touchdown, earning an 84.1 PFF overall grade and averaging 5.3 yards per attempt. The Rams attempted only 19 passes in the game, so Williams was the load-bearer in a key win.

Why the Jets lost: The Jets' defense has taken a step back since Robert Saleh was fired, and the pass rush figured to be a non-factor against the Rams. New York notched just five pressures in the game, pressuring Matthew Stafford on 21.1% of his dropbacks and failing to register a single sack.

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Indianapolis Colts 38, Tennessee Titans 30

Why the Colts won: The Colts attempted only 11 passes but generated 335 yards of offense on the ground. Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson combined for 288 of those yards and added four rushing touchdowns. Indianapolis' offensive line did the dirty work up front, and Taylor forced six missed tackles and averaged 7.5 yards per attempt, breaking off two huge touchdown runs.

Why the Titans lost: Just as the Colts won the game on the ground, that’s where the Titans lost it. They allowed a whopping 7.4 yards per play and 6.7 yards per attempt on the ground. The defense missed seven tackles against the run and surrendered two huge touchdown runs and consistent 6-yard gains.

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Washington Commanders 36, Philadelphia Eagles 33

Why the Commanders won: The Commanders turned the ball over five times but still snuck away with a big win over the Eagles. That was down to rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels tossing five touchdown passes. Daniels earned a 74.8 PFF overall grade after throwing for 258 yards and rushing for 81 yards. He was at his best after the turnovers, and the Commanders leaned on him to create yards in the passing and rushing game.

Why the Eagles lost: Kenny Pickett stepped in for Jalen Hurts after the latter suffered a concussion, and Pickett struggled when pressured by the Commanders' pass rush. He was pressured on 43.3% of his dropbacks, completing just 33.3% of his pass attempts for 26 yards, averaging 2.9 yards per attempt and earning a 60.4 PFF overall grade. He was also sacked three times.

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Minnesota Vikings 27, Seattle Seahawks 24

Why the Vikings won: The Vikings have a weapon unlike any other in the league. Justin Jefferson is the best wide receiver in the NFL and was the key to Minnesota's win. He caught 10 of his 12 targets for 144 yards and two touchdowns, earning an 83.3 PFF overall grade and averaging 14.4 yards per reception. Jefferson’s second touchdown of the game was the big moment, too, as it gave the Vikings the lead in the final few minutes.

Why the Seahawks lost: The Seahawks' offensive line allowed just one sack, but the constant pressure on Geno Smith was a fault in their department. The offensive line let up 22 pressures and four quarterback hits, and Smith was pressured on 47.8% of his dropbacks. The Seahawks quarterback threw two interceptions when pressured. 

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Buffalo Bills 24, New England Patriots 21

Why the Bills won: The Bills avoided a scare against the Patriots, despite a less-than-perfect passing performance from Josh Allen, thanks to the power of their running game. James Cook led the way, carrying the ball 11 times for 100 yards and a touchdown. He averaged 9.1 yards per attempt, and Allen and Ty Johnson each carried the ball six times for 30 yards. As a team, the Bills forced 11 missed tackles against the run.

Why the Patriots lost: The Bills' defense dialed up the blitz against Drake Maye, forcing the rookie quarterback to struggle against five or more rushers while muddying the looks in coverage. Maye was blitzed on 41.9% of his dropbacks, completing eight of his 17 pass attempts for 98 yards, a touchdown and an interception. His yards per attempt when blitzed was 5.8 yards per attempt, while it was a healthy and aggressive 8.6 yards per attempt when not blitzed.

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Las Vegas Raiders 19, Jacksonville Jaguars 14

Why the Raiders won: The Raiders have a star in Brock Bowers. The rookie tight end has been the fulcrum of their lacking offense in 2024, and he was the difference-maker against the Jaguars as the Raiders halted a 10-game losing streak. Bowers caught 11-of-13 targets for 99 yards, and six of those catches went for first downs. Bowers keeps finding ways to get open and generate yards for a struggling offense.

Why the Jaguars lost: As the cliche goes, if you lose the turnover battle, you’ll probably lose the game. That’s exactly what happened to the Jaguars. Tank Bigsby and Brenton Strange both lost fumbles at key moments during the game. Strange’s came in the final few moments of the first half while the Jaguars were driving into field-goal range, while Bigsby’s also came while the Jaguars were searching for points in their opponent's half. Mistakes are costly, and Jacksonville had two, compared to the Raiders who played a turnover-free game.

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Miami Dolphins 29, San Francisco 49ers 17

Why the Dolphins won: Tua Tagovailoa delivered an excellent and efficient game from the pocket, doing his best work when the Dolphins' offensive line kept him clean. The Dolphins quarterback completed 21 of his 29 pass attempts for 213 yards and a touchdown in a clean pocket, earning an 80.2 PFF overall grade and averaging 7.3 yards per attempt. Tagovailoa did what works best for him, too, getting the ball out at an average of 2.09 seconds when kept clean. That paved the way for success in the passing game.

Why the 49ers lost: With Tagovailoa getting the ball out so fast, an average of 2.16 seconds per throw, the 49ers' defensive linemen had very few opportunities to pin their ears back and rush the passer. On 36 dropbacks, the 49ers pressured Tagovailoa at a low 13.9% rate and were rendered a non-factor for most of the game.

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Dallas Cowboys 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

Why the Cowboys won: The Cowboys' offensive line built a wall in front of Cooper Rush and did well to protect the Cowboys’ backup quarterback for most of the game. The offensive line allowed just two sacks and six pressures in the game, with Rush being pressured on 19.4% of his dropbacks. Four of the Cowboys' starting linemen earned PFF pass-blocking grades of 70.0 or higher, too, with Tyler Smith earning an 83.5 mark and allowing zero pressures.

Why the Buccaneers lost: The Buccaneers struggled to defend the middle of the field against the Cowboys, with Cooper Rush completing 21 of his 24 pass attempts between the numbers for 192 yards. The majority of Rush’s pass attempts were behind the line of scrimmage or between 1-10 yards, but the Buccaneers still struggled to stop the short passing game and felt the ramifications. 

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Green Bay Packers 34, New Orleans Saints 0

Why the Packers won: The Packers trounced the Saints on Monday night, and they leaned on the power of the running game to get the job done. Josh Jacobs and the offense carried the ball 39 times for 188 yards and three touchdowns, with Jacobs leading the charge with 69 yards and a score. The Packers had contributors all over, with Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks also punching in touchdowns.

Why the Saints lost: A rookie quarterback being pressured on more than half of his dropbacks is a recipe for disaster, and that's exactly what happened to Spencer Rattler versus the Packers. Rattler was pressured on 52.6% of his dropbacks and completed seven of his 14 pass attempts on those plays for 82 yards, earning a 55.1 PFF passing grade. His passing grade versus pressure was better than when kept clean, but that's no way to live. Rattler was also sacked three times.

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