NFL Week 9 Power Rankings: Time to panic in Dallas?

• Are the Lions the best team in the NFL?: The Lions are 6-1 and look unstoppable, but how high do they rank?

• The Jets we know: The Jets are 2-6 and looking down the barrel of another failed season.

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer, and more. Sign up now!

Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes

The power rankings below provide clear tiers on the market assessment of each NFL team, offering a comprehensive view of team standings and future prospects. All of the below information and more can be found in PFF’s power rankings tool, which is available with a PFF+ subscription.

Key

Strength of Schedule: The relative difficulty of each team's schedule based on point spread team ratings of opponents — 1 is hardest, 32 is easiest.

Projections: Probabilities based on 10,000 season simulations, given team point spread ratings, strength of schedule and team records.

JUMP TO A TEAM:

ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC| LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

Kansas City Chiefs

Strength of schedule to date: 10
Strength of schedule remaining: 16
Projected win total: 14.3
% chance of making the playoffs: 99.7
% chance of winning the division: 93.3
% chance of winning the conference: 40.2
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 22.5

Sunday offered victory for the Chiefs again, as they’re off to their best start to a season in the Patrick Mahomes era. The irony, of course, is that they’re not even playing their best football, but they’re 7-0. The defense is eighth in EPA per play allowed (-0.084).

2. San Francisco 49ers

Strength of schedule to date: 23
Strength of schedule remaining: 8
Projected win total: 9.7
% chance of making the playoffs: 62.1
% chance of winning the division: 51.5
% chance of winning the conference: 13.2
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 7.3

The 49ers held out against a fourth-quarter comeback from the Dallas Cowboys to even up their record to 4-4. They’ll likely get Christian McCaffrey back after the bye, and that’ll be a huge boost to an offense that is already sixth in EPA per play (0.068).

3. Baltimore Ravens

Strength of schedule to date: 6
Strength of schedule remaining: 7
Projected win total: 10.8
% chance of making the playoffs: 86.7
% chance of winning the division: 49.8
% chance of winning the conference: 13.1
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 6.7

The Ravens slipped up on the road against a Browns team looking to turn over a new leaf. Baltimore had opportunities to win, but the loss dropped the group to 5-3 and knocked the Ravens out of joint-first place in the AFC North. They’re still second in EPA per play on offense, though (0.190).

4. Detroit Lions

Strength of schedule to date: 29
Strength of schedule remaining: 4
Projected win total: 12.0
% chance of making the playoffs: 90.7
% chance of winning the division: 55.0
% chance of winning the conference: 22.9
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 12.3

The Lions are 6-1 and might just be the best team in the NFL. They’ve now scored more than 30 points in four straight games and have a 12% chance of winning the Super Bowl — the second-highest in the NFL. They’re top 10 in EPA per play on both sides of the ball, and frankly, look unstoppable.

**Subscribe to PFF+** to unlock the world's most advanced football database!

5. Buffalo Bills

Strength of schedule to date: 24
Strength of schedule remaining: 12
Projected win total: 11.6
% chance of making the playoffs: 96.6
% chance of winning the division: 94.1
% chance of winning the conference: 15.3
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 7.5

The Bills cruised to victory on the road against the Seahawks and are now 6-2 after winning three straight games. They’ve got a big lead in the AFC East and possess a 93% chance of winning the division; the next step is doing business in the postseason. Both units are top-10 in EPA per play, while the offense is now third (0.136).

6. Philadelphia Eagles

Strength of schedule to date: 25
Strength of schedule remaining: 27
Projected win total: 11.1
% chance of making the playoffs: 79.3
% chance of winning the division: 46.7
% chance of winning the conference: 14.0
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 6.7

The Eagles put on an offensive clinic against the Bengals with Jalen Hurts scoring four total touchdowns. They’re now 3-0 since the Week 5 bye, and have an average margin of victory of 16.3 points in that time. Things are looking up in the City of Brotherly Love, and the Eagles offense is seventh in EPA per play (0.066).

7. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have won back-to-back games with Russell Wilson under center after defeating the Giants on Monday night. They’re now 6-2 and sit alone atop the AFC North. They’ve also got the third-toughest remaining schedule, starting with a trip to the Commanders after their Week 9 bye. The vaunted defense is sixth in EPA per play allowed (-0.102).

8. Green Bay Packers

Strength of schedule to date: 26
Strength of schedule remaining: 6
Projected win total: 11.0
% chance of making the playoffs: 73.1
% chance of winning the division: 23.2
% chance of winning the conference: 10.3
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 4.9

The Packers have won tough in the last two games, with Brandon McManus scoring game-winning field goals against the Cardinals and Jaguars. There’ll be concern with Jordan Love leaving the Week 8 game early with an injury, but the Packers are 6-2 and still chasing down the Lions. They’re also ninth in EPA per play on both sides of the ball.

9. Houston Texans

Strength of schedule to date: 18
Strength of schedule remaining: 9
Projected win total: 10.9
% chance of making the playoffs: 94.4
% chance of winning the division: 87.3
% chance of winning the conference: 10.0
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 4.2

The Texans eked out a divisional win against the Colts in Week 8 and extended their lead at the top of the AFC South to two games. It wasn’t easy, and the offense might have lost one of its best weapons in Stefon Diggs for a while, but DeMeco Ryans’ team will keep on grinding. They’re 10th in EPA per play allowed (-0.065).

10. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have now dropped two straight games and have lost their grip on the top spot in the NFC North. Their remaining schedule still favors them, and they’re projected to win over 10 games, but losing Christian Darrisaw to a season-ending knee injury is devastating and something Minnesota might not recover from. However, the defense is still in the top five in EPA per play allowed (-0.115).

11. Denver Broncos

The Broncos quietly went about their business, knocking off the Carolina Panthers and moving to 5-3 on the season, with Bo Nix delivering arguably the best performance of his career. Like it or not, this team has a 61% chance of making the postseason and is tops the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.180).

12. Washington Commanders

Strength of schedule to date: 28
Strength of schedule remaining: 21
Projected win total: 11.3
% chance of making the playoffs: 83.9
% chance of winning the division: 46.3
% chance of winning the conference: 12.8
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 6.3

A gift from the heavens gave the Commanders the win on the final play of the game against the Bears. Sometimes, you create the luck, and the Commanders are now 6-2 and have an 83% chance of making the playoffs. The offense is still first in EPA per play (0.203) and the defense has improved. They’re just a good team.

13. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have flown under the radar this season, but they’re now 4-3 after defeating the down-and-out Saints and carry a 59% chance of making the playoffs. Justin Herbert has been better than the numbers suggest, while the defense is second in EPA per play (-0.146) and has been just as good as the metrics indicate.

14. Chicago Bears

The Bears probably didn’t deserve to be in a position to lose on the final play, but it’s a testament to their grit that they were. The loss drops them to 4-3 and significantly hurts their playoff odds in a tight NFC North, but they’re still third in EPA per play allowed (-0.141).

15. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals offense suffered without Tee Higgins, and the defense did what it has done all season by struggling against the Eagles offense. The Bengals are now 3-5, and the margin for error just got a lot smaller. The defense is now 26th in EPA per play allowed too (0.061). Maybe there’ll be some trade deadline calls in Cincinnati.

16. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have been through the wringer this season, facing the second-toughest schedule to date. They dropped to 3-4 after a loss to the 49ers in primetime, and there are real concerns about the defense (29th in EPA per play). But with the 19th-toughest remaining schedule, they’re not quite out of it yet.

17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Mike Evans and Chris Godwin-less Buccaneers still managed to score points, but have now lost both games to their divisional rival Falcons in 2024. That won’t bode well in the race for the top spot in the NFC South, but the Buccaneers do have the third-easiest remaining schedule. The offense is top five in EPA per play. too (0.093).

18. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have all of the momentum in the NFC South. Four of their five wins this season have been versus divisional opponents, and they now hold the tiebreaker over the Buccaneers thanks to their 31-26 win in Week 8. The offense is eighth in EPA per play (0.056).

19. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts’ Week 8 loss to the Texans demonstrated the good and the bad of second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson, but the fact the Colts were still in the game is a good sign. They’re 4-4 and still in the mix for a wild-card spot, but they’ll need more consistency from Richardson.

20. Seattle Seahawks

The up-and-down Seahawks were very much down in Week 8, getting comfortably tossed aside by the Bills. They’re 4-4 and share the lead in the NFC West, but are just hard to trust on a week-to-week basis. They’re 20th in EPA per play on both sides of the ball, too.

21. Los Angeles Rams

The return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua powered the Rams offense to an excellent performance and win against the Vikings on Thursday night. They’re now 3-4 and well in the playoff mix moving forward in a wide-open NFC West. They’ll need more from a defense that ranks 27th in EPA per play allowed (0.069).

22. New York Jets

Oy vey. The Jets are still winless since firing Robert Saleh and just lost to the struggling Patriots. Where do they go from here? There’s no definitive answer, but this just feels like another failed Jets experience. D.J. Reed has earned an 80.4 overall grade, sixth among all cornerbacks in the NFL.

23. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins offense improved exponentially with Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup, with the offense scoring 20 points for the first time since Week 1, but they’re now 2-5 after the loss to the Cardinals. Their season isn’t over, and they have the seventh-easiest remaining schedule, but there’s a hole Miami needs to dig itself out of. The offense is still currently 29th in EPA per play (-0.182).

24. Cleveland Browns

The Browns are 2-6 after shocking the Ravens in Jameis Winston’s first start of the season, and though that may not lead to anything — the Browns have 6% chance of making the playoffs — the feeling around the team was a little brighter. And the offense was much more impactful too, scoring 20 points for the first time all season. For now, the offense is 28th in EPA per play (-0.181), but that could change with Winston under center.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars can take away the fact they took a great Packers team down to the wire, but the grand point is that they’re 2-6 and are in the midst of another lost season. Wholesale changes can’t be far away, right? The defense is, predictably, dead last in EPA per play (0.130).

26. New Orleans Saints

The Saints continue their freefall. They scored just eight points against the Chargers and have now lost six straight games. This has been the result of kicking the can down the road for so long, and it should lead to some serious conversations in the next few weeks.

27. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are 4-4 and right back in the NFC West race after winning their last two games. A strong Kyler Murray passing game and a last-second field goal got the win against the Dolphins in Week 8. The Cardinals now have the third-easiest remaining schedule and a real shot at winning the division. The offense is 10th in EPA per play (0.039).

28. New York Giants

The Giants hung with the Steelers for most of the game, but Daniel Jones struggled under the lights. New York is 2-6, projected to win under six games and will likely miss the playoffs for the 13th time in 16 years. The offense is 27th in EPA per play (-0.134).

29. Tennessee Titans

The Titans defense performed admirably despite the scoreline, but Sunday was a special teams disaster. Things are bleak, and the Titans have just one win all season. There isn’t much more to say about it than that. The offense is third-last in EPA per play (-0.192).

30. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders ran the Chiefs close but fell to 2-6 after a 27-20 loss. There are plenty of positives under the surface for the Raiders. The defense has been sharp for most of the season, and Brock Bowers looks like a star. They’ll also likely be playing with a rookie quarterback under center next season. The offense is 31st in EPA per play (-0.203).

31. New England Patriots

The Patriots lost Drake Maye to an injury early against the Jets, but Jacoby Brissett stepped in and helped deliver a morale-boosting win over the flailing Jets. They’re now 2-6 and are waiting to hear if Maye will miss any time. The defense is 28th in EPA per play (0.084), a very un-Patriots statistic.

32. Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young got the start for the Panthers against a good Broncos defense and had some good moments, but he and the rest of the team just look out of their depth. There’s a reason they’re 1-7. Well, many reasons. They’re dead last and second-to-last in EPA on both sides of the ball.