• Josh Allen is near the top of both stats: The Bills QB has finished top-eight in big-time throw rate every year since 2020, including a first-place finish in 2022 (7.6%) and a third-place finish in 2023 (6.2%). Through six weeks, he's produced a league-high 13 big-time throws.
• An explanation of PFF's grading system: PFF grades on a plus/minus scale, in which players are rewarded for positive plays above expectation and penalized for negative plays in increments of 0.5. Throws graded at the higher end of PFF's scale (+1.0, +1.5, and +2.0) are categorized as big-time throws. The lower range of the scale (-1.0, -1.5, and -2.0) are classified as turnover-worthy plays.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
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Now that the season is nearing its midpoint, we have larger sample sizes to analyze and can start highlighting key stats from the database. This week, we will dive into a PFF staple: big-time throws and turnover-worthy plays.
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PFF GRADING 101: A REFRESHER ON HOW PFF GRADES QB PLAY
Before we delve into the highest big-time throw and turnover-worthy play rates through Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season, let's quickly revisit how PFF's grading system works.
How PFF grades quarterback play
PFF grades on a plus/minus scale, in which players are rewarded for positive plays above expectation and penalized for negative plays in increments of 0.5.
Play-level grades will almost always range from -2 to +2, though there are very rare exceptions for the most egregious plays.
Completing a routine screen pass will earn a quarterback a neutral 0 grade, as NFL quarterbacks should be expected to complete those throws. Failing to execute that same screen results in a negative grade, though the scale also allows for harsher penalties if a quarterback's mistake is more severe — such as throwing the screen right into the arms of a lurking defender for a pick-six.
These negative plays are significant because dangerous throws don’t always lead to turnovers. So far this season, there have been 57 dropped interceptions, four of which have been thrown by Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. This helps explain why Allen currently ranks 18th in PFF passing grade despite ranking fifth in passer rating and fifth in passing touchdowns.
Conversely, positive throws often go unrecognized in traditional statistics due to external factors like dropped passes. Over the first six weeks of the season, 320 would-be completions have been lost to receiver errors. With 3,870 total completions across the league, eliminating receiver mistakes would boost completions by roughly six percentage points.
What is a big-time throw?
Throws graded at the higher end of PFF's scale (+1.0, +1.5, and +2.0) are categorized as big-time throws.
A big-time throw is a high-difficulty, high-value pass. They are characterized by excellent ball placement and timing, typically on deeper passes or into tight windows.
These throws can also occur under challenging conditions, such as when a quarterback is under heavy pressure but converts a potential negative into a positive play. Other examples include tight-window throws in the red zone, where space is limited, or perfectly placed 50-yard shots down the field.
What is a turnover-worthy play?
The lower range of the scale (-1.0, -1.5, and -2.0) are categorized as turnover-worthy plays.
For quarterbacks, turnover-worthy plays happen in two main ways: either by making a pass that is highly likely to be intercepted or by failing to secure the ball, leading to a fumble.
Not all turnover-worthy plays are equal. PFF's grading system captures the different levels of poor throws, ranging from a late pass that allows a defender to break on the ball to a misread where the ball is thrown directly to a defender or an easy interception handed directly to the defense.
Highest big-time throw rates and turnover-worthy play rates through Week 6
Highest big-time throw rates
1. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (7.7%): This comes on a somewhat limited sample, as Tagovailoa has attempted just 62 passes across two appearances this season. Still, the Dolphins quarterback recorded five big-time throws in those two games, a year after finishing top-five in total big-time throws (36) and top-10 in big-time throw rate (5.8%).
1. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (7.7%): The Bills quarterback is never too far from the top of this particular stat. In fact, he's finished top-eight in big-time throw rate every year since 2020, including a first-place finish in 2022 (7.6%) and a third-place finish in 2023 (6.2%). Through six weeks, he's produced a league-high 13 big-time throws.
3. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (6.1%): The first overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft has recorded 11 big-time throws so far this season, but six of those came in his incredible Week 2 performance against the L.A. Rams. Murray led the league in big-time throw rate in 2021 (7.9%), but his figure declined in both 2022 (2.2%, 33rd) and 2023 (2.8%, 34th). Could this be the year he returns to the top of the rankings?
4. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (5.3%): Rodgers has delivered at least two big-time throws in five of his six games, with his 12 big-time throws ranking second in the league behind only Josh Allen. The future Hall of Famer continues his impressive track record, having posted a big-time throw rate above 5.0% in 13 seasons prior to 2024.
5. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints (5.1%): Carr got off to a terrific start to the season but will now be sidelined for the next three to four weeks as he recovers from an oblique injury. Before going down, Carr tallied seven big-time throws, recording at least one in every game he played.
Highest-turnover-worthy play rates
1. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (7.7%): The sophomore quarterback just remains very inexperienced when it comes to playing the position — he’s the youngest starting quarterback in the league and has made just 21 total starts since high school.
Right now, he's struggling to balance the moments of brilliance with some back-breaking decisions with the football. In his four games, Richardson has recorded seven turnover-worthy plays, four of which have been graded on the harsher end of the scale.
2. Tyler Huntley, Miami Dolphins (6.9%): After Tua Tagovailoa went down, the Dolphins signed Huntley off the Ravens' practice squad and immediately thrust him into action in Week 4. While he has made five starts, things haven't gone smoothly; he has recorded five turnover-worthy plays but has yet to deliver a single big-time throw.
3. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (5.8%): Things haven't gone perfectly for Hurts to start the year, as his 53.5 passing grade currently ranks 31st among 36 qualifying quarterbacks and would be a career-low if the season ended today. He's produced 11 turnover-worthy plays and just five big-time throws through six weeks. The silver lining is that he has thrown just four actual interceptions so far.
4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (5.0%): This is what we've typically seen from Josh Allen — he'll deliver the big-time throws, but he's also prone to the odd turnover-worthy play. Yes, he's finished top-eight in big-time throw rate every year since 2020, but he's also recorded 171 turnover-worthy plays since joining the league in 2018 — the most in the NFL over that period by almost 30. Allen has 10 turnover-worthy plays on the year, though he is the only quarterback in the NFL who has yet to throw a pick in 2024.
5. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (4.9%): No quarterback has recorded more turnover-worthy plays than Prescott's 13 through six weeks, and the Dallas quarterback has only 10 big-time throws to make up for it. His 4.9% turnover-worthy play rate is on track to be a career-worst, which is particularly disappointing after achieving a career-best mark of 2.2% in 2023.
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