NFL Week 7 Power Rankings: The Bears are rounding into form

• Cowboys take a shellacking from Lions: The Lions climb in the rankings after humbling the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6.

• The Bears are rolling: The Bears knocked off the Jaguars in London. Where do they end up in this week’s rankings?

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Estimated reading time: 15 minutes

The power rankings below provide clear tiers on the market assessment of each NFL team, offering a comprehensive view of team standings and future prospects.

All of the below information and more can be found in PFF’s power rankings tool, which is available with a PFF+ subscription.

Key

Strength of Schedule: The relative difficulty of each team's schedule based on point spread team ratings of opponents — 1 is hardest, 32 is easiest.

Projections: Probabilities based on 10,000 season simulations, given team point spread ratings, strength of schedule and team records.

JUMP TO A TEAM:

ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC| LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

1. Kansas City Chiefs

Strength of schedule to date: 10
Strength of schedule remaining: 17
Projected avg. wins: 13.4393
% chance of making the playoffs: 98.4
% chance of winning the division: 88.63
% chance of winning the conference: 36.3
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 19.52

The Chiefs had the chance to regroup in Week 6 with a well-earned bye. They’re one of two unbeaten teams left in the NFL, and it still looks like they have another gear to hit, but they take on the San Francisco 49ers in Week 7. Creed Humphrey has the second-highest grade among all centers (93.7).

2. San Francisco 49ers

Strength of schedule to date: 30
Strength of schedule remaining: 8
Projected avg. wins: 9.8056
% chance of making the playoffs: 68.98
% chance of winning the division: 62.92
% chance of winning the conference: 14.71
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 8.26

The 49ers responded to their bad loss to the Arizona Cardinals with an impressive road win against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 6. They’re back to .500 but have a tough two weeks against the Chiefs and Cowboys before their Week 9 bye. The offense is also fifth in EPA per play (0.100).

3. Baltimore Ravens

Strength of schedule to date: 2
Strength of schedule remaining: 20
Projected avg. wins: 11.2785
% chance of making the playoffs: 89.47
% chance of winning the division: 64.67
% chance of winning the conference: 18.16
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 9.51

The Ravens knocked off the upstart Commanders 30-23 in one of the weekend’s better games and served as a reminder that they’re one of the best teams in the NFL after winning four straight games. The offense is rolling and ranks second in the NFL in EPA per play (0.172), and Lamar Jackson looks like an early MVP candidate again.

4. Detroit Lions

Strength of schedule to date: 29
Strength of schedule remaining: 4
Projected avg. wins: 10.9036
% chance of making the playoffs: 74.96
% chance of winning the division: 26.85
% chance of winning the conference: 15.07
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 8.23

The Lions went on the road in Week 6 and stomped the Cowboys 47-9, with both sides of the ball looking extremely impressive. They’re now 4-1 and battle the Minnesota Vikings atop of the NFC North in Week 7. For the first time this season, both units rank top-10 in EPA per play.

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5. Buffalo Bills

Strength of schedule to date: 15
Strength of schedule remaining: 18
Projected avg. wins: 10.1149
% chance of making the playoffs: 76.77
% chance of winning the division: 61.7
% chance of winning the conference: 9.75
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 4.42

The Bills bounced back from two-straight losses with a divisional win against the New York Jets. The defense carried the load in the second half, and that’s a good sign for a unit that’s now 13th in EPA per play allowed (-0.070).

6. Minnesota Vikings

Strength of schedule to date: 4
Strength of schedule remaining: 28
Projected avg. wins: 12.0689
% chance of making the playoffs: 86.73
% chance of winning the division: 43.56
% chance of winning the conference: 15.87
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 7.73

The Vikings haven’t put a foot wrong this season and spent Week 6 on a bye following their win in London a week earlier. However, the rest of the NFC North picked up wins to close the gap on the last undefeated team in the NFC. The NFL’s leading defense in EPA per play (-0.211) will need to be good against the Lions in Week 7.

7. Green Bay Packers

Strength of schedule to date: 28
Strength of schedule remaining: 6
Projected avg. wins: 10.9364
% chance of making the playoffs: 74.33
% chance of winning the division: 22.36
% chance of winning the conference: 15.55
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 8.6

The Packers are looking more threatening with Jordan Love back under center. Love tossed four touchdown passes in a 34-13 win against the Cardinals, and the Packers are now 4-2 but take on a tough Texans team in Week 7. They’re impressing on both sides of the ball, as the offense and defense are both top-10 in EPA per play.

8. Houston Texans

Strength of schedule to date: 25
Strength of schedule remaining: 5
Projected avg. wins: 10.8665
% chance of making the playoffs: 90.04
% chance of winning the division: 80.28
% chance of winning the conference: 11.31
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 4.94

The Texans could have fallen prey to a trap game against the New England Patriots but ran out comfortable 41-21 winners. Joe Mixon’s return will certainly help an offense that has struggled on early downs. Nico Collins’ 92.1 grade leads all receivers in the NFL.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers

Strength of schedule to date: 20
Strength of schedule remaining: 3
Projected avg. wins: 9.7949
% chance of making the playoffs: 71.06
% chance of winning the division: 28.31
% chance of winning the conference: 7.24
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 3.2

The Steelers reeled off a comfortable win against the Las Vegas Raiders and are now 4-2, keeping pace with the Ravens atop the AFC North. The defense, led by T.J. Watt, is sixth in EPA per play (-0.115), and Watt is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate again.

10. Philadelphia Eagles

Strength of schedule to date: 23
Strength of schedule remaining: 22
Projected avg. wins: 9.9063
% chance of making the playoffs: 58.5
% chance of winning the division: 39.45
% chance of winning the conference: 7.45
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 3.8

Nick Sirianni talking smack to Eagles fans after the Week 6 win against the Browns won’t do him any favors, but getting back in the win column will. The Eagles held on to beat the Browns 20-16 following their bye week and now take on the Giants on the road in Week 7. Jordan Mailata has an 88.4 overall grade, fourth among tackles.

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Strength of schedule to date: 7
Strength of schedule remaining: 11
Projected avg. wins: 9.8881
% chance of making the playoffs: 66.41
% chance of winning the division: 43.49
% chance of winning the conference: 7.25
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 3.39

The Buccaneers will rightly be feeling excellent after dropping 51 points on the Saints. They’re 4-2 and have the joint lead of the NFC South, but they have a tough game against the Ravens in Week 7. The offense is sixth in EPA per play (0.096).

12. Cincinnati Bengals

Strength of schedule to date: 11
Strength of schedule remaining: 16
Projected avg. wins: 7.7228
% chance of making the playoffs: 29.07
% chance of winning the division: 6.21
% chance of winning the conference: 2.18
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.03

Does the Bengals' climb start now? They’re 2-4 after defeating the New York Giants in primetime and take on the Browns, Eagles and Raiders in their next three games. They’ll have to be perfect to stay in the playoff hunt, but the offense is seventh in EPA per play (0.082) and can carry them.

12. Chicago Bears

Strength of schedule to date: 32
Strength of schedule remaining: 2
Projected avg. wins: 9.0272
% chance of making the playoffs: 38.84
% chance of winning the division: 7.23
% chance of winning the conference: 4.43
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.28

The Bears are 4-2 after defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars in London, and Caleb Williams is looking more and more like the prince who was promised with every passing game. On top of that, they have the No. 3 defense in EPA per play allowed (-0.186).

14. Dallas Cowboys

Strength of schedule to date: 5
Strength of schedule remaining: 13
Projected avg. wins: 8.6379
% chance of making the playoffs: 36.12
% chance of winning the division: 22.07
% chance of winning the conference: 3.86
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.97

The Cowboys are now 3-3 after their humbling loss to the Lions in Week 6. What comes next in Dallas? The pressure will surely be on Mike McCarthy to find a quick fix, and losses like this will surely not sit well in Jerry World. The defense, maybe the root of all the issues, is 27th in EPA per play allowed (0.097).

15. Los Angeles Chargers

Strength of schedule to date: 11
Strength of schedule remaining: 24
Projected avg. wins: 9.2363
% chance of making the playoffs: 57.43
% chance of winning the division: 7.24
% chance of winning the conference: 3.79
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.62

The Chargers are worth paying attention to at 3-2. The offense is still finding its feet and struggling for yards, but the defense is consistently showing up. Los Angeles is second in EPA per play allowed (-0.196) and has a favorable schedule upcoming.

16. Washington Commanders

Strength of schedule to date: 17
Strength of schedule remaining: 27
Projected avg. wins: 9.7761
% chance of making the playoffs: 55.22
% chance of winning the division: 35.67
% chance of winning the conference: 4.63
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.11

Even a Week 6 loss to the surging Ravens won’t stop the good vibes in Washington. The Commanders are 4-2 and own the top spot in the NFC East. They take on the Panthers in Week 7, and the number one offense in EPA per play (0.221) might take over again.

17. Atlanta Falcons

Strength of schedule to date: 9
Strength of schedule remaining: 26
Projected avg. wins: 9.7743
% chance of making the playoffs: 64.82
% chance of winning the division: 47.67
% chance of winning the conference: 5.91
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.67

The Falcons are 4-2 after winning their third straight divisional game and now carry a 48% chance to win the NFC South. The offense is clicking, too: Atlanta has recorded 973 yards of offense in the last two games and is ninth in EPA per play (0.045).

18. Denver Broncos

Strength of schedule to date: 26
Strength of schedule remaining: 9
Projected avg. wins: 8.0876
% chance of making the playoffs: 35.43
% chance of winning the division: 3.54
% chance of winning the conference: 2.05
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.83

The jury will remain out on rookie Bo Nix. He’s shown some moments of promise, but the offense isn’t why the Broncos are 3-3, and that was clear in the Week 6 loss to the Chargers. The defense is fourth in EPA per play allowed (-0.150) and is propping this team up.

19. New York Jets

Strength of schedule to date: 13
Strength of schedule remaining: 29
Projected avg. wins: 8.1496
% chance of making the playoffs: 43.37
% chance of winning the division: 24.03
% chance of winning the conference: 3.24
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.23

The Jets lost a heartbreaker on Monday Night Football against the Bills, falling to 2-4. The defense ranks 10th in EPA per play (-0.076), but the offense is in need of answers. Trading for Davante Adams could be the solution.

19. Indianapolis Colts

Strength of schedule to date: 21
Strength of schedule remaining: 19
Projected avg. wins: 8.2067
% chance of making the playoffs: 41.91
% chance of winning the division: 14.05
% chance of winning the conference: 2.35
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.07

The Colts picked up a tough road win against the Titans in Week 6 and sit 3-3 with an even point differential. They’re the epitome of fine, but they’re now 10th in EPA per play on offense (0.032).

21. New Orleans Saints

Strength of schedule to date: 5
Strength of schedule remaining: 32
Projected avg. wins: 7.511
% chance of making the playoffs: 18.14
% chance of winning the division: 7.95
% chance of winning the conference: 1.3
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.51

The Saints were going to struggle without Derek Carr and a number of defensive injuries, but no one expected them to give up a 50-burger to the Buccaneers. They’re now 2-4 and haven’t won since Week 2. Erik McCoy leads all centers with a 95.5 grade.

22. Miami Dolphins

Strength of schedule to date: 31
Strength of schedule remaining: 23
Projected avg. wins: 7.5654
% chance of making the playoffs: 31.36
% chance of winning the division: 12.47
% chance of winning the conference: 1.91
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.78

The Dolphins will be without Tua Tagovailoa for at least another week, which means we’ll see another week of the 32nd-ranked offense in EPA per play (-0.236) one more time. The bye week was spent preparing for a potentially winnable game against the Colts in Week 7, but it’ll be tough.

23. Seattle Seahawks

Strength of schedule to date: 17
Strength of schedule remaining: 15
Projected avg. wins: 7.7784
% chance of making the playoffs: 23.59
% chance of winning the division: 17.67
% chance of winning the conference: 1.77
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.86

The Seahawks have lost three straight games after falling to the 49ers on Thursday night, but they still have the joint lead in the NFC West. Back-to-back games against the Falcons and Bills won’t help the Seahawks' cause. Charles Cross has the second-highest run-blocking grade among all tackles (90.1).

24. Los Angeles Rams

Strength of schedule to date: 2
Strength of schedule remaining: 21
Projected avg. wins: 6.3506
% chance of making the playoffs: 10.15
% chance of winning the division: 8.1
% chance of winning the conference: 0.8
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.32

The Rams were on a bye week in Week 6 and have had the second-toughest schedule to date, so that break came at the right time. They now have the 22nd-toughest remaining schedule and a chance to kickstart their season with a home game against the Raiders in Week 7. They’ll need to fix a defense that is 32nd in EPA per play allowed (0.147).

25. New York Giants

Strength of schedule to date: 14
Strength of schedule remaining: 12
Projected avg. wins: 6.4746
% chance of making the playoffs: 7.65
% chance of winning the division: 2.81
% chance of winning the conference: 0.53
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.24

The Giants fell to 2-4 after their primetime loss to the Bengals and now have the 12th-toughest remaining schedule. Things are going to get tough at MetLife, but at least the Giants have Dexter Lawrence: the defensive tackle has 24 pressures, third-most at the position.

26. Cleveland Browns

Strength of schedule to date: 19
Strength of schedule remaining: 1
Projected avg. wins: 5.023
% chance of making the playoffs: 5.61
% chance of winning the division: 0.81
% chance of winning the conference: 0.4
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.12

Another week, another embarrassing performance from the Cleveland Browns offense. They haven’t scored more than 20 points all season and are 31st in EPA per play (-0.227). They also have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL. Woof.

27. Tennessee Titans

Strength of schedule to date: 24
Strength of schedule remaining: 13
Projected avg. wins: 5.6765
% chance of making the playoffs: 9.83
% chance of winning the division: 3.64
% chance of winning the conference: 0.47
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.24

The Titans are 1-4 after losing a close game to the Colts, and three of their losses have been one-score games. They’ve been competitive but could be looking toward the 2025 NFL Draft for a new quarterback. The offense is 27th in EPA per play (-0.187), and the schedule is going to get a little tougher.

28. Jacksonville Jaguars

Strength of schedule to date: 16
Strength of schedule remaining: 25
Projected avg. wins: 5.3904
% chance of making the playoffs: 6.24
% chance of winning the division: 2.03
% chance of winning the conference: 0.21
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.08

There is no seat hotter than Doug Pederson’s right now. The Jaguars were blown out in London and fell to 1-5 on the season. The defense is 31st in EPA per play allowed (0.140), but the Jaguars have the 25th-toughest remaining schedule. Is there a chance of salvation? Probably not.

29. Las Vegas Raiders

Strength of schedule to date: 21
Strength of schedule remaining: 7
Projected avg. wins: 6.0698
% chance of making the playoffs: 8.43
% chance of winning the division: 0.59
% chance of winning the conference: 0.43
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.14

The Raiders were blown out by the Steelers in Aidan O’Connell’s first start of the season, falling to 2-4. Regardless of who’s under center, the offense will struggle. Las Vegas is 30th in EPA per play (-0.206) and has the seventh-toughest remaining schedule. It’s not going to get easier.

30. Arizona Cardinals

Strength of schedule to date: 1
Strength of schedule remaining: 30
Projected avg. wins: 6.6211
% chance of making the playoffs: 13.81
% chance of winning the division: 11.31
% chance of winning the conference: 0.79
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.23

The Cardinals have had the toughest schedule to date and are 2-4 after their 34-13 loss to the Packers in Week 6. Things will get easier, as the Cardinals have the fourth-easiest remaining schedule, but they’ll need more from a defense that ranks 29th in EPA per play allowed (0.105).

31. New England Patriots

There will be plenty of reasons for optimism in Drake Maye’s first NFL start, regardless of the interesting timing of it. Maye showed why he could be the quarterback of the future in New England, but the Patriots still have a long way to go before they’re competitive. The offense is currently 29th in EPA per play (-0.195) but could improve with Maye taking more risks.

32. Carolina Panthers

Every week, the Panthers drift from plucky underdog to a team that doesn't look like an NFL-caliber group. They were somewhere in the middle this week and still gave up over 400 yards of offense. There’s no hope for a team that ranks bottom-10 in EPA per play on both sides of the ball.