NFL Week 6 Power Rankings: Just how good are the Commanders?

• The 49ers lose again: A fourth-quarter collapse against the Cardinals gave San Francisco more reasons for concern.

• Minnesota remains perfect: The Vikings are still 5-0 after a win against the Jets in London. How high can they climb?

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Estimated reading time: 9 minutes

The power rankings below provide clear tiers on the market assessment of each NFL team, offering a comprehensive view of team standings and future prospects.

All of the below information and more can be found in PFF’s power rankings tool, which is available with a PFF+ subscription.

Key

Strength of Schedule: The relative difficulty of each team's schedule based on point spread team ratings of opponents — 1 is hardest, 32 is easiest.

Projections: probabilities based on 10,000 season simulations, given team point spread ratings, strength of schedule and team records.

JUMP TO A TEAM:

ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

1. Kansas City Chiefs

Strength of schedule to date: 7
Strength of schedule remaining: 14
Projected win total: 12.9
% chance of making the playoffs: 96.79
% chance of winning the division: 83.12
% chance of winning the conference: 33.74
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 18.36

The Chiefs are 5-0 after a hard-fought win against a competitive Saints team, and it still feels like they have another level to ascend to despite the perfect record. However, they’ll take on the 49ers in a Super Bowl rematch after their Week 6 bye. The offense is now just outside of the top 10 in EPA per play (0.013).

2. San Francisco 49ers

Strength of schedule to date: 30
Strength of schedule remaining: 4
Projected win total: 9.2
% chance of making the playoffs: 55.92
% chance of winning the division: 47.37
% chance of winning the conference: 11.94
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 6.73

Sunday was an inexcusable loss for the 49ers, as they gave up a 10-point lead to the Cardinals heading into the fourth quarter. The lack of a kicker following Jake Moody’s injury swung the game, but the 49ers are now 2-3 and lost their second divisional matchup of the season. The silver lining is they have a top-10 offense and defense in EPA per play.

3. Baltimore Ravens

Strength of schedule to date: 1
Strength of schedule remaining: 23
Projected win total: 11.0
% chance of making the playoffs: 86
% chance of winning the division: 66.36
% chance of winning the conference: 17.76
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 9.62

The Ravens outlasted the Bengals in an excellent overtime game and have now won three straight games against some impressive competition. They’ve had the toughest strength of schedule to date and have come out on the other side with reasons to be optimistic. One of those reasons? They’re second in EPA per play on offense (0.152).

4. Buffalo Bills

Strength of schedule to date: 21
Strength of schedule remaining: 12
Projected win total: 10.2
% chance of making the playoffs: 77.89
% chance of winning the division: 61.21
% chance of winning the conference: 11.15
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 5.48

Some strange fourth-quarter playcalling likely cost the Bills this game, and they’ve now lost two straight games with the offense struggling again. They still lead the AFC East but take on the New York Jets in Week 6. They’re also top-10 in EPA per play on both offense and defense, so maybe they’ll be fine.

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5. Detroit Lions

Strength of schedule to date: 31
Strength of schedule remaining: 3
Projected win total: 10.1
% chance of making the playoffs: 61.89
% chance of winning the division: 21.79
% chance of winning the conference: 10.99
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 5.92

The Detroit Lions' bye week saw them watch every other team in the NFC North win this week, and the division continues to heat up. They’ll take on the Cowboys on the road in Week 6, and they’ll lean on an offense that’s fourth in EPA per play (0.095).

6. Minnesota Vikings

Strength of schedule to date: 6
Strength of schedule remaining: 30
Projected win total: 12.0
% chance of making the playoffs: 87.1
% chance of winning the division: 48.51
% chance of winning the conference: 16.46
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 8.15

It wasn’t pretty, but the Vikings remain undefeated at 5-0 after a 23-17 win against the Jets in London. Sam Darnold struggled against his old team, but a pick-six and another excellent performance from the Vikings defense sealed the win. The defense is now second in EPA per play allowed (-0.211).

7. Pittsburgh Steelers

Strength of schedule to date: 18
Strength of schedule remaining: 5
Projected win total: 9.1
% chance of making the playoffs: 58.79
% chance of winning the division: 25.35
% chance of winning the conference: 6.44
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.8

The Steelers lost a close game to the Cowboys and lost their hold on the AFC North for some double jeopardy. They’ve still defied expectations so far this season, but now have thefifth-toughest remaining schedule. James Daniels leads all guards with a 92.9 grade, but he's out for the year.

8. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles were on a bye in Week 5, and the fact that every other NFC East team won doesn’t help their cause, especially when things already feel shaky through the first month of the season. There should be some emphasis on fixing a defense that is 28th in EPA per play allowed (0.081) after the bye.

9. Green Bay Packers

Strength of schedule to date: 24
Strength of schedule remaining: 11
Projected win total: 10.6
% chance of making the playoffs: 69.71
% chance of winning the division: 22.49
% chance of winning the conference: 14.3
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 8.19

The Packers got their first win of the season with Jordan Love under center, and his connection with tight end Tucker Kraft carried the offense against a beat-up Rams team in Week 5. Xavier McKinney’s 90.8 grade leads all safeties in 2024.

10. Dallas Cowboys

Strength of schedule to date: 8
Strength of schedule remaining: 15
Projected win total: 9.6
% chance of making the playoffs: 54.48
% chance of winning the division: 32.69
% chance of winning the conference: 7.58
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 3.66

The Cowboys earned a tough win on the road against the Steelers in Week 5, with Dak Prescott throwing a killer late touchdown pass to Jalen Tolbert. The defense looked functional for the second straight week too, even without Micah Parsons, whose 82.4 grade is 10th among all edge rushers.

11. New Orleans Saints

Strength of schedule to date: 25
Strength of schedule remaining: 29
Projected win total: 8.8
% chance of making the playoffs: 44.57
% chance of winning the division: 30.47
% chance of winning the conference: 5.28
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.33

The Saints struggled against a good Chiefs defense in their 26-13 loss on Monday Night Football and have now lost three straight games, falling to 2-3. Things could get worse if Derek Carr is forced to miss time with an oblique injury. Despite the recent struggles, they’re still in the top 10 in EPA per play on both sides of the ball.

12. Houston Texans

Strength of schedule to date: 17
Strength of schedule remaining: 8
Projected win total: 10.2
% chance of making the playoffs: 82.24
% chance of winning the division: 71.41
% chance of winning the conference: 9.83
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 4.42

C.J. Stroud looked impressive in the Week 5 win against the Bills, and the Texans are now 4-1 with a firm grasp on the AFC South. The injury to Nico Collins is concerning if he misses time, but there’s enough talent on offense to carry the load. Collins’ 92.1 overall grade is the highest among receivers in the NFL.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Strength of schedule to date: 14
Strength of schedule remaining: 10
Projected win total: 8.7
% chance of making the playoffs: 42.78
% chance of winning the division: 27.03
% chance of winning the conference: 4.19
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.75

The Buccaneers lost an excellent Thursday Night Football matchup to the Falcons but still have reasons to be optimistic. They’re 3-2 and still have a joint lead in the NFC South, and to top it off, they are seventh in EPA per play on offense (0.053).

14. Seattle Seahawks

Strength of schedule to date: 27
Strength of schedule remaining: 8
Projected win total: 8.3
% chance of making the playoffs: 34.62
% chance of winning the division: 28.5
% chance of winning the conference: 3.15
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.51

The Seahawks were touchdown favorites against the Giants heading into Week 5 but fell to a prepared New York defense. Seattle has now dropped two straight games but still leads the NFC West. The defense is still great and ranks seventh in EPA per play allowed (-0.112).

15. Cincinnati Bengals

Strength of schedule to date: 8
Strength of schedule remaining: 18
Projected win total: 7.1
% chance of making the playoffs: 23.37
% chance of winning the division: 5.94
% chance of winning the conference: 1.89
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.85

The Bengals offense looked great against the Ravens, but at 1-4, they’re officially doomed. This is a hole Joe Burrow and Co. just can’t dig themselves out of. The disparity is clear, too. They’re third in EPA per play on offense (0.110), and third-last in EPA on defense (0.122).

16. New York Jets

Strength of schedule to date: 13
Strength of schedule remaining: 27
Projected win total: 8.2
% chance of making the playoffs: 43.56
% chance of winning the division: 22.62
% chance of winning the conference: 3.8
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.83

The Jets have lost two straight games and looked lost offensively again in London. Aaron Rodgers was sacked three times and threw three interceptions against a good Vikings defense, and a tough Week 6 game against the Bills could see the Jets drop to 2-4. They’re 24th in EPA per play on offense (-0.100), and something isn’t clicking.

17. Washington Commanders

Strength of schedule to date: 29
Strength of schedule remaining: 22
Projected win total: 10.0
% chance of making the playoffs: 58.13
% chance of winning the division: 33.81
% chance of winning the conference: 6.34
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.76

The Washington Commanders are 4-1 and just keep rolling after a comfortable 34-13 win against the Cleveland Browns. They’ve got the 22nd toughest remaining schedule moving forward and lead the league in EPA per play by a distance (0.249).

18. Denver Broncos

Strength of schedule to date: 15
Strength of schedule remaining: 7
Projected win total: 8.9
% chance of making the playoffs: 52.87
% chance of winning the division: 9.71
% chance of winning the conference: 4.09
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.82

The Broncos are the most surprising 3-2 team in the NFL after a 34-18 win against the Las Vegas Raiders. The defense continues to ball out, too, and has played a big part in the Broncos' three-game winning streak. They’re third in EPA per play allowed (-0.205).

19. Los Angeles Chargers

Strength of schedule to date: 11
Strength of schedule remaining: 21
Projected win total: 8.4
% chance of making the playoffs: 42.18
% chance of winning the division: 5.48
% chance of winning the conference: 2.83
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.21

The Chargers are 2-2 and were on a bye week in Week 5. They’ll face the Denver Broncos in Week 6 and hope to end a two-game losing streak in a tough divisional matchup. The defense is first in EPA per play allowed (-0.218).

20. Chicago Bears

Strength of schedule to date: 32
Strength of schedule remaining: 2
Projected win total: 8.5
% chance of making the playoffs: 33.88
% chance of winning the division: 7.21
% chance of winning the conference: 3.76
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.66

The Bears offense continues to grow with each passing week, and Caleb Williams was excellent in the Week 5 win against the Carolina Panthers. They’re now 3-2 and face the Jacksonville Jaguars in London in Week 6. The defense is fourth in EPA per play allowed (-0.203).

21. Indianapolis Colts

Strength of schedule to date: 20
Strength of schedule remaining: 26
Projected win total: 7.4
% chance of making the playoffs: 29.22
% chance of winning the division: 11.41
% chance of winning the conference: 1.84
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.79

The Colts dropped their first loss since Week 2 in a fun offensive game vs the Jaguars, but the offense didn’t miss a beat with Joe Flacco under center. They have the sixth-easiest remaining schedule, but the defense is 25th in EPA per play allowed (0.044).

22. Atlanta Falcons

Strength of schedule to date: 3
Strength of schedule remaining: 28
Projected win total: 9.2
% chance of making the playoffs: 54.79
% chance of winning the division: 39.52
% chance of winning the conference: 5.69
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.45

The Falcons won their Week 5 matchup on the back of a big Kirk Cousins performance. They’re now 3-2 and heading in the right direction as the offense continues to find its feet with Cousins under center. Drake London’s 44 targets are the most without a drop this season.

23. Los Angeles Rams

Strength of schedule to date: 4
Strength of schedule remaining: 16
Projected win total: 6.3
% chance of making the playoffs: 10.55
% chance of winning the division: 8.3
% chance of winning the conference: 0.81
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.31

The Rams are now 1-4 and sinking. They ran the Packers well in a close game but ultimately couldn’t get the job done. The impending return of Cooper Kupp will aid the offense, but the Rams defense is dead last in EPA per play allowed (0.147).

24. Miami Dolphins

Strength of schedule to date: 26
Strength of schedule remaining: 19
Projected win total: 7.7
% chance of making the playoffs: 33.71
% chance of winning the division: 12.8
% chance of winning the conference: 2.42
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.06

The Dolphins picked up their first win since Week 1 against the New England Patriots, but the road ahead is still bleak until the return of Tua Tagovailoa. They’re 31st in EPA per play on offense (-0.236) and face the Colts in Week 7 after a bye week.

25. Las Vegas Raiders

Strength of schedule to date: 19
Strength of schedule remaining: 6
Projected win total: 6.7
% chance of making the playoffs: 17.89
% chance of winning the division: 1.69
% chance of winning the conference: 0.94
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.43

The short-lived Gardner Minshew era might be over. The Raiders benched Minshew in the Week 5 loss to the Denver Broncos and are 28th in EPA per play (-0.189), but they have something in their first-round pick Brock Bowers, who has earned an 82.7 grade, the best at the tight end position.

26. Cleveland Browns

Strength of schedule to date: 28
Strength of schedule remaining: 1
Projected win total: 5.5
% chance of making the playoffs: 10.07
% chance of winning the division: 2.35
% chance of winning the conference: 0.71
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.36

The Cleveland Browns need to make a change at quarterback. They’re 1-4 and being held down by poor quarterback play after scoring just 13 points against a soft Commanders defense. They’re dead last in EPA per play on offense (-0.254).

27. Tennessee Titans

Strength of schedule to date: 22
Strength of schedule remaining: 20
Projected win total: 6.5
% chance of making the playoffs: 20.81
% chance of winning the division: 10.88
% chance of winning the conference: 1.25
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.47

The Titans were on a bye week in Week 5 and will hope to have starting quarterback Will Levis back for the divisional matchup against the Colts in Week 6. They’re fifth in EPA per play allowed on defense (-0.167).

28. New York Giants

Strength of schedule to date: 12
Strength of schedule remaining: 13
Projected win total: 7.3
% chance of making the playoffs: 15.1
% chance of winning the division: 4.98
% chance of winning the conference: 1.23
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.49

The Giants shocked the Seahawks in Week 5, winning 29-20 on the road on the back of an all-around strong performance — all without rookie superstar Malik Nabers. They’re 15th in EPA per play allowed (-0.051).

29. New England Patriots

Strength of schedule to date: 5
Strength of schedule remaining: 31
Projected win total: 5.8
% chance of making the playoffs: 10.52
% chance of winning the division: 3.37
% chance of winning the conference: 0.42
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.23

The Patriots lost 15-10 to the Dolphins in a game that’ll be better off left in the archives. They’re now 1-4 and show little signs of life early in the season. New England ranks 26th in EPA per play on offense (-0.182).

30. Jacksonville Jaguars

Strength of schedule to date: 16
Strength of schedule remaining: 25
Projected win total: 6.2
% chance of making the playoffs: 14.09
% chance of winning the division: 6.3
% chance of winning the conference: 0.89
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.42

There are no more winless teams in the NFL! The Jaguars offense finally clicked against the Colts, with Trevor Lawrence throwing for 371 yards and two touchdowns. The concern is that they’re 31st in EPA per play allowed (0.124).

31. Arizona Cardinals

Strength of schedule to date: 2
Strength of schedule remaining: 24
Projected win total: 7.1
% chance of making the playoffs: 19.77
% chance of winning the division: 15.83
% chance of winning the conference: 1.31
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.58

The Cardinals showed real resolve to fight back from 10 points down against the 49ers in Week 5. Kyler Murray quarterbacked the offense to 358 yards, and the Cardinals ended a quick two-game losing streak — they’re 10th in EPA per play on offense (0.040).

32. Carolina Panthers

Strength of schedule to date: 23
Strength of schedule remaining: 17
Projected win total: 5.3
% chance of making the playoffs: 5.17
% chance of winning the division: 2.98
% chance of winning the conference: 0.17
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.06

The Panthers were blown out by the Bears in Week 5 and gave up more than 30 points for the third time this season. They’re cooked. What’s to say? They’re bottom-10 in EPA on both sides of the ball.