• Bet Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase o73.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM): Despite slow start, he's fifth in the NFL in targets and 24th in Yards Per Route Run. Excellent buy-low spot with all factors in his favor.
• Bet Bengals RB Joe Mixon u65.5 rush yards vs. Bengals (-110 DraftKings): The Bengals currently have one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL, while ‘Phins top 10 in both EPA/rush allowed and rushing success rate allowed.
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Estimated reading time: 2 mins
Week 4 kicks off Thursday with the Miami Dolphins (3-0) visiting the Cincinnati Bengals (1-2). Here are the best bets from PFF staff:
Ben Brown: Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill o5.5 receptions (-142 FanDuel)
· His aDot (average depth of target) sits at 10.0 on 29 targets, but only 24.1% are considered deep targets. That means Hill is getting the occasional deep shot but is mainly being used close to the line of scrimmage. With game script also working in Hill’s favor, expect him to once again lead the Dolphins in target share and easily eclipse this reception prop number Thursday night.
Martyn Carlisle: Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase o73.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM; playable to 80.5)
· The Dolphins defense is facing a short week with disrupted travel after spending more than 40 minutes on the field in blistering temperatures against the Bills. Fatigue is likely to be a real issue, and you can expect one of the league's best receiving corps to take advantage of a coverage unit that has already given up a ridiculous 57.3% success rate on passing downs. Ja'Marr Chase has been underwhelming so far, but he is still fifth in the NFL in targets and 24th in Yards Per Route Run. This is an excellent buy-low spot with all factors in his favor.
Arjun Menon: Bengals RB Joe Mixon 65.5 rush yards (-110 DraftKings; playable to 63.5)
· The Bengals currently have one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL: 30th in EPA/rush, 32nd in rushing success rate, and 30th in YPC. The Dolphins rank in the top 10 in both EPA/rush allowed and rushing success rate allowed. The Dolphins love to show a lot of blitz looks at the line, and that could lead Burrow to check into more passes and fewer runs by Mixon, helping this under bet.
Tej Seth: Joe Mixon 65.5 rush yards (-110 DraftKings; playable to 63.5)
PFF Greenline top play: Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki u1.5 receptions (+145 FanDuel)
· With only 1 target in two of three games, Gesicki clearly is taking a backseat to Hill and Jaylen Waddle. It's PFF Greenline's greatest edge Thursday night —21.8% — but if this bet seems a bit too sweaty, there are u2.5 offerings at other books with a lot shorter odds.
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