• Chiefs at the top: The Chiefs weren’t at their best on offense in Week 2, but wide receiver Rashee Rice has earned an 83.6 receiving grade and caught 12 passes for 178 yards through two weeks.
• A bad start for the Giants: The Giants have started the season 0-2 and are in danger of freefalling despite not giving up a touchdown in Week 2. They’re bottom-10 in EPA per play on offense and EPA allowed per play on defense.
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The power rankings below provide clear tiers on the market assessment of each NFL team, offering a comprehensive view of team standings and future prospects. All of the below information and more can be found in PFF's power rankings tool, which is available with a PFF+ subscription.
Key
Strength of Schedule: The relative difficulty of each team's schedule based on point spread team ratings of opponents — 1 is hardest, 32 is easiest.
Projections: probabilities based on 10,000 season simulations, given team point spread ratings, strength of schedule and team records.
JUMP TO A TEAM:
ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Strength of schedule to date: 11
Strength of schedule remaining: 13
Projected win total: 11.86
% chance of making the playoffs: 87.77%
% chance of winning the division: 66.89%
% chance of winning conference: 24.59%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 13.44%
The Chiefs weren’t at their best on offense in Week 2, but wide receiver Rashee Rice has earned an 83.6 receiving grade and caught 12 passes for 178 yards through two weeks. All that matters in Kansas is that the Chiefs are 2-0 after a close win vs. the Bengals.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Strength of schedule to date: 14
Strength of schedule remaining: 5
Projected win total: 10.23
% chance of making the playoffs: 69.64%
% chance of winning the division: 49.88%
% chance of winning conference: 16.92%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 9.65%
The injuries of Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel will hurt the functionality of the 49ers offense. But even despite a Week 2 road loss to the Minnesota Vikings, they’ll remain one of the top teams in the NFL from top to bottom and rank eighth in EPA per play on offense (0.052).
3. Buffalo Bills
Strength of schedule to date: 22
Strength of schedule remaining: 6
Projected win total: 10.95
% chance of making the playoffs: 78.49%
% chance of winning the division: 54.95%
% chance of winning conference: 15.46%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 8.13%
It’s early days, but the Bills are 2-0 after a Week 2 win against their division-rival Miami Dolphins. Josh Allen is rolling once again, and the Bills offense now ranks second in EPA per play (0.176).
4. Baltimore Ravens
Strength of schedule to date: 2
Strength of schedule remaining: 10
Projected win total: 8.88
% chance of making the playoffs: 49.15%
% chance of winning the division: 28.78%
% chance of winning conference: 8.13%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 4.32%
The Ravens lost to the Raiders in Week 2, letting a lead slip late. They now start the season 0-2 for the first time since 2015. Surprisingly, the Ravens' usually stout defense is currently 22nd in EPA allowed per play (0.015).
5. Philadelphia Eagles
Strength of schedule to date: 24
Strength of schedule remaining: 31
Projected win total: 9.88
% chance of making the playoffs: 64.98%
% chance of winning the division: 46.75%
% chance of winning conference: 11.19%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 5.55%
The Eagles have been enjoying their shiny new toy in Saquon Barkley, who has 208 rushing yards, two touchdowns and a 68.4 rushing grade through two games. He dropped a potential game-sealing pass against the Falcons in Week 2. Otherwise, the Eagles might be 2-0. Their 30th-ranked defense in EPA allowed per play is something to watch.
6. Detroit Lions
Strength of schedule to date: 29
Strength of schedule remaining: 7
Projected win total: 9.28
% chance of making the playoffs: 52.75%
% chance of winning the division: 28.12%
% chance of winning conference: 9.10%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 4.63%
The Lions will be frustrated by their Week 2 loss to the Buccaneers, and Jared Goff’s 43.2 passing grade and three interceptions after two games are concerning. However, the offense is still 11th in EPA per play (0.007), and edge rusher Aidan Hutchison is off to a Defensive Player of the Year-type campaign.
7. New Orleans Saints
Strength of schedule to date: 30
Strength of schedule remaining: 30
Projected win total: 10.01
% chance of making the playoffs: 65.22%
% chance of winning the division: 41.84%
% chance of winning conference: 8.56%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 4.04%
The Saints have been the surprise package of the NFL, scoring on 14 of their 16 offensive drives through two weeks. They’re 2-0 after beating the Cowboys and lead the league in EPA per play on offense (0.298).
8. Dallas Cowboys
Strength of schedule to date: 13
Strength of schedule remaining: 22
Projected win total: 9.22
% chance of making the playoffs: 53.41%
% chance of winning the division: 35.56%
% chance of winning conference: 8.53%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 4.38%
The Cowboys offense hasn’t set the world alight, and Dak Prescott’s 52.4 passing grade through two games isn’t great, but there should be too much top-end talent to negate a meltdown.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers
Strength of schedule to date: 23
Strength of schedule remaining: 4
Projected win total: 9.60
% chance of making the playoffs: 57.34%
% chance of winning the division: 34.49%
% chance of winning conference: 7.56%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 3.55%
The Steelers have surprised everyone by jumping to a 2-0 start with wins against the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos. The offense has been mistake-free, but it’s predictably been the defense carrying the load. They’re the third-ranked unit in EPA allowed per play (-0.289).
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Strength of schedule to date: 19
Strength of schedule remaining: 19
Projected win total: 9.57
% chance of making the playoffs: 58.81%
% chance of winning the division: 33.17%
% chance of winning conference: 7.69%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 3.65%
The Buccaneers have been electric through two weeks and claimed a scalp by beating the Lions in Week 2. The offense is top-five in EPA per play (0.146), while Chris Godwin has earned a 91.7 grade, the highest among all receivers.
11. Houston Texans
Strength of schedule to date: 27
Strength of schedule remaining: 11
Projected win total: 9.91
% chance of making the playoffs: 70.06%
% chance of winning the division: 60.40%
% chance of winning conference: 9.01%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 4.30%
The Texans are rolling again with C.J. Stroud under center, but it remains to be seen how they’ll perform with the 11th-hardest remaining schedule. Impressively, the team ranks in the top 10 in EPA generated per play on offense and EPA allowed per play on defense.
11. Green Bay Packers
Strength of schedule to date: 21
Strength of schedule remaining: 15
Projected win total: 8.96
% chance of making the playoffs: 47.37%
% chance of winning the division: 23.80%
% chance of winning conference: 5.14%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.28%
The Packers will be hoping to have Jordan Love back sooner or later, but they churned out 261 rushing yards against the Colts en route to a Week 2 win. Second-year receiver Jayden Reed has started well, earning an 81.6 grade, the seventh-highest among all receivers.
13. Minnesota Vikings
Strength of schedule to date: 10
Strength of schedule remaining: 29
Projected win total: 9.74
% chance of making the playoffs: 58.89%
% chance of winning the division: 31.46%
% chance of winning conference: 7.68%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 3.70%
A Week 2 win over the San Francisco 49ers saw the Vikings move to 2-0, and they’ve looked great with Sam Darnold at quarterback. They’re seventh in EPA per play on offense and sixth in EPA allowed per play on defense.
14. Cincinnati Bengals
Strength of schedule to date: 3
Strength of schedule remaining: 27
Projected win total: 8.27
% chance of making the playoffs: 38.49%
% chance of winning the division: 19.88%
% chance of winning conference: 4.58%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.49%
The Bengals are 0-2, but there are reasons to be optimistic. They have the sixth-easiest remaining schedule, and the offense looked much improved in the Week 2 loss to the Chiefs. Linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither has impressed, earning an 89.8 grade.
15. Los Angeles Chargers
Strength of schedule to date: 32
Strength of schedule remaining: 8
Projected win total: 9.56
% chance of making the playoffs: 56.77%
% chance of winning the division: 22.34%
% chance of winning conference: 6.03%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.75%
Jim Harbaugh’s rushing attack has arrived in Los Angeles. The Chargers are rushing for 197.5 rushing yards per game and have started the season 2-0. They’re also leading the league in EPA allowed per play on defense (-0.465).
16. Miami Dolphins
Strength of schedule to date: 17
Strength of schedule remaining: 17
Projected win total: 8.82
% chance of making the playoffs: 47.25%
% chance of winning the division: 16.87%
% chance of winning conference: 5.27%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.58%
Where did the Dolphins go from here? Tua Tagovailoa may be out for an undetermined amount of time after suffering another concussion in the Week 2 loss to the Bills. Even with Tagovailoa under center, the Dolphins were 24th in EPA per play on offense.
17. Seattle Seahawks
Strength of schedule to date: 31
Strength of schedule remaining: 9
Projected win total: 9.17
% chance of making the playoffs: 48.96%
% chance of winning the division: 27.45%
% chance of winning conference: 6.65%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.89%
Seattle’s passing game took off against New England in Week 2, with Geno Smith earning a 79.2 passing grade, and the Seahawks are now 2-0. Mike Macdonald’s new-look defense is fifth in EPA allowed per play on defense (-0.221).
18. New York Jets
Strength of schedule to date: 4
Strength of schedule remaining: 24
Projected win total: 8.91
% chance of making the playoffs: 49.45%
% chance of winning the division: 20.95%
% chance of winning conference: 5.36%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.70%
Aaron Rodgers and the Jets are alive after a 24-17 Week 2 win against the Tennessee Titans. The veteran quarterback has been impressive through two games, earning a 79.8 passing grade, the fourth-highest among all quarterbacks.
19. Cleveland Browns
Strength of schedule to date: 20
Strength of schedule remaining: 1
Projected win total: 8.05
% chance of making the playoffs: 35.70%
% chance of winning the division: 16.85%
% chance of winning conference: 3.83%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.77%
The Browns are 1-1 after a strong defensive performance against the Jaguars but face the toughest remaining schedule across the league. Myles Garrett has been excellent again, earning an 88.5 grade through two games.
19. Chicago Bears
Strength of schedule to date: 28
Strength of schedule remaining: 25
Projected win total: 8.46
% chance of making the playoffs: 38.62%
% chance of winning the division: 16.62%
% chance of winning conference: 4.48%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.13%
Caleb Williams has shown early growing pains, earning a 44.1 passing grade through two weeks, but the Bears are 1-1. The defense is fourth in EPA allowed per play (-0.255) and could beat up on teams thanks to the eighth-easiest remaining schedule.
21. Las Vegas Raiders
Strength of schedule to date: 1
Strength of schedule remaining: 18
Projected win total: 7.72
% chance of making the playoffs: 29.25%
% chance of winning the division: 7.71%
% chance of winning conference: 2.33%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.93%
The Raiders looked great in their comeback win against the Ravens in Week 2. Rookie Brock Bowers caught all nine of his targets for 98 yards, earning an 84.6 receiving grade, and Antonio Pierce’s tough defense ranks ninth in EPA allowed per play on defense (-0.108).
22. Atlanta Falcons
Strength of schedule to date: 5
Strength of schedule remaining: 28
Projected win total: 8.63
% chance of making the playoffs: 45.70%
% chance of winning the division: 22.40%
% chance of winning conference: 5.30%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.43%
Atlanta looked better on offense in the Week 2 victory vs. the Eagles and are now 1-1. Quarterback Kirk Cousins also looked better in the pocket, which is a big positive moving forward, but the Falcons are still 21st in EPA per play on offense (-0.080).
23. Los Angeles Rams
Strength of schedule to date: 7
Strength of schedule remaining: 2
Projected win total: 6.94
% chance of making the playoffs: 20.45%
% chance of winning the division: 8.83%
% chance of winning conference: 2.48%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.23%
The Rams are 0-2 and dead last in EPA allowed per play on defense (0.207) after losing 41-10 to the Cardinals in Week 2. They could be sinking fast after losing Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, both for extended periods.
23. Arizona Cardinals
Strength of schedule to date: 6
Strength of schedule remaining: 14
Projected win total: 7.75
% chance of making the playoffs: 31.13%
% chance of winning the division: 13.84%
% chance of winning conference: 3.17%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.41%
The Cardinals were hot in Week 2, trouncing the Los Angeles Rams 41-10 while Kyler Murray earned a 96.9 grade. The offense has been top-three in EPA per play (0.170), so they’re heading in the right direction.
25. Indianapolis Colts
Strength of schedule to date: 9
Strength of schedule remaining: 32
Projected win total: 6.90
% chance of making the playoffs: 23.36%
% chance of winning the division: 12.84%
% chance of winning conference: 2.02%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.99%
The Colts have had a tough start to the season, but they have the easiest remaining schedule, so all hope is not lost. However, their 28th-ranked defense in EPA per play (0.121) is a concern, especially since they’ve given up 474 rushing yards through two weeks.
26. New England Patriots
Strength of schedule to date: 14
Strength of schedule remaining: 11
Projected win total: 7.06
% chance of making the playoffs: 23.47%
% chance of winning the division: 7.23%
% chance of winning conference: 1.62%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.73%
The Patriots will feel unlucky not to be 2-0 after an overtime loss to the Seahawks, but they’ve been positive so far. Second-year edge rusher Keion White has started hot, racking up five sacks and earning an 82.3 grade.
27. Denver Broncos
Strength of schedule to date: 12
Strength of schedule remaining: 3
Projected win total: 5.97
% chance of making the playoffs: 12.30%
% chance of winning the division: 3.06%
% chance of winning conference: 0.89%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.48%
The Broncos are in the early stages of the Bo Nix era, and the early returns are worrying. Nix’s 41.6 passing grade is the second-lowest among all quarterbacks, and the offense is 31st in EPA per play (-0.330).
27. Jacksonville Jaguars
Strength of schedule to date: 16
Strength of schedule remaining: 23
Projected win total: 6.89
% chance of making the playoffs: 24.67%
% chance of winning the division: 16.34%
% chance of winning conference: 2.25%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.07%
An 0-2 start has left the Jaguars in a tough position, and the offense has scored just 30 points across two games. Linebacker Devin Lloyd has earned a 90.4 grade, second-highest among all linebackers, but the Jaguars need to right the ship immediately.
29. Washington Commanders
Strength of schedule to date: 26
Strength of schedule remaining: 25
Projected win total: 7.28
% chance of making the playoffs: 24.85%
% chance of winning the division: 12.65%
% chance of winning conference: 1.73%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.71%
The Commanders picked up their first win of the Jayden Daniels era, thanks to seven field goals from Austin Seibert. It wasn’t always pretty, but the offense currently ranks fourth in EPA per play on offense (0.149). That’s something to cling to.
30. New York Giants
Strength of schedule to date: 25
Strength of schedule remaining: 16
Projected win total: 5.89
% chance of making the playoffs: 10.96%
% chance of winning the division: 5.04%
% chance of winning conference: 0.91%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.46%
The Giants have started the season 0-2 and are in danger of freefalling despite not giving up a touchdown in Week 2. They’re bottom-10 in EPA per play on offense and EPA allowed per play on defense.
31. Tennessee Titans
Strength of schedule to date: 18
Strength of schedule remaining: 20
Projected win total: 6.16
% chance of making the playoffs: 16.48%
% chance of winning the division: 10.42%
% chance of winning conference: 1.07%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.45%
Mistakes have been the Titans' downfall. Cleaner performances in Weeks 1 and 2 meant they could easily be 2-0 instead of 0-2. Alas, they’re without a win, but the defense is eighth in EPA allowed per play (-0.117).
32. Carolina Panthers
Strength of schedule to date: 8
Strength of schedule remaining: 21
Projected win total: 5.49
% chance of making the playoffs: 8.26%
% chance of winning the division: 2.59%
% chance of winning conference: 0.47%
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.18%
It looks like the Panthers might be waving the white flag already. They’re 0-2 and don’t look like winning a game all season. The offense is dead, dead, dead last in EPA per play (-0.512).
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