• Lock in Texans -1: It's hard to pick against the home team in a win-and-in contest, but that's what I recommend here. C.J. Stroud is the better quarterback, and the Texans have been the more reliable offense this season when their quarterback is under center. This should be a tight game, but side with the team with the better quarterback in Week 18.
• Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill vs. Bills CB Rasul Douglas: Douglas has transformed Buffalo’s defense and made them functional once again. But stopping Tyreek Hill is a different type of challenge. If the Bills can slow down Hill, they should win this game. But if they don’t, they might be watching the NFL playoffs at home this year.
• Get ahead of the game: PFF's Best Bets Tool uses PFF data to uncover the biggest edges in the betting market. Click here to see the best bets for this week.
Estimated reading time: 10 minutes
Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Matchup to watch: Steelers edge T.J. Watt vs. Ravens RT Morgan Moses
There is a good chance Moses doesn't play in this game at all or only plays a few drives. But watching him (even in limited snaps) against Watt should be a sight to see. Moses missed the first matchup with a shoulder injury but has since bounced back and has been graded out as one of the top right tackles in the NFL. If the Ravens do limit his snaps on Saturday, Watt could have a monster day against backup tackle Daniel Faalele.
Favorite bet: Steelers -4 (-110)
The Steelers have everything to play for here, with a potential playoff spot on the line. Meanwhile, the Ravens will rest most of their key starters, including Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Kyle Hamilton, etc. Expect the Steelers to win on Saturday afternoon against their division rival.
Houston Texans (-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Matchup to watch: Colts RT Braden Smith vs. Texans edge Will Anderson Jr.
Smith returned to the field in Week 17, giving a massive boost to the offensive line. He'll get another tough test this week against Anderson, who is coming off a two-sack game against the Titans. The winner of this matchup might ultimately decide the game, as Gardner Minshew isn't a very effective quarterback when under pressure.
Favorite bet: Texans -1
It's hard to pick against the home team in a win-and-in contest, but that's what I recommend here. C.J. Stroud is the better quarterback, and the Texans have been the more reliable offense this season when their quarterback is under center. This should be a tight game, but side with the team with the better quarterback in Week 18.
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
Matchup to watch: Browns WR Cedric Tillman vs. Bengals CB Cam Taylor-Britt
Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore are expected to be out in Week 18, which means more snaps for Tillman. The rookie from Tennessee has had some nice moments this season, but the Browns will likely rely on him to be their No. 1 receiver this week. Look for Cam Taylor-Britt to be across from him on most snaps, which should be a good test for the former SEC receiver.
Favorite bet: Browns +7
Neither team has anything to play for In Week 18, with the Browns clinching the No. 5 seed and the Bengals out of playoff contention. But don't expect Cleveland's defense to back down, even if some starters rest. They have a depth across the defensive line and should be able to keep this game close on Sunday.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions (-3)
Matchup to watch: Vikings WR Justin Jefferson vs. Lions CB Cameron Sutton
Detroit allowed CeeDee Lamb to record well over 200 yards in Week 17, and it could have been an even bigger day for him had he not fumbled the ball out of the back of the end zone. It doesn't get any easier for the Lions, who will now face Jefferson in Week 18. With Nick Mullens back under center for Minnesota, Jefferson could be in for a big day in the final game of the year.
Favorite bet: Lions -3
The Lions are expected to play their starters in Week 18 with the No. 2 seed still up for grabs in the NFC. Plus, the Lions will almost certainly want to rinse the sour taste of last week's loss out of their mouth, so expect them to win here at home against Mullens and the Vikings.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-5) vs. Tennessee Titans
Matchup to watch: Titans LT Andre Dillard vs. Jaguars edge Josh Allen
There are several outstanding pass-rushers right now in the NFL, but one who doesn’t get enough attention nationally is Josh Allen. He is having the best season of his career, and his overall grade has improved in every season in the NFL. This is a nightmare matchup for the Titans, with Dillard posting a 44.1 pass-block grade this season. Look for the Titans to help him out early and often on Sunday.
Favorite bet: Titans +5.5 (-110)
The Jaguars need this game to clinch the AFC South, but don't expect this to be an easy victory. Mike Vrabel's team can be a tough out because of how well they play on defense. And with this potentially being Derrick Henry‘s last game as a Titan, look for him to go out with a bang. Don't be surprised if the Titans pull off the upset outright in Week 18, but consider them a lock at +5.5.
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots (-2.5)
Matchup to watch: Patriots C David Andrews vs. Jets DI Quinnen Williams
The offensive line of the Patriots has been a mess this season, but Andrews has been one of the few bright spots. He’ll have his hands full in Week 18 against Williams, who has been one of the best defensive players in the NFL this season. If the Patriots want to succeed on offense this week, blocking Williams will be priority No. 1.
Favorite bet: Over 30.5 (-110)
You read that right. The total between the Jets and the Patriots in Week 18 is 30.5. Both offenses are among the worst in the NFL, and that should lead to a bunch of turnovers. Expect a few defensive touchdowns to push this total over in New England.
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints (-3)
Matchup to watch: Saints WR Chris Olave vs. Falcons CB A.J. Terrell
Terrell is still one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL, so it will be fascinating to see how much the Saints decide to play Olave on the outside this week. Will they move Olave in the slot to avoid Terrell? Or will they let their second-year receiver challenge one of the top man-to-man corners in the league?
Favorite bet: Saints -3 (-110)
The Saints still have an outside shot of winning the division or making the playoffs as a wild card. But they must win in Week 18 for either of those things to happen. Coming off an impressive road victory against the Buccaneers, look for them to take care of business at home against the Falcons, who could be making another quarterback change yet again this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
Matchup to watch: Buccaneers C Robert Hainsey vs. Panthers DT Derrick Brown
If the Panthers are going to have any chance of stealing this game, they will need to do so on defense. Carolina has a significant advantage in the trenches on defense, including Derrick Brown. Hainsey has not had a very strong 2023 season, and that could be a problem against Brown on Sunday.
Favorite bet: Buccaneers -4.5 (-110)
Baker Mayfield (ribs) might not be 100% going into this game, but the Buccaneers are the much better team and need a win to clinch the NFC South. The Panthers might give them a bit of a game but don't expect their offense to do much. Take Tampa Bay -4.5 and expect them to win the division.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
Matchup to watch: Packers WR Christian Watson vs. Bears CB Jaylon Johnson
The expectation is that Watson will return from his nagging hamstring injury for Week 18, but this won’t be an easy return. Johnson has been arguably the best cornerback in the league and has the size and length to keep Watson in check. But if Watson can make a big play or two down the field, that would be a massive win for the Packers.
Favorite bet: Packers -3.5 (-110)
Chicago has been one of the hottest teams in the NFL this season, and they would love nothing more than to upset the Packers and keep them out of the playoffs. But Green Bay is playing well on offense right now and should be able to score 24-plus points. Take the Packers to win and cover in this big NFC North matchup in Green Bay.
Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)
Matchup to watch: Broncos RT Mike McGlinchey vs. Raiders edgeMaxx Crosby
The Broncos paid big money this offseason to sign McGlinchey, and they might have some buyer’s remorse. He has a pass-block grade of just 63.5, 50th among 86 qualifying tackles, and has been only an average player for Denver. McGlinchey will be tested in Week 18 against one of the most disruptive defensive players in the game in Maxx Crosby. Advantage: Raiders.
Favorite bet: Raiders -2.5
Both teams were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 17, but you can bet that each side will want to win this game. However, Antonio Pierce is coaching for his job, and his defense has played out of their minds over the last two months. Expect the Raiders to take care of business in their final game with the hopes that Pierce can earn the head coaching job.
Philadelphia Eagles (-5) vs. New York Giants
Matchup to watch: Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Eagles SCB Avonte Maddox
Maddox returned to the field for the Eagles in Week 17, and the hope is that he can lock down the slot position moving forward. He'll be challenged in Week 18 against Robinson, who has started to come on for the Giants over the last few weeks. If the Giants want to have any success on offense this week, look for Robinson to get a bunch of opportunities early in this game.
Favorite bet: Eagles -5 (-110)
It's hard to trust the Eagles right now after losing at home to the Cardinals. But the Eagles desperately need a win to build positive momentum heading into the playoffs. Plus, they still have an outside shot of winning the NFC East should the Cowboys slip up in Washington. Look for the Eagles to get back on track in the season's final week.
Seattle Seahawks (-3) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Matchup to watch: Cardinals WR Greg Dortch vs. Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon
The Cardinals like to move Dortch all around the field, which means he should see a ton of snaps against Witherspoon in the slot. Witherspoon has been the best rookie defensive back in the NFL this season and has a chance to make the All-Pro team as a rookie. While Dortch isn't a big-name player, he has been an effective weapon for the Cardinals over the last few weeks. This is a good matchup on Sunday between two dynamic players in the slot.
Favorite bet: Cardinals +3
The Seahawks are still alive in the NFC wild-card race and need a win and a Packers loss to get in. But the Seahawks just aren't playing that well right now. Meanwhile, the Cardinals earned their biggest win of the season in Week 17 and are just a different team with Kyler Murray under center. Look for the Cardinals to have a ton of success on the ground in Week 18 and to ultimately cover the 3-point spread in Arizona.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
Matchup to watch: Chargers WR Quentin Johnston vs. Chiefs CB Jaylen Watson
It's been a rough rookie season for Johnston, who has been unable to emerge as the dynamic weapon the Chargers were hoping to get when they spent their first-round pick on him in the 2023 NFL Draft. But Week 18 gives him another chance to build positive momentum for the offseason.
Favorite bet: Chiefs +3.5
Both teams will be without their starting quarterbacks as the Chiefs have decided to rest Patrick Mahomes. But Kansas City’s defense shouldn’t have any problem slowing down Easton Stick on Sunday. Expect this to be a low-scoring game in Los Angeles, with the Chiefs ultimately covering the 3.5-point spread.
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers (-4)
Matchup to watch: Rams QB Carson Wentz vs. 49ers QB Sam Darnold
Wentz and Darnold aren't facing one another on the field, but these former top picks will get a chance to start in Week 18. Darnold has the leg up in this matchup as he's been with the 49ers all year, but seeing how Wentz looks in Sean McVay's offense will be fascinating.
Favorite bet: 49ers -4
This game doesn’t mean anything for the 49ers, and the Rams have already clinched a wild-card spot. Both teams are resting starters, but the 49ers have much more depth and are at home. Look for San Francisco to win and cover with Darnold under center in Week 18.
Dallas Cowboys (-13) vs. Washington Commanders
Matchup to watch: Cowboys LG T.J. Bass vs. Commanders DI Jonathan Allen
Second-year guard Tyler Smith (foot) will likely miss this game due to injury, which means Bass will get the start. Bass has struggled this season when inserted into the lineup, but that isn't surprising for a rookie UDFA. That could be bad news for the Cowboys as the Commanders have two stud defensive tackles in Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. Look for the Cowboys to help out Bass as much as possible in Week 18.
Favorite bet: Commanders +13
The Cowboys need to win this game to clinch the No. 2 seed and the NFC East, but 13 points is a ton for a road divisional game. The Commanders hung with the 49ers for most of the game last week and should be able to do the same on Sunday. Look for the Cowboys to win, but for this game to be much closer than the 13-point spread.
Buffalo Bills (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins
Matchup to watch: Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill vs. Bills CB Rasul Douglas
Arguably the best trade at the deadline this year was the Bills scooping up Rasul Douglas from the Packers. Douglas has transformed Buffalo’s defense and made them functional once again. But stopping Tyreek Hill is a different type of challenge. If the Bills can slow down Hill, they should win this game. But if they don’t, they might be watching the NFL playoffs at home this year.
Favorite bet: Dolphins +3
The Dolphins don’t need to win this game quite as much as the Bills, who are fighting for their playoff lives. But don’t expect Miami to lay down, especially with the AFC East on the line. The Dolphins will want to bounce back from their ugly loss to the Ravens in Week 17. And getting them at home plus three points is too good to pass up here.
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