NFL Week 17 Betting: Midweek market update

Welcome to PFF's weekly midweek market update.

This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

Injury, weather conditions and public pick releases can all affect line movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article.

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SEA@CHI | LAC@NE | DEN@CIN | ARI@LAR | DAL@PHI | NYJ@BUF TEN@JAX | CAR@TB | LV@NO | IND@NYG |MIA@CLE | GB@MIN
ATL@WAS | DET@SF

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears

Spread: This spread has been moving all week. After opening 1.5 points above the lookahead, it moved to 4. Some market-leading books have taken it out to 4.5, but most books are at 4.

Total: A pick release on the over pushed this total to as high as 44. It has since slid back down to 42. Some 42.5s are still on the board.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots

Spread: One-way action on the Patriots has moved this spread from the opening 5.5 to 4. No book has taken it below that number, but a few 4.5s remain.

Total: There hasn’t been much movement, but there is certainly disagreement in the market about this total. Currently, you can find as low as 42 and as high as 43.5.

Situational Factors: The Chargers' slight rest advantage after playing on TNF is mitigated by the need to travel cross-country.

Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: The market is currently split between 3 and 3.5. We’ve yet to see any book surpass either of those numbers. It is a critical matchup here, with the Bengals needing a win if they want any chance at a playoff appearance. This isn’t necessarily the spot, but these “must-win” situations can provide value betting in the opposite direction.

Total: This total ticked up to 48 within minutes of opening, and on Monday morning, a pick release pushed this total out to 50. We’ve seen some market correction as we’ve settled in at a consensus of 49.5.

Situational Factors: The Broncos will have a slight rest advantage, having played on TNF.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy into this movement on the total and lock in the over 49 at bet365. A 49.5 is good, too, and it is found at most other shops.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

Spread: The Rams have gotten healthy and found their stride, as reflected in the move out to 7 in this game, a far cry from the field-goal lookahead line. We haven’t seen any books take it to 7.5, but there hasn’t been enough Cardinals support to push this back below a touchdown. There are still some reasonably priced 6.5s out there.

Total: Slight move down from 48 to 47.5. A handful of books spent some time at 49 early in the week, but that was never a consensus price.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: There has been a pretty significant move down to below 10, with the status of Jalen Hurts very much in question. The Eagles suffered their first loss since mid-October after some late-game heroics from Jayden Daniels in Week 16. This was after Hurts exited with a concussion, and he’s yet to clear protocol. This line is baking in a distinct chance that Hurts does not play.

Total: Similar story with the total, given a 2-point drop from the opener, which was already 1.5 points below the lookahead market. If Hurts can’t go, it’ll be Kenny Pickett once more.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

Spread: There is some big movement here, as this spread reached as high as 11 before falling below the lookahead line of 9.5. This latest movement was fueled by a pick release on the Jets when they were north of a 10-point dog.

Total: This total has hovered in the 46 to 47.5 range, so seemingly some differing opinions in the market pushing this in opposite directions. We’ve landed on a consensus of 47, but you can still find some 46.5s at a few books.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Another case of flipped favorites through some relatively meaningless numbers. There are a couple of books at 1.5.

Total: This bounced back and forth between 40 and 40.5 before a pick release on the under moved it to 39.5.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: This line has been stable around the opening number of 8, but we are starting to see some 7.5s appear.

Total: This total jumped out to as high as 49.5 before settling in at 48.5. Not much movement aside from that.

Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints

Spread: Flipped favorite now, with the Raiders at -1 coming off their first win since September. Last week's win pushed the Raiders out of the No. 1 spot for the 2025 draft, and Antonio Pierce’s post-game press conference made it clear there would be no efforts to tank in favor of improving draft position. There have been some rumblings of a Derek Carr return this week, but the market clearly believes that to be noise.

Total: The original opener here was 39.5, but it re-opened at 37.5 after the Saints were blanked at Lambeau Field on Monday night.

Buy/Sell: With motivation a non-issue in the Las Vegas locker room, and another week of Spencer Rattler on deck, I’m taking the Raiders at -1.

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants

Spread: After opening at 7, this line bounced back and forth between 7.5 and 8 throughout the week. I expect 7.5 to be the closing number.

Total: There has only been a slight move down to 40.5 from the opening number of 41, inching towards the lookahead line of 39.5. A couple of books have taken this to 40.

Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns

Spread: The market is making its thoughts on QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson very clear as the Browns approach 7-point underdogs. The Browns managed only 6 points against a Bengals defense ranked 25th according to our power ratings. It’s 6.5 across the board, but some books have tested the waters at 7.

Total: There is not much movement here, but a handful of books are reaching 39.5.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Game of the Week potential. We’ve seen both teams favored at some point, but we’re now at a PK with an ever-so-slight lean towards the Packers.

Total: This got past the lookahead line of 48.5 to 49 before dropping back to nearly the opening number. Plenty of 48.5s still on the board.

Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders

Spread: A battle of the rookie QBs here, and support for the Michael Penix Jr.-led Falcons has pushed this spread down to as low as 3.5. That number has since come back up to 4 across the board.

Total: The first move on this total was actually a dip down to 46.5 before momentum on the over caught on. The market is currently split between 47.5 and 48.

Buy/Sell: I’ll sell the Falcons support and buy the Commanders at -4. The Falcons defense has dominated their last two games, with multiple defensive touchdowns. Those outlier results suppress this spread, especially when you factor in a matchup against Jayden Daniels, whose 1.76% turnover-worthy play figure is good for second-lowest on the season.

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers

Spread: This spread has bounced back and forth between 3 and 3.5 all week.

Total: Similar story on the total; it has bounced between 50.5 and 51 all week. We’re at 50.5 across the board now.

Buy/Sell: The Lions don’t fully control their own destiny in wrapping up the No. 1 seed this week, but I fully anticipate them to play as if they do. With the 49ers out of contention, I’m taking the Lions at -3.5 +100 at Caesars.