NFL Week 16 Preview: Schedule, storylines and matchups to watch

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Estimated reading time: 23 minutes

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Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

Storyline: AFC West Wild-Card Battle

The Chargers’ blowout loss at home in Week 15 opened the door for the Broncos to leapfrog them in the standings. However, a season sweep of Denver with a win here would flip the script. The Chargers face an uphill battle, though, due to a drop in offensive production that has led to three losses in their last four games.

On the other sideline, the Broncos enter this matchup on a four-game winning streak. However, those wins came against teams currently outside the playoff picture. A victory here would not only redeem their Week 6 loss to the Chargers but also give them crucial momentum heading into the final stretch of the regular season.

Matchup to Watch: Chargers LT Rashawn Slater vs. Broncos ED Nik Bonitto

Bonitto’s breakout season is in full swing, particularly over the last four games. Since Week 11, he leads the NFL with a 92.9 overall defensive grade, highlighted by 90.0-plus grades in three of those games. Meanwhile, Slater has also shined, earning a 91.3 overall grade since Week 11, ranking him second among tackles in that span.

Additional News:

Broncos CB Pat Surtain II’s (ankle) injury is considered minor after exiting last week’s game.

Houston Texans (-2.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Storyline: No Mahomes for AFC Divisional Clash?

Patrick Mahomes limping off the field late in Week 15 against Cleveland sent a shock through Chiefs Kingdom. Initial reports list him as week-to-week, and his status remains uncertain for this slightly shortened week despite starting practice as a full participant. If Mahomes can’t go, Carson Wentz is poised to take over.

The Texans, riding high after clinching their second consecutive AFC South title, now aim to climb the AFC standings and surpass the Steelers for the No. 3 seed.

Matchup to Watch: Chiefs G/T Joe Thuney vs. Texans ED Will Anderson Jr.

With the left tackle position in flux, the Chiefs moved Thuney from left guard to left tackle last week. Tasked with blocking Myles Garrett, Thuney struggled, posting a 43.5 PFF pass-blocking grade and allowing a 23.3% pressure rate. This week, he faces no easier task against Anderson, who has earned a 90.2 pass-rush grade since Week 12 and delivered a strip-sack of Tua Tagovailoa last week.

Additional News:

Chiefs released RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
WR Marquise Brown (shoulder) is targeting a return this week.
Texans G Kenyon Green (shoulder) has been activated off IR.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

Storyline: AFC North Showdown

Despite losing to the Eagles in Week 15, the Steelers clinched a playoff berth thanks to other results. This matchup carries extra weight, with the AFC North title on the line. A Steelers win crowns them division champs, while a Ravens win secures a playoff spot and evens the division race.

The Ravens look to avenge their 16-18 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 11, where a failed two-point conversion kept the game from heading to overtime. Baltimore’s defense held the Steelers to six field goals in that contest, all nailed by Chris Boswell.

Matchup to Watch: Ravens WR Rashod Bateman vs. Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr.

Bateman has quietly been one of the league’s best at creating separation. According to PFF, he leads the NFL with a 75.17% separation rate. Last week, he earned his highest receiving grade of the season (85.3), thanks to a 90.91% separation rate. Porter, however, has been one of the stickiest corners in the league, with a 60.89% lockdown percentage, ranking fourth overall.

Additional News:

Ravens and WR Diontae Johnson have “mutually agreed” to excuse him from team activities.
Steelers ED T.J. Watt (ankle) returned to practice in a limited capacity.
WR George Pickens (hamstring) did not practice to start the week.

New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons (-10.5)

Storyline: Falcons Turn to First-Round QB Michael Penix Jr.

With a playoff spot on the line, the Falcons have benched Kirk Cousins in favor of rookie Michael Penix Jr., their top-10 pick in the 2024 draft. Penix will make his first career start against a struggling Giants team, hoping to build on his flashes of promise in limited action.

The Giants, now on a nine-game losing streak, appeared uninspired in their 35-14 loss to the Ravens last week. They turn back to Drew Lock at quarterback, who has endured injuries and inconsistent play this season.

Matchup to Watch: Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. vs. Giants Secondary

Although Penix has seen only six dropbacks this season, he showcased rhythm, timing, and even his first big-time throw in relief of Cousins. The Giants’ secondary has been a weak spot, earning a 47.3 team coverage grade and allowing the worst EPA per pass play in the league. Last week, Lamar Jackson torched them with five big-time throws, earning a 90.1 PFF passing grade.

Additional News:

Falcons signed K Riley Patterson after Younghoe Koo was placed on IR.

Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) vs. Carolina Panthers

Storyline: Cardinals Fighting to Stay Alive in NFC Standings

At 7-7, the Cardinals are clawing to keep their playoff hopes alive. Their dominant win over New England in Week 15 snapped a four-game skid. With only three games left, Arizona must handle its own business and hope other teams falter to stay in the hunt.

Carolina’s positive play was short-lived, as the team struggled against Dallas last week, marking its fourth straight loss. This downturn came after the Panthers showed signs of improvement in the three weeks prior, despite not securing a win.

Matchup to Watch: Panthers QB Bryce Young vs. Cardinals S Budda Baker

Four turnovers marred Young’s Week 15 performance, earning him a 39.5 overall grade — his lowest since Week 2. He posted a 0-to-3 big-time throw-to-turnover-worthy play ratio, a sharp contrast to the 12-to-3 ratio in the three previous games. The question remains: which version of Young will show up?

Baker recently signed a three-year extension and continues to shine. He is having a career year, earning a 76.7 overall defensive grade — the highest of his career.

Additional News:

The Cardinals signed S Budda Baker to a three-year, $54 million extension.
Panthers LBs Trevin Wallace and Claudin Cherelus were placed on IR and will miss the rest of the season.

Detroit Lions (-7) vs. Chicago Bears

Storyline: Lions Looking to Rebound from Week 15 Loss

The Lions’ 11-game win streak ended with a thrilling loss to the Bills in Week 15, a game that showcased two powerhouse offenses. Despite racking up over 500 yards, Detroit’s slow start proved costly. If the Lions — and Bills — take care of business, a rematch could loom in the playoffs.

This week, Detroit looks to complete a season sweep of the Bears, who have now lost eight straight games. The coaching change from Matt Eberflus to Thomas Brown hasn’t produced the results the franchise hoped for, with a 68-25 point differential since the switch.

Matchup to Watch: Lions CB Kindle Vildor vs. Bears WR Rome Odunze

The loss of Carlton Davis has tested the Lions' cornerback depth. Vildor, who has struggled this season with a 46.7 PFF coverage grade, will step up. However, he showed improvement against the Bills, earning a 70.0 coverage grade.

Odunze, the Bears' rookie receiver, has yet to find consistency but has excelled in contested situations. His 76.9% contested catch rate leads the NFL among receivers with 10 or more contested targets.

Additional News:

Lions RB David Montgomery (torn MCL) is hoping for a return this season.
Lions CB Carlton Davis (broken jaw) and DI Alim McNeill (torn ACL) were placed on IR.
Lions ED Aidan Hutchinson (broken leg) is aiming for a Super Bowl return.

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)

Storyline: Can the Titans Spoil the Colts’ Playoff Chances?

The Colts' playoff hopes took a hit with last week’s loss to Denver. Now, they need help from other teams to stay in the postseason race. Costly self-inflicted mistakes, including a fumble at the goal line by Jonathan Taylor, dashed their Week 15 chances.

The Titans may be eliminated, but they remain competitive. Head coach Brian Callahan benched Will Levis in favor of Mason Rudolph, potentially signaling the end of Levis' tenure as the team’s franchise quarterback.

Matchup to Watch: Colts QB Anthony Richardson vs. Titans Coverage

Richardson missed the previous matchup in Week 6, watching from the sidelines as Joe Flacco led the offense. Inconsistent play continues to plague Richardson, who earned a 47.7 PFF passing grade in Week 15, averaging just 4.3 yards per attempt and committing two turnover-worthy plays.

The Titans' defense has been opportunistic recently, forcing five turnovers over the past two games — more than a third of their season total.

Additional News:

Colts claimed former 49ers CB Ambry Thomas off waivers.

Los Angeles Rams (-3) vs. New York Jets

Storyline: Rams Look to Control NFC West

With their Thursday night win over San Francisco and Seattle’s Sunday night loss, the Rams now lead the NFC West thanks to their Week 9 victory over the Seahawks. With the division race tight, Los Angeles can’t afford to slip up as road favorites.

The Jets snapped a four-game losing streak with a road win in Week 15, scoring 30 points for the first time this season. The offense sealed the victory with a late touchdown drive against Jacksonville.

Matchup to Watch: Rams TE Tyler Higbee vs. Jets Coverage

The Rams are set to get a boost with the return of Tyler Higbee, who missed time with a knee injury. While Higbee’s 2023 season was underwhelming (58.7 PFF receiving grade), his familiarity with the offense could prove valuable during the playoff push.

The Jets have struggled to cover tight ends recently, allowing 20 receptions for 171 yards and two touchdowns over the last three weeks. In Week 15, Brenton Strange had a career day against them, more than doubling his previous single-game high for receptions.

Additional News:

The Jets interviewed former Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff to replace Joe Douglas, who was let go in November.
Jets WR Davante Adams recorded his 100th career touchdown, becoming the 12th player in NFL history to reach that milestone.
Rams activated TE Tyler Higbee (knee) from the PUP list.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) vs. Washington Commanders

Storyline: Battle for the NFC East Crown

The Eagles are riding a double-digit win streak after a decisive victory over the Steelers. A win here would secure the NFC East title and bolster their chances in a three-way tie atop the NFC standings. Expect Philadelphia to give their best effort in this pivotal matchup.

Meanwhile, the Commanders aim to fend off their division rivals and stay in the NFC Wild Card race. They’re also seeking revenge for their Week 11 loss to the Eagles — a game that wasn’t as close as the final eight-point margin indicated, with Washington scoring late to narrow the gap.

Matchup to Watch: Commanders WR Terry McLaurin vs. Eagles CB Quinyon Mitchell

Jayden Daniels’ favorite target, McLaurin, has been on fire. Over his last three games, he has 20 catches for 248 yards and five touchdowns, the latter leading the NFL during that span. McLaurin’s stellar season has earned him an 84.7 receiving grade, ranking 11th among wide receivers.

Mitchell, the Eagles' rookie corner, has had an excellent season, earning a 75.7 coverage grade, which ranks 16th at his position. He has yet to allow a touchdown, making him well-equipped to handle McLaurin’s recent scoring surge.

Additional News:

Washington opened DT Jonathan Allen’s 21-day practice window.

Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

Storyline: Bengals Claw to Avoid Elimination

The Bengals face another must-win game as they host the Browns. Although their playoff chances are slim, Cincinnati has done its part with recent road wins over Dallas and Tennessee.

The Browns, on the other hand, are searching for answers at quarterback. Jameis Winston’s recent struggles led to his benching in favor of Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Over the last three weeks, Winston has 10 turnover-worthy plays, the most in the NFL during that span.

Matchup to Watch: Browns QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson vs. Bengals Turnover Defense

Thompson-Robinson struggled in Week 15, earning a 54.4 PFF passing grade and throwing his third interception of the season. Across 38 dropbacks this year, he has managed just 100 passing yards and a 28.5 passing grade.

Cincinnati’s defense stepped up in Week 15, forcing six turnovers against the Titans, including a fumble return for a touchdown. They nearly added another score if not for Jordan Battle’s goal-line fumble.

Additional News:

Browns RB Nick Chubb suffered a broken foot in Week 14.

Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks

Storyline: NFC Playoff Implications on Both Sides

The Vikings secured a playoff berth in Week 15 and now sit in a three-way tie with Philadelphia and Detroit atop the NFC standings. They aim to keep the momentum going and push for the No. 1 seed.

The Seahawks’ loss to Green Bay dropped them out of the division lead and playoff picture. Every remaining game is critical as Seattle tries to catch the Rams and Commanders.

Matchup to Watch: Seahawks QB Geno Smith vs. Vikings Pass Rush

Smith left last week’s game with an injury but returned to full practice this week. His presence is crucial against a Vikings defense that ranks third in the NFL with 92 quarterback knockdowns. Smith thrives under pressure, recording a 64.1 passing grade, the fifth-best among qualifying quarterbacks.

Additional News:

Rain is expected in the forecast.
Seahawks RBs Kenneth Walker III (calf) and Zach Charbonnet (oblique) missed practice to start the week.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills (-14.5)

Storyline: Bills Riding Momentum to the Finish Line

The Bills are flying high after a statement win over Detroit. They aim to climb the AFC standings and challenge Kansas City with two games against the struggling Patriots over the next three weeks.

The Patriots have lost five of their last six games and don’t pose much of a threat to Buffalo. Their latest defeat came from the Cardinals, highlighted by ball security issues, including three fumbles.

Matchup to Watch: Bills RB James Cook vs. Patriots Front Seven

Cook delivered a stellar performance against Detroit, earning a career-high 92.3 grade. He rushed for 7.5 yards per carry and scored two touchdowns, marking his fourth multi-score game this season.

The Patriots’ run defense has struggled all year. In Week 15, they allowed James Conner to average 6.9 yards per carry and score twice. New England’s team run defense grade (58.9) ranks 26th in the NFL.

Additional News:

Bills QB Josh Allen remains the MVP frontrunner with -900 odds.
Cold temperatures and potential snow are in the forecast.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)

Storyline: Race to the Bottom

This matchup has little intrigue outside of draft positioning, with the Raiders, Giants, and Jaguars all near the bottom of the standings.

Both teams are also without their Week 1 starting quarterbacks. The Jaguars continue with Mac Jones, while the Raiders turn back to Aidan O’Connell. Given the uncertainty at quarterback, it’s no surprise the Raiders are rumored to be eyeing top prospects for the 2025 NFL Draft.

Matchup to Watch: Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Raiders CB Decamerion Richardson

Thomas has become a favorite target for Mac Jones, seeing 34 targets over the last three games. He holds a 28.3% threat percentage and averages 2.23 yards per route run.

Richardson, a fourth-round rookie, has struggled in coverage. His 45.3 PFF coverage grade ranks 111th out of 113 qualifying cornerbacks, and he allows 9.3 yards per target.

Additional News:

Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. set franchise rookie records for receiving yards and touchdowns.
Tom Brady will play a significant role in selecting the Raiders’ next quarterback.
Raiders ED Maxx Crosby (ankle) to undergo season-ending surgery.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins (-1.5)

Storyline: Long Shot Playoff Odds

While neither team is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, both face do-or-die scenarios and slim postseason hopes. Expect an intense battle as they fight to keep their playoff dreams alive.

The 49ers have slipped to the bottom of a tightly contested NFC West after losing four of their last five games. Their 2-4 road record suggests the postseason is slipping away, with PFF’s simulation model giving them less than a 1% chance of making it.

Matchup to Watch: 49ers LB Dre Greenlaw vs. Dolphins RB De'Von Achane

Controversy surrounded the 49ers last week with De’Vondre Campbell’s discontent following Greenlaw’s return. Despite leaving the game as a precaution, Greenlaw excelled, earning an 87.6 overall grade on 30 snaps.

Greenlaw’s health will be tested against Achane, whose speed makes him a threat to score on any play. However, Achane has struggled recently, posting a 59.1 offensive grade over the last three games.

Additional News:

Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle (knee) avoided a major injury and is considered day-to-day.
49ers suspended LB De’Vondre Campbell for conduct detrimental to the team.
Dolphins WR Grant DuBose has been released from the hospital after a serious injury.
49ers LT Trent Williams (ankle) may miss the rest of the season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Storyline: Tampa Looks to Build on Newfound Momentum

The Buccaneers seized control of the NFC South from the Falcons and don’t seem eager to give it back. Their dominant Week 15 performance against the Chargers extended their win streak to four games.

The Cowboys remain mathematically alive and have played well, winning three of their last four games. They face a steep climb, but they continue to battle.

Matchup to Watch: Buccaneers WR Mike Evans vs. Cowboys CB DaRon Bland

Evans has been instrumental in Tampa Bay’s recent success. Since returning from a hamstring injury in Week 12, he boasts a 90.4 PFF receiving grade, the second-highest among receivers, with 12 explosive receptions and seven contested catches.

Bland’s return to the Cowboys’ lineup in Week 12 has also boosted their defense. He holds a 77.7 PFF coverage grade and has forced incompletions on 19.1% of targets.

Additional News:

Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs (knee) will undergo season-ending surgery.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield earned NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors for Week 15.

New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers (-13.5)

Storyline: Saints Somehow Still Alive in NFC

Though eliminated from wild-card contention, the Saints still have a slim shot at the NFC South title. To keep that hope alive, they must win out, starting with a tough matchup in Green Bay.

The Packers, meanwhile, can clinch a playoff berth with a win or tie. Sitting third in the NFC North, two games behind Minnesota and Detroit, Green Bay is likely headed for the No. 6 seed.

Matchup to Watch: Saints QB Spencer Rattler vs. Packers LB Edgerrin Cooper

This rookie showdown features Rattler trying to crack Cooper’s defensive prowess. The Saints benched Jake Haener in favor of Rattler last week, a move that nearly sparked a comeback after a disastrous first half.

Cooper, coming off a career-best 93.8 grade, has earned his second NFC Defensive Player of the Week award. His strong play could pose a major challenge for the Saints’ unsettled quarterback situation.

Additional News:

Saints signed former Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Packers first-round T Jordan Morgan (shoulder) is expected to miss the rest of the season.