NFL Week 16 Betting: Midweek market update

• Helping you understand market movement: This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

• A bet for Texans-Chiefs: I’m buying Kansas City at their floor price and locking in -2.5. Mahomes has shown he can play through this type of injury before. There’s also a chance Hollywood Brown makes his debut, though it’s more likely to happen on Christmas Day against the Steelers. If Mahomes suits up, this line should close at or above 3.

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Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

Welcome to PFF's weekly midweek market update.

This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

Injury, weather conditions and public pick releases can all affect line movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article.

Click here to jump to a game:

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	LAC -3	LAC -3	LAC -2.5
Total	42	42.5	42

Spread: The line moved off the key number of 3, making the Chargers a 2.5-point favorite. A few books still offer the Chargers at -3, but the market has largely settled below that number.

Total: The total has seen a slight dip, moving down to 42 from the opening 42.5. However, some 42.5s are still available.

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	KC -4	HOU -2.5	KC -2.5
Total	44.5	41	41.5

Spread: Wild swings in the spread are clearly tied to Patrick Mahomes’ ankle status ahead of this Saturday's matchup. After Week 15, head coach Andy Reid initially called Mahomes “day-to-day,” which later shifted to “week-to-week.” That uncertainty briefly made Houston a 3.5-point favorite on Monday. However, growing optimism about Mahomes’ availability has swung the line back in Kansas City’s favor, making them nearly a 3-point favorite. Most of the market is moving toward -3, though some 2.5s are still available.

Total: The uncertainty surrounding Mahomes has impacted the total, which dipped as low as 39.5 before rebounding to 42 on Tuesday afternoon. The market has largely settled at 41.5 across the board.

Buy/Sell: I’m buying Kansas City at their floor price and locking in -2.5. Mahomes has shown he can play through this type of injury before. There’s also a chance Hollywood Brown makes his debut, though it’s more likely to happen on Christmas Day against the Steelers. If Mahomes suits up, this line should close at or above 3.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	BAL -4	BAL -6.5	BAL -6.5
Total	46.5	46.5	44.5

Spread: The market is currently split between 6 and 6.5. It’s unlikely this line closes outside of those two numbers.

Total: A pick release on Monday morning brought the total down from the opening 46.5 to 45. That downward trend continued late Tuesday night, with the total dipping further to 44.5. Potential wind in the forecast may be contributing to this movement.

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	CIN -5.5	CIN -7	CIN -7.5
Total	49	49.5	47

Spread: Some books briefly dropped this line to 6.5 on Monday morning, but they’ve returned to 7, in line with the broader market. Now, the line has moved to 7.5 across the board.

Total: A pick release on an AFC North under brought the total down from 49.5 to 48. After holding there for 24 hours, it dipped again to 47. Cold temperatures are expected, but otherwise, the forecast appears favorable.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	PHI -2.5	PHI -3.5	PHI -3
Total	48.5	46	45.5

Spread: Most of the market has moved to Philadelphia as a juiced 3-point favorite. There are still some 3.5s available, but you'll need to pay extra juice to back Washington at that number.

Total: A slight adjustment has reduced the total by half a point to 45.5 for this divisional matchup. This figure is 3.5 points lower than their Week 11 meeting.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	DET -8	DET -7	DET -6.5
Total	46	46.5	48

Spread: A wave of injuries for the Lions has moved this line down from 7 to 6.5 across the board.

Total: The total opened at 46.5 but re-opened at 48 on Tuesday morning after the Bears’ Monday Night Football game. There hasn’t been much movement since.

Buy/Sell: Dan Campbell said in a press conference that injuries won’t be an excuse for his team. While that mindset can’t last forever, I don’t see it impacting this game. I’m taking the Lions at -6.5.

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	AZ -3.5	AZ -4	AZ -4.5
Total	46	46.5	47

Spread: This line has moved up half a point to 4.5 from the opener. Some 4s are still available, and if you search, you can even find a few off-market 3.5s.

Total: The market saw support for the over after opening at 46.5, pushing the total up to 48. However, resistance brought it back down to 47.

Situational Factors: The Panthers have a slight travel advantage in this matchup.

New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	ATL -8.5	ATL -10	ATL -8.5
Total	41.5	42.5	40.5

Spread: The market was already leaning toward New York before Tuesday evening's announcement that Kirk Cousins would be benched for Michael Penix Jr. By then, the line had moved to 9, and the change at quarterback resulted in a half-point adjustment. Most books now have the spread at 8.5, though you can still find numbers ranging from 8 to 9.

Total: The total was sitting between 41 and 41.5 before the news about Cousins. After the announcement, the line dropped to 40.5 across the board.

Buy/Sell: As noted in prior weeks, we were waiting for Cousins to be benched to target a live over. I believe the market overreacted, so I’m locking in the over at 40.5. Penix has shown a willingness to push the ball downfield, and if the Falcons can replicate even part of their success against the Raiders, they should create short-field opportunities.

Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	LAR -2.5	LA -3	LA -3
Total	46.5	47	46.5

Spread: The line has remained steady between 3 and 3.5, with the market still split.

Total: The only movement has been a slight half-point drop to 46.5.

Situational Factors: This is another case where a team coming off Thursday Night Football has extra rest before traveling across the country.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	IND -4	IND -4.5	IND -3.5
Total	42	43	42.5

Spread: A quarterback change in Tennessee has moved this line down a full point to 3.5, with the market viewing Mason Rudolph as an upgrade over Will Levis. We haven’t seen the line drop to 3 yet, but if it does, expect support for the Colts.

Total: A slight adjustment has brought the total down to 42.5, though some 43s are still available.

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	MIN -2.5	MIN -4	MIN -3
Total	45.5	42	42

Spread: Early money on the Seahawks brought this line down to the key number of 3. It briefly touched 2.5, but that didn’t last long before being corrected.

Total: The total dropped from the lookahead number, largely due to Geno Smith’s knee injury on Sunday. While initial reports were positive, the market hasn’t moved significantly from the opening figure.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	BUF -11.5	BUF -14	BUF -14
Total	46.5	44.5	46.5

Spread: The line briefly tested -13.5 before returning to 14, with a few books even posting 14.5.

Total: A pick release on the over pushed the total from 45 to as high as 47.5 before settling back down at 46.5. The number continues to dip slightly, with some books now at 46.

Buy/Sell: I’m backing the initial move and locking in the over 46 at -112. There’s a real chance the Bills get there on their own. A quick glance at the MVP market shows Josh Allen is playing at an elite level right now. The Bills haven’t scored fewer than 30 points since Week 6, with Weeks 4 and 5 being the only other times they fell short this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Las Vegas Raiders

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	LV -1.5	LV -1	PK
Total	39.5	40	39.5

Spread: This spread has bounced back and forth between Jaguars -1 and a pick’em. Depending on the book, you can find either team listed as a slight underdog.

Total: The total hasn’t moved significantly, with just a slight adjustment down to 39.5.

Buy/Sell: I’ll sell the Jaguars’ movement and buy into the Raiders at pick’em. While 10 consecutive losses don’t inspire confidence, Aidan O’Connell is trending toward playing. The market's reaction seems influenced by the Raiders’ Monday Night Football performance, led by Desmond Ridder.

Situational Factors: The Jaguars face a challenging cross-country trip.

San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	MIA -1	MIA -2.5	PK
Total	48	46.5	44.5

Spread: Momentum on the 49ers has shifted this line to a pick’em. Some books still list Miami as a 1 to 1.5-point favorite. As mentioned previously, this range of numbers doesn’t hold significant value in the betting market.

Total: The total has gradually decreased to 44.5 over the week. It hasn’t dipped below that mark yet.

Situational Factors: The 49ers have an edge with extra rest from playing on Thursday Night Football, though that advantage is somewhat offset by the cross-country trip to Miami.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	TB -4	TB -4	TB -3.5
Total	47	47.5	48

Spread: The initial move saw the spread drop from 4 to 3.5. The market remains split between these two numbers, and it’s unlikely this line will move down to 3.

Total: Early action on the over pushed the total as high as 49.5 before it settled back at 48. There are still several 48.5s available.

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	GB -13	GB -13	GB -14.5
Total	41.5	43	42.5

Spread: Ongoing quarterback issues for the Saints have the Packers as favorites, ranging between 14 and 14.5 points. It’s that time of year when larger spreads become more common. However, a few market-making books still list this at 13.5.

Total: While the opener was higher than the look-ahead line, there has been consistent support for the under. The total has dropped to 42.5, with several books now at 42 and some even as low as 41.5.