NFL Week 15 Betting: Midweek market update

• Helping you understand market movement: This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

• A bet for Chiefs-Browns: Sell the Browns support and buy the Chiefs at -4, which may be their floor price.

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Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

Welcome to PFF's weekly midweek market update.

This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

Injury, weather conditions and public pick releases can all affect line movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article.

Click here to jump to a game:

L os Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	SF -3	SF -2	SF -2.5
Total	47	48.5	49.5

Spread: After opening up a point beneath the lookahead line of 3, a pick release Monday afternoon pushed this to 2.5, which is currently the number across the board. I don’t anticipate this getting to 3.

Total: The total here pushed up one point to 49.5, but we did see some resistance at that number, with a handful of books dropping back to 49. The market is split now between 49 and 49.5.

Washington Commanders @ New Orleans Saints

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	WAS -3	WAS -6.5	WAS -7
Total	49	44	43

Spread: With the news of Derek Carr’s hand fracture, this number opened 3.5 points higher than the lookahead line. Within a minute of opening at 6.5, the spread pushed out to 7 and to 7.5 shortly after before hitting some resistance. You’ll need to lay additional juice for a 7 at the time being.

Total: After opening five points below the lookahead, this pushed down an additional point to 43. You can still find some 43.5s out there.

Situational Factors: Advantage Commanders coming off of their bye week.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the movement on Washington. Coming off of a bye against an injury riddled Saints team, I’ll lock in -7 at -115. At -7.5, I’ll also incorporate Washington as a teaser leg.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	KC -6	KC -6	KC -4
Total	44.5	42.5	45

Spread: The market is reacting to yet another one-score win for the Chiefs, as this has been pushed down to 4 from the opening number of 6. This feels like the low point, and I doubt we see any 3.5s.

Total: There was initial support on the over before a pick release propelled it up to as high as 46. From there, it’s come down and settled in at 45.

Buy/Sell: I’ll sell the Browns support and buy the Chiefs at -4, which I believe to be their floor price.

Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	BAL -12.5	BAL -13.5	BAL -15
Total	44.5	43	43

Spread: It’s been one-way action on the Ravens taking this spread all the way to 15. There are still plenty of 14.5s out there, although you aren’t capturing much value with that number. This is the first game this year with a spread beyond two touchdowns.

Total: This total reached 43.5 before settling back at 43. Still, a couple of 43.5s remain.

Situational Factors: The Ravens are coming off of their bye week.

New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	NYJ -3.5	NYJ -3	NYJ -3
Total	40.5	40.5	40.5

Spread: There’s been some support early in the week on the Jets in this matchup, moving this line out to 3.5 at some books. We’ve yet to see it get any higher than that. It’ll be Mac Jones once again after Trevor Lawrence landed on IR.

Total: On Sunday night, we saw this line dip as low as 39.5 before popping back up to the opening 40.5. There are still some 40s out there.

Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	HOU -2.5	HOU -1.5	HOU -2.5
Total	46.5	46.5	47

Spread: Shortly after opening, the initial move here was from 1.5 to 2.5. A pick release on the Texans took them out to 3 before it settled at a juiced -2.5. You’ll need to lay more to get either side of this key number with the market split between 2.5 and 3.

Total: There was a slight tick up to 47 from the opening 46.5. There is not much else to report here.

Situational Factors: Advantage Texans coming off of their bye week.

Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	DAL -1.5	CAR -1	CAR -2.5
Total	44	42.5	43

Spread: Flipped favorite from the lookahead line, and that support has continued for Carolina, pushing this line to nearly a field goal. It remains to be seen if we see a 3 pop up, but if it does, I don’t believe it will last long.

Total: There is some disagreement in the market about where this total should be, as it currently ranges between 42.5 and 43.5.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	CIN -3.5	CIN -4	CIN -5
Total	49	47	46.5

Spread: This spread got out to -5 before Monday Night Football and re-opened at that number after the Bengals squeaked out a win in Dallas. Tennessee was on the flip side of that equation with a late loss to Jacksonville after leading for 48 of the first 54 minutes of the game. This number should remain in this dead zone up until kickoff.

Total: Despite an eruption game from Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, this total has slid down a half-point to 46.5 after the Bengals and Titans both went under their game totals last week. We were on the under in the Bengals-Cowboys game last week with an inflated total, but with this one three points beneath the lookahead, the market looks to have corrected itself.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Chargers

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	LAC -3	LAC -3.5	LAC -3
Total	46.5	45	45.5

Spread: This line has moved down a half-point to 3 in favor of the Bucs. There are a couple of 2.5s out there, but they’re heavily juiced on Los Angeles. I believe this ultimately closes at 3.

Total: The total opened 45 and has only risen a half-point to 45.5 as things currently stand.

Buy/Sell: I’m fading this move on the Bucs and buying the Chargers at -3. There are some -2.5s out there, but it’s not widely available. If you can get better than -124, I prefer the -2.5 rather than a -3 at -105.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	PHI -4.5	PHI -4	PHI -5
Total	45.5	44	42

Spread: After opening at 4, the Eagles reached as high as 5.5, but the market has since returned to 5. We’re seeing some 4.5s surface now and even a couple of 4s at prominent books.

Total: A low-scoring affair is potentially on the docket as we’ve seen this total drop two points after opening nearly two points below the lookahead. Keep an eye on the weather radar here, as rain is on the forecast.

Buy/Sell: Another buying opportunity on the Steelers catching more points than they should be. I’m locking in the +5 and banking on the Steelers’ pass rush disrupting Jalen Hurts, who has been prone to struggle against pressure. I’ll be looking for alternate lines on the Steelers as well.

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	DEN -3.5	DEN -5.5	DEN -4
Total	43.5	42.5	44

Spread: There has been plenty of support on the Colts, with a pick release being the main driver behind the move from 5.5 to as low as 3.5. I expect some of those last 3.5s to turn into 4s sooner rather than later.

Total: The total has jumped past the lookahead number of 43.5 to as high as 45. That high water mark didn’t last long, and the market is currently split between 44 and 44.5.

New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	AZ -7	AZ -6	AZ -5.5
Total	45.5	44	46

Spread: We’ve seen this spread all over the place, getting as low as 4 before jumping back up 1.5 points to the current number of 5.5. We’ll see how the Patriots come out of their bye week given that Jerod Mayo is potentially coaching for his job.

Total: At the opening number, I liked the over 44. But with a two-point move up to 46 early in the week, it’s a pass for me now.

Situational Factors: Advantage Patriots coming off of their bye week.

Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	DET -2.5	DET -2	DET -2
Total	51.5	52.5	54.5

Spread: The first move here was Detroit to 2.5, but most books have returned to the opening number of 2. This should be the closing number.

Total: Steady movement on the over has pushed this up to 55. At that point, we saw some support for the under, as it ticked back down to 54.5 across the board.

Situational Factors: There is a slight rest advantage for the Lions having played on Thursday Night Football.

Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	GB -3	GB -2	GB -3
Total	46.5	46	46.5

Spread: This is a significant move here, as we’ve seen the Packers move out to a field-goal favorite on the road. There are still some 2.5s with extra juice, but the market is leaning closer to 3.

Total: The first move here was a jump up to 47 before slipping back down to 46.5.

Ch icago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	MIN -6	MIN -6.5	MIN -7
Total	42.5	43	43.5

Spread: After opening a half-point higher than the lookahead, the Vikings moved out to 7 pretty quickly. There was some initial buyback on the Bears at that number, dropping the line back to the opener of 6.5, but it has since returned to 7. It's a good indication that it’ll close somewhere between those two numbers.

Total: There’s been some upward movement here, but not a ton. The market is currently split between 43.5 and 44.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Las Vegas Raiders

	Lookahead	Opener	Current Line
Spread	ATL -3.5	ATL -4	ATL -5
Total	45	43	44

Spread: After opening at 4, this line jumped to 5, with quite a few books still at 4.5. This game should close in this neighborhood, and I don’t expect much more movement one way or the other.

Total: It’s been a slow yet steady climb on this total, as it creeps back toward the lookahead number of 45. A few books have gone to 44.5, and we’ve yet to see much resistance at that number.