The 2021 NFL season is roughly three-quarters old, and with that comes increased attention to the postseason.
The shape of the 2021 playoff bracket hinges heavily on what we see during the Week 14 slate, so we at PFF want to go through the different scenarios and how they affect your favorite team.
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Thursday Night Football
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3)
Current playoff odds: MIN 20%, PIT 14%
With PIT win: MIN 11%, PIT 22%
With MIN win: MIN 29%, PIT 6%
Neither team is eliminated with a loss tonight, but both teams likely view this game as a must-win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Despite an embarrassing loss to the Lions last week, the Vikings are favored in this one.
Click here for our best bets on the game.
Sunday 1pm Slate
DALLAS COWBOYS @ WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (+4)
Current playoff odds: DAL 98%, WAS 55%
With DAL win: DAL >99%, WAS 40%
With WAS win: DAL 95%, WAS 72%
Current division title odds: DAL 81%, WAS 16%
With DAL win: DAL 95%, WAS 3%
With WAS win: DAL 63%, WAS 31%
Washington was the sexy preseason underdog to win a division, and their odds went from +400 to around +150 before the season opener. After starting 2-6 and being left for dead, they are now back in it and have an almost a one-in-three chance to make their bettors happy with a win. This line opened at WAS +5, but bettors have liked the Football Team so far.
Click here for our best bets on the game.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
Current playoff odds: BAL 73%, CLE 28%
With BAL win: BAL 92%, CLE 9%
With CLE win: BAL 60%, CLE 42%
Current division title odds: BAL 47%, CLE 16%
With BAL win: BAL 71%, CLE <1%
With CLE win: BAL 32%, CLE 26%
This is actually the second straight game Cleveland will play Baltimore, having lost to them 16-10 before their Week 13 bye. However, due to a slew of injuries to the Ravens, culminating with star cornerback Marlon Humphrey tearing a pec muscle near the end of the Pittsburgh game, the Browns are actually favored in this one and would almost double their chances to win their first-ever AFC North title with a Week 14 win.
Click here for our best bets on the game.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-9.5)
Current playoff odds: KC 92%, LV 18%
With LV win: KC 79%, LV 13%
With KC win: KC 96%, LV 40%
Current division title odds: KC 71%, LV 2%
With LV win: KC 51%, LV 8%
With KC win: KC 79%, LV <1%
The Raiders haven’t won the AFC West since 2002, while the Chiefs have won the division each season since 2016. Kansas City blew out Las Vegas earlier this season as 2.5-point favorites and are now laying almost double digits in their effort to put distance between them and the rest of the division.
Click here for our best bets on the game.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennesee Titans (-9)
Current playoff odds: TEN 97%
With TEN win: TEN 99%
With JAX win: TEN 93%
Current divisional title odds: TEN 95%
With TEN win: TEN 98%
With JAX win: TEN 89%
Tennessee, holding on for dear life since the injuries to A.J. Brown, Julio Jones and Derrick Henry, come out of their bye week with the league’s easiest schedule from here on out. Getting to play the Jags twice helps matters. For the Titans, the path out of the playoffs is largely the same as losing the AFC South to the Colts, but such sample paths are rare.
Click here for our best bets on the game.
ATLANTA FALCONS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS (-2.5)
Current playoff odds: ATL 13% CAR 4%
With ATL win: ATL 21% CAR 1%
With CAR win: ATL 4% CAR 8%
The Panthers beat the Falcons in Week 8 but are actually underdogs to them to make the playoffs. That flips with a Carolina win Sunday, and they are 2.5-point favorites in their matchup.
Click here for our best bets on the game.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ HOUSTON TEXANS (+7.5)
Current playoff odds: SEA 3%
With SEA win: SEA 5%
With SEA loss: SEA < 1%
Seattle kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a victory over the 49ers last week. They are the first team since the 70s to have a record this bad but be road favorites by over a touchdown, which gives you an idea as to why the Texans are already eliminated.
Click here for our best bets on the game.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ NEW YORK JETS (+5)
Current playoffs: NO 17%
With NO win: NO 23%
With NYJ win: NO 7%
A month ago, the New Orleans Saints were in a commanding spot for the sixth seed in the NFC, let alone a measly playoff spot. Five straight losses later, they are on the outside looking in. Without competent quarterback play, it’s hard to see them playing well into January, but as five-point favorites against the Jets, the chance will likely be prolonged.
Click here for our best bets on the game.
Sunday 4 pm Slate
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (-1)
Current playoffs: SF 63%, CIN 52%
With SF win: SF 78%, CIN 37%
With CIN win: SF 47%, CIN 68%
Current division title odds: CIN 32%
With SF win: CIN 20%
With CIN win: CIN 44%
The door is very much open for these teams to make the playoffs, but a loss takes each team from a favorite to make the tournament to an underdog, so this is the 4 pm game with the biggest leverage. It also helps that this game is basically a pick’em. Ironically, this is the same spread these teams garnered in Week 2 of 2019, after which the teams went in dramatically different directions. Additionally, with the Ravens reeling with injuries, the Bengals are still in the hunt to win their first division title since 2015.
Click here for our best bets on the game.
BUFFALO BILLS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3)
Current playoffs: TB > 99%, BUF 77%
With BUF win: TB > 99%, BUF 92%
With TB win: TB > 99%, BUF 67%
Current division title odds: TB > 99%, BUF 34%
With BUF win: TB > 99%, BUF 44%
With TB win: TB > 99%, BUF 25%
This game is less of a leverage game for Tampa Bay than for Buffalo, and more of a marquee game in general than it is a leverage game, given Buffalo’s loss on Monday night to the Patriots at home. The Buccaneers are currently our favorites to win the Super Bowl at 17%, making a bet at +550 (available at DraftKings Sportsbook) a +EV play.
Click here for our best bets on the game.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-10.5)
Current playoffs odds: LAC 66%, NYG 3%
With NYG win: LAC 45%, NYG 7%
With LAC win: LAC 75%, NYG < 1%
Current division title odds: LAC 23%
With NYG win: LAC 28%
With LAC win: LAC 11%
The Chargers have been up and down all year, to this point squandering a season in which the Chiefs have been less than stellar. They get Jake Fromm this week, though, and as such are the league’s second-biggest favorites in Week 14. Will they look ahead to next Thursday against the Chiefs, or will they take care of business?
Click here for our best bets on the game.
DETROIT LIONS @ DENVER BRONCOS (-7.5)
Current playoff odds: DEN 18%
With DET win: DEN 7%
With DEN win: DEN 21%
Current division title odds: DEN 3%
With DET win: DEN < 1%
With DEN win: DEN 4%
Last week, the Broncos showed that they are still a decent way away from competing in the AFC West, but they still have a shot at making the playoffs. While Detroit won their first game last week and are 8-4 against the spread this year, Denver is a clear favorite to get to their seventh win and ever closer to the over for their season-long win total of 8.5.
Click here for our best bets on the game.
Sunday Night Football
CHICAGO BEARS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-12.5)
Current playoff odds: GB > 99%, CHI 2%
With CHI win: GB > 99%, CHI 9%
With GB win: GB > 99%, CHI < 1%
Green Bay has all but locked up the division title, and Chicago would really need a miracle to make the playoffs, so this choice for Sunday Night Football is interesting, to say the least. However, there is still some uncertainty with regard to the one seed, for which the Packers have a 29% chance. With a win Sunday night against the Bears and a loss by the Cardinals on Monday, this jumps to 49%.
Click here for our best bets on the game.
Monday Night Football
LOS ANGELES RAMS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (-3)
Current playoff odds: ARZ >99%, LA 95%
With LA win: ARZ > 99%, LA 98%
With ARZ win: ARZ > 99%, LA 89%
Current division title odds: ARZ 95%, LA 5%
With LA win: ARZ 87%, LA 13%
With ARZ win: ARZ > 99%, LA < 1%
The Cardinals are sitting pretty, as they have the tiebreaker over LA even in the event of a loss against the Rams. With a win at home Monday night against the Rams, they would almost be assured of their first division title since 2015. Additionally, the Cardinals' one-seed chances increase to 53% with a win Monday, even with a Green Bay win on Sunday night against the Bears.
Click here for our best bets on the game.
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