• The Buccaneers need a Week 14 win: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a 52% chance of making the playoffs with a Week 14 win against the Atlanta Falcons, but their chances will fall to just 8% with a loss.
• The Ravens are out in front in a loaded AFC: The Baltimore Ravens have a 40% chance of locking up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, according to PFF's model.
• Dig into the numbers for yourself: PFF's Premium Stats is the most in-depth collection of NFL and NCAA player performance data. Subscribe today to get full access!
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
The current situation ahead of Week 14
Current AFC playoff standings
- Miami Dolphins (9-3)
- Baltimore Ravens (9-3)
- Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)
- Cleveland Browns (7-5)
- Indianapolis Colts (7-5)
Current NFC playoff standings
- Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)
- San Francisco 49ers (9-3)
- Detroit Lions (9-3)
- Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
- Dallas Cowboys (9-3)
- Minnesota Vikings (6-6)
- Green Bay Packers (6-6)
If these standings held up, we would welcome three new AFC teams (Steelers, Browns and Colts) as well as three new NFC teams (Lions, Falcons and Packers) to the playoffs.
The projections
Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.
The following charts show the projected playoff chances for each team alongside the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or loss.
The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.
AFC PLAYOFF CHANCES
NFC PLAYOFF CHANCES
TEAMS WITH THE MOST AT STAKE IN WEEK 14
| Team | Chances with win | Chances with loss | Leverage |
| Atlanta Falcons | 84% | 34% | 50% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 52% | 8% | 44% |
| Cleveland Browns | 79% | 39% | 40% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 59% | 22% | 37% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 81% | 44% | 37% |
| Houston Texans | 73% | 40% | 33% |
Playoff scenarios
Home-field advantage
Teams that hold the No. 1 seed in the conference have a huge advantage going into the playoffs. Here are the most likely teams to do that.
| AFC | % | NFC | % |
| Baltimore Ravens | 40% | Philadelphia Eagles | 55% |
| Miami Dolphins | 27% | San Francisco 49ers | 34% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 22% | Dallas Cowboys | 7% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 9% | Detroit Lions | 4% |
Two wild cards for the same division
With the introduction of the seventh playoff seed, we've become accustomed to seeing three playoff teams from the same division. This has happened every year since 2020, when the playoffs were extended.
Here are the chances for each division to pull it off:
| AFC | NFC | |
| North | 41% | 31% |
| East | 0% | 2% |
| South | 24% | 0% |
| West | 0% | 3% |
Looking ahead to draft season
There are a few teams whose playoff chances are already bleak. But don’t fret — there is always the offseason and, most importantly, the draft.
The following teams have the biggest chance of picking first overall:
- Chicago Bears (via Panthers): 74%
- New England Patriots: 21%
- Arizona Cardinals (own pick): 4%
Here are the chances of selecting inside the top five:
- Chicago Bears (via Panthers): 99%
- New England Patriots: 95%
- Arizona Cardinals (own pick): 87%
- Washington Commanders: 63%
- New York Giants: 43%
- Chicago Bears (own pick): 32%
- New York Jets: 25%
- Tennessee Titans: 24%
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.