• AFC North battle with playoff implications: The Bengals find themselves in a must-win situation coming out of their Week 12 bye, fighting to stay alive in the crowded AFC playoff picture. Currently holding just an 11% chance to make the postseason per PFF’s model, Cincinnati’s hopes would likely vanish with a loss in this critical matchup against the Steelers.
• Washington’s playoff hopes in question: After a hot start to the season, the Commanders are faltering, having lost three straight games. Meanwhile, the Titans are coming off their best performance of the season, putting up 32 points—only their second game eclipsing 21 points this year. Powered by a strong ground game and a solid defensive effort, Tennessee found success by limiting the responsibilities placed on rookie quarterback Will Levis. This formula could be key if the Titans are to build momentum moving forward.
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Estimated reading time: 15 minutes
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TEN@WAS | LAC@ATL | PIT@CIN | HOU@JAX | ARI@MIN
IND@NE | SEA@NYJ | TB@CAR | LAR@NO | PHI@BAL | SF@BUF | CLE@DEN
Los Angeles Chargers (-1) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Storyline of the Game: Rested Falcons Aim to Reverse Course
Fresh off their Week 12 bye, the Falcons are rested and eager to end a two-game losing streak, including a humbling 32-point defeat to the Broncos. The slide threatens their hold on the NFC South, where they maintain a slim lead over Tampa Bay. Atlanta faces a tough road ahead, starting with a matchup against the Chargers, who are looking to rebound after a lackluster showing in the Harbaugh Bowl on Monday night. Justin Herbert and the Chargers‘ offense struggled to find the end zone, a stark contrast to their previous four games, where they ranked top five in offensive points scored (84).
Matchups to Watch: Falcons QB Kirk Cousins vs. Chargers‘ Play-Action Defense
Expect the Falcons to lean into their play-action passing game after head coach Raheem Morris voiced his commitment to utilizing it more. Atlanta has shockingly ranked last in play-action dropbacks (54) this season, despite Kirk Cousins’ history of success in such schemes. Over the last three seasons, Cousins ranks in the 89th percentile in play-action passing grade.
The Chargers’ defense, however, presents an interesting challenge. While they allow an open target on 74.0% of play-action passes—the third-highest rate in the league—they excel at rallying to the ball. Their 25 coverage stops on play-action plays are tied for the most in the NFL.
Additional News
- Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins (knee) is expected to miss this week.
- Falcons K Younghoe Koo (hip) is listed as questionable for Sunday.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Storyline of the Game: AFC North Battle with Playoff Implications
The Bengals find themselves in a must-win situation coming out of their Week 12 bye, fighting to stay alive in the crowded AFC playoff picture. Currently holding just an 11% chance to make the postseason per PFF’s model, Cincinnati’s hopes would likely vanish with a loss in this critical matchup.
Standing in their way is a Steelers team eager to bounce back after a stunning upset loss to the Browns in last week’s “Snow Globe” game. With messy conditions and a grueling schedule ahead, Mike Tomlin’s squad will look to regroup and capitalize on this key divisional clash.
Matchups to Watch: Steelers ED T.J. Watt vs. Bengals RT Amarius Mims
T.J. Watt, one of the NFL's elite pass rushers, has seen a slight dip in his production over the past few weeks. His 13.1% pass-rush win rate since Week 10 ranks just 41st among qualifying edge defenders, with nine pressures and one sack during that span.
This week presents an opportunity for Watt to regain his dominant form against Bengals rookie right tackle Amarius Mims. The first-year lineman has struggled mightily in pass protection, earning a 58.5 PFF pass-blocking grade, which ranks 59th out of 75 qualifying tackles. Mims has also allowed the third-most pressures (12) at the position since Week 10, despite playing one fewer game than most.
Additional News
- Bengals LT Orlando Brown Jr. (fibula): After missing three games, Brown logged full practices late in the week and could return to action this Sunday.
- Steelers ED Alex Highsmith (ankle): Highsmith returned to practice on a limited basis but remains doubtful to play this week.
Houston Texans (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Storyline of the Game: Can Houston Bounce Back from Tough Stretch?
The Texans have hit a rough patch, going 2-4 since Week 7, and are coming off one of their most disappointing performances of the season. In Week 12, Houston surrendered a season-high 32 points at home in a divisional loss to the Titans, falling 32-27.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars enter this matchup refreshed off their Week 12 bye and with encouraging news: head coach Doug Pederson expects quarterback Trevor Lawrence to return after missing time since Week 10. Jacksonville will aim to replicate Tennessee’s offensive success and deal Houston its second consecutive AFC South loss.
With a much-needed bye not arriving until Week 14, the Texans are left to regroup on the fly. Can the rested Jaguars take advantage of Houston’s recent struggles?
Matchups to Watch: Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence vs. Texans S Jimmie Ward
Trevor Lawrence’s absence has been glaring for the Jaguars. Over the past two weeks without him, Jacksonville’s offense ranked last in both overall offensive grade (58.2) and EPA per play. Lawrence had been playing at a high level before his injury, earning a 76.9 PFF passing grade — 11th among qualifying quarterbacks. His return could provide a much-needed boost to a sputtering offense.
The Texans‘ secondary, however, has been lights out lately. Over the last three weeks, Houston leads the NFL in EPA per pass allowed and has racked up seven interceptions. Veteran safety Jimmie Ward has been key to this success, recording two interceptions during that span, including a pick-six in Week 12 that helped him earn a season-best 89.9 PFF coverage grade.
Additional News
- Texans ED Will Anderson Jr.: Named NFL Global Flag Football Ambassador.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Storyline of the Game: Arizona’s Momentum Comes to a Halt
The Cardinals entered their Week 11 bye riding high on a four-game winning streak but stumbled out of the break with a lackluster performance in Seattle. Arizona’s offense struggled mightily, managing just six points and 5.0 yards per play, putting their surging playoff aspirations in jeopardy.
The Vikings, meanwhile, remain one of the NFC's strongest teams after sweeping through November with three road wins, including a dramatic overtime victory in Chicago. However, their inability to close games could be cause for concern. Minnesota nearly blew an 11-point lead in the final two minutes against the Bears, a trend that could prove costly in tighter contests down the stretch.
Matchups to Watch: Vikings RG Dalton Risner vs. Cardinals DI Darius Robinson
Arizona’s first-round rookie, Darius Robinson, is expected to make his season debut after logging three straight limited practices this week. The former Missouri standout earned an impressive 84.0 overall defensive grade in 2023, excelling as both a run defender and pass-rusher. His return could provide a major boost to the Cardinals’ defensive front.
Opposing Robinson will be Vikings right guard Dalton Risner, who is also returning from injury. Risner has struggled since rejoining the lineup in Week 11, producing a lackluster 49.7 overall offensive grade. With subpar marks in both run blocking and pass protection, Risner will need to step up to prevent Robinson from wreaking havoc in the trenches.
Additional News
- Minnesota Vikings: Signed QB Daniel Jones following his release from the New York Giants, adding veteran depth behind Kirk Cousins.
- Arizona Cardinals: S Jalen Thompson (ankle) and DI Darius Robinson (calf) are questionable for Sunday after limited participation in practice this week.
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) vs. New England Patriots
Storyline of the Game: Struggles Continue for Both the Colts and Patriots
November proved to be a challenging month for both the Colts and Patriots, as each team limped to a 1-3 record. Both franchises are now eager to turn the page and begin December with a win before heading into their Week 14 byes.
The parallels don’t stop there. Week 12 was particularly rough for both teams, with the Colts mustering just six points in a blowout loss to Detroit. Anthony Richardson struggled, recording a 56.5% adjusted completion percentage and two turnover-worthy plays. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ offense only managed 15 points – seven of which came on a defensive touchdown – while their defense allowed four passing touchdowns to Miami.
Matchups to Watch: Colts LT Bernhard Raimann vs. Patriots ED Keion White
The Colts will receive a significant boost with the return of left tackle Bernhard Raimann, who has missed time over the past four games due to injuries. Raimann has been one of the league’s top pass protectors, earning an 84.7 pass-blocking grade, good for eighth-best at the position. He’s proven remarkably consistent, producing an 80.0-plus pass-blocking grade in five of his eight games this season.
Raimann’s return is especially timely with right tackle Braden Smith unavailable, as he’ll face off against talented Patriots edge defender Keion White. White boasts an 82.1 PFF pass-rush grade but has struggled recently, managing just three pressures over his last two games. He’ll look to test Raimann’s readiness in a critical trench battle.
Additional News
- New England Patriots: S Jabrill Peppers has been cleared to practice and play after being removed from the Commissioner’s exempt list.
- Indianapolis Colts: RT Braden Smith (personal) and WR Josh Downs (shoulder) are ruled out for this week.
Seattle Seahawks (-0.5) vs. New York Jets
Storyline of the Game: Seattle Looking to Gain Distance in NFC West
The Seahawks entered their Week 10 bye in a slump, dropping five of six games, but have since bounced back with two straight wins to close out November. Seattle’s resurgence has been powered by a stifling defense that allowed zero touchdowns in their Week 12 shutout of Arizona. A key highlight was Coby Bryant’s game-changing 69-yard pick-six, showcasing the defense’s playmaking ability.
Meanwhile, the Jets look to shake off a crushing pre-bye loss to the Colts. Despite another sluggish start that saw New York fail to score in the first quarter, they managed to hold a lead late before surrendering a game-winning touchdown in the final minute. The Jets desperately need to find answers to salvage what’s left of their season.
Matchups to Watch: Jets LB C.J. Mosley vs. Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III
C.J. Mosley could make his long-awaited return this week after being limited to just four games this season due to injuries. When healthy, Mosley has been a force against the run, earning an 81.6 PFF run-defense grade. His presence could provide much-needed stability to a Jets defense that has struggled to contain opposing ground attacks.
Mosley’s return comes just in time for a matchup against Kenneth Walker III, the NFL’s highest-graded rusher (91.5). Walker has been a nightmare for defenses, forcing a league-leading 0.41 missed tackles per attempt. His ability to generate yards after contact will put significant pressure on Mosley and the Jets’ front seven to perform at a high level.
Additional News
- Jets: The team has begun the search for a new general manager and head coach following the firing of GM Joe Douglas last week.
- Aaron Rodgers: Reports suggest that both Jets owner Woody Johnson and Aaron Rodgers are considering a split in 2025, though Rodgers has denied the claims.
- Seahawks: WRs Tyler Lockett (knee) and DK Metcalf (shoulder) returned to practice Friday after missing earlier sessions in the week.
Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Commanders (-6)
Storyline of the Game: Washington’s Playoff Hopes in Question
After a hot start to the season, the Commanders are faltering, losing three straight games and jeopardizing their playoff chances. Last week’s loss was especially crushing, with Washington’s special teams unit surrendering two touchdowns, including a game-sealing onside kick recovery that dashed their comeback hopes.
Meanwhile, the Titans are coming off their best performance of the season, putting up 32 points—only their second game eclipsing 21 points this year. Powered by a strong ground game and a solid defensive effort, Tennessee found success by limiting the responsibilities placed on rookie quarterback Will Levis. This formula could be key if the Titans are to build momentum moving forward.
Matchups to Watch: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels vs. Titans Secondary
Jayden Daniels has built a compelling case for Offensive Rookie of the Year, though his recent performances have drawn some criticism. Despite throwing two interceptions last week, neither was deemed a turnover-worthy play per PFF standards. However, Daniels will need to avoid overextending himself against a Titans defense that has been opportunistic of late.
Tennessee’s defense might not boast gaudy season-long turnover numbers (just eight forced), but six of those have come over the last four games. If Daniels isn’t careful, Tennessee’s surging secondary could take advantage and shift the game’s momentum.
Additional News:
- Commanders: CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) remains doubtful despite three consecutive limited practices, though reports suggest he’s nearing a return.
- Titans: S Daryl Worley has been promoted from the practice squad ahead of Sunday’s matchup.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
Storyline of the Game: Revamped NFC South Rivals Collide
November's biggest surprise has been the resurgence of the Panthers, fueled by Bryce Young‘s improved play. Carolina went 2-1 over its last three games, narrowly missing out on perfection due to a last-minute loss to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers returned from their Week 11 bye refreshed and refocused, kicking things off with a commanding road victory. The return of Mike Evans, combined with the emergence of Bucky Irving – who posted a career-best 90.5 receiving grade in Week 12 – creates a potent offensive pairing. As Tampa Bay looks to climb to the top of the NFC South, their dynamic offense looms as a significant challenge for opposing defenses.
Matchups to Watch: Panthers QB Bryce Young vs. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield
This duel of former No. 1 overall picks takes center stage after standout performances from both quarterbacks in Week 12.
Bryce Young delivered the best game of his young career, earning an 83.9 PFF grade against a formidable Kansas City defense. His outing included five big-time throws and just one turnover-worthy play, while his 14.3% big-time throw rate was the highest among quarterbacks last week.
Not to be outdone, Baker Mayfield shined in Week 12, earning a league-best 91.0 passing grade – his highest since 2020. The Bucs signal-caller averaged 9.8 yards per attempt and posted an impressive 86.7% adjusted completion rate, spreading the ball to 11 different targets.
Additional News:
- Panthers: TE Ja’Tavion Sanders (neck) was released from the hospital but remains under evaluation by team medical staff.
- Buccaneers: S Jordan Whitehead (pectoral) has been placed on injured reserve.
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
Storyline of the Game: The Saints Aren’t Dead Yet
Since Darren Rizzi took over as interim head coach, the Saints have shown signs of life, boasting an undefeated record under his leadership. Coming off their Week 12 bye, New Orleans will look to keep that momentum rolling as they attempt to close the two-game gap in the NFC South standings.
For the Rams, consistency has been hard to come by, but the NFC West remains wide open, with every team separated by just one win. To stay in the hunt, they’ll need to rebound from a tough 37-20 primetime loss to Philadelphia last week.
Matchups to Watch: Saints C Shane Lemieux vs. Rams DI Kobie Turner
With Erik McCoy listed as questionable after re-aggravating a groin injury, Shane Lemieux could make another start at center for New Orleans. Unfortunately for the Saints, Lemieux has struggled mightily in limited action, owning a sub-60.0 run-blocking grade and an alarming sub-40.0 pass-blocking grade this season.
That could spell trouble against Rams interior defender Kobie Turner, who has been a force against the run. Turner’s 74.7 run-defense grade ranks eighth at the position, and he has proven to be a consistent disruptor on the interior.
Additional News:
- Rams: WR Demarcus Robinson was arrested on suspicion of DUI.
- Saints: C Erik McCoy (groin) is questionable after missing three straight practices.
- Saints: WR Chris Olave (concussion) has no timetable for his return.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Storyline of the Game: Two Strong Teams Looking to Send a Message
The Eagles enter this matchup as one of the hottest teams in the league, riding a seven-game win streak. Over that stretch, they’ve showcased dominance in two foundational areas: leading the NFL in EPA per rush and defensive EPA per play allowed. Their ability to run the ball effectively and play elite defense has positioned them as a true contender heading into the final stretch of the season.
Baltimore, despite some recent inconsistencies, has also proven its mettle. The Ravens have taken down a challenging slate of opponents, including playoff hopefuls Denver and Los Angeles. With both teams looking to secure a statement win, this matchup has all the makings of a heavyweight battle.
Matchups to Watch: Eagles RB Saquon Barkley vs. Ravens Front-Seven
Saquon Barkley is putting together one of the best seasons in NFL history. Fresh off a career-high 256 rushing yards last week, he’s on pace to challenge Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards. Oddsmakers have even started to include him in MVP conversations after his record-breaking performance.
The Ravens, however, present a much stiffer challenge. Baltimore’s run defense is among the best in the league, allowing the second-lowest EPA per rush and boasting an average depth of tackle of just 3.41 yards — second-best in the NFL. Barkley will need to be at his very best to replicate his recent success against this disciplined front seven.
Additional News:
- Eagles: EDGE Brandon Graham (tricep) expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Eagles: CB Darius Slay (concussion) ruled out for this week.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills (-7)
Storyline of the Game: Sunday Night Snow Game
The Bills have already issued a call to fans to help shovel snow ahead of their Sunday Night Football showdown with the 49ers, signaling a significant winter storm heading for Buffalo. The snow-filled conditions could provide an advantage for the Bills, particularly against a 49ers team accustomed to warmer weather and making a cross-country trip for this primetime matchup.
Adding to the challenge for San Francisco is their recent struggles, compounded by key injuries on both sides of the ball. On the bright side, Brock Purdy is set to return after sitting out last week, which should provide a much-needed boost for the offense.
Matchups to Watch: Bills LB Matt Milano vs. 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey
After missing nearly two full seasons due to injuries, Matt Milano is inching closer to a return. The standout linebacker logged three full practices this week and carries a questionable designation into Sunday’s game. If he plays, his presence could be a game-changer for Buffalo, particularly in the challenging snowy conditions, where his athleticism and range could shine.
Milano would be tasked with slowing down Christian McCaffrey, who is likely to see significant volume in a weather-impacted game. However, McCaffrey has yet to return to peak form since his recent injury scare, evidenced by a 64.2 PFF rushing grade since his return. His ability to get back on track will be crucial for the 49ers to overcome the challenging environment.
Additional News:
- 49ers: LT Trent Williams (ankle) and EDGE Nick Bosa (hip/oblique) ruled out.
- Bills: TE Dalton Kincaid (knee) expected to miss this week.
Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos (-5.5)
Storyline of the Game: Bo Nix Poised to Lead Denver to Postseason
The Broncos find themselves in prime playoff position with a 73% probability of making the postseason, according to PFF model projections. Much of that success stems from the stellar play of rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Since Week 8, Nix has posted an 82.0 passing grade — tied for fifth among qualifying quarterbacks — while delivering five big-time throws and limiting himself to just one turnover-worthy play.
For the Browns, the season has taken an unexpected turn with a pair of impressive divisional wins over the Ravens and Steelers. These victories have shown that Cleveland isn’t ready to pack it in yet, and the team enters December with a spark of hope and momentum.
Matchups to Watch: Browns WR Jerry Jeudy vs. Broncos CB Pat Surtain II
Jerry Jeudy will look to make a statement against his former team in a much-anticipated revenge game after being traded from Denver to Cleveland earlier this year. Jeudy is peaking at the right time, with a top-25 receiving grade since Week 8 and a career-best 86.4 grade in last week’s win over the Steelers, a game played in challenging weather conditions.
However, Jeudy faces a tough test against his former teammate, Pat Surtain II, the NFL’s highest-graded cornerback this season. Surtain has been dominant, holding opponents to just 0.55 yards per coverage snap — third-best among corners with at least 200 snaps — and ranking top 10 in Lockdown rate. Jeudy’s ability to win this battle could be pivotal to Cleveland’s chances.
Additional News:
- Broncos: WR Courtland Sutton (hamstring) is limited at practice and questionable for Sunday.
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