• Helping you understand market movement: This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.
• A bet for Thanksgiving night: Buy the under at 47, anticipating this number to dip further. The frigid conditions should limit the explosiveness of both the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated reading time: 7 minutes
Welcome to PFF's weekly midweek market update.
This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.
Injury, weather conditions and public pick releases can all affect line movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article.
Click here to jump to a game:
CHI@DET | NYG@DAL | MIA@GB | LV@KC | TEN@WAS | LAC@ATL
PIT@CIN | HOU@JAX | ARI@MIN | IND@NE | SEA@NYJ | TB@CAR
LAR@NO | PHI@BAL | SF@BUF | CLE@DEN
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | DET -10.5 | DET -10 | DET -10 |
| Total | 48.5 | 48.5 | 48 |
Spread: After a slight move up to 10.5 on Monday morning, the spread has settled back to 10 as of Tuesday. It’s unlikely to dip below this current number.
Total: The market remains split between 48 and 48.5, with no movement outside of those two figures so far.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | DAL -2.5 | DAL -3 | DAL -3.5 |
| Total | 39 | 37.5 | 37 |
Spread: The spread briefly climbed to 4 on Monday morning before settling back at 3.5, where it currently stands across the board.
Total: After an initial rise to the lookahead number of 39, a pick release on the under has pushed the total slightly below the opener.
Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | GB -3.5 | GB -3 | GB -3 |
| Total | 47 | 47.5 | 47 |
Spread: There’s been some movement toward 3.5, with the market currently split between 3 and 3.5. Temperatures are expected to be well below freezing, bringing to mind the Dolphins’ struggles the last time they played in cold weather.
Total: The total briefly ticked up to 48 before returning to the initial lookahead number of 47.
Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the under at 47, anticipating this number to dip further. The frigid conditions should limit the explosiveness of both offenses.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | KC -12.5 | KC -13 | KC -12 |
| Total | 43.5 | 42 | 42.5 |
Spread: The spread has seen a slow and steady decline as Raiders support grows in the market. Aidan O’Connell is set to start after Gardner Minshew was ruled out for the rest of the season.
Total: Following the O’Connell news, the total ticked up slightly to 42.5 across the board.
Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | WAS -7 | WAS -6.5 | WAS -5.5 |
| Total | 44.5 | 44 | 44.5 |
Spread: After three consecutive losses, the Commanders are coming back down to earth. Their opener dipped below the touchdown lookahead and has continued to slide, with 5.5s now across the board.
Total: The total briefly dropped as low as 43 before rebounding past the opener to 44.5.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | LAC -1.5 | LAC -1.5 | LAC -2 |
| Total | 46.5 | 46 | 47.5 |
Spread: Despite a tough situational spot and a loss on Monday Night Football, the Chargers have moved to a 2-point favorite. A few 2.5s are available, but this number will unlikely reach 3.
Total: The total opened at 46 on Sunday night and was quickly bet up to 48. Following MNF, it re-opened at 47.5, but additional support for the over has pushed several books back to 48.
Situational Factors: The Falcons have a clear situational edge, coming off their bye week, while the Chargers travel multiple time zones for an early kickoff after playing on MNF.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | CIN -1.5 | CIN -2.5 | CIN -2.5 |
| Total | 47 | 46.5 | 47 |
Spread: After opening at 2.5, several books have pushed this line out to 3. The Bengals must win this game to keep their playoff aspirations alive. However, these scenarios are often over-accounted for in the market.
Total: A small move toward the over has shifted the total up half a point from the opener to 47.
Situational Factors: The Bengals have a slight edge coming off a bye, but this is offset somewhat by the Steelers benefiting from additional rest after playing on Thursday Night Football.
Buy/Sell: As mentioned earlier, the must-win narrative appears to be inflating the Bengals’ number. I’ll gladly take the Steelers at +3, which could be the best value we see all week.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | HOU -6.5 | HOU -5 | HOU -5 |
| Total | 42.5 | 43.5 | 43.5 |
Spread: After opening at 5, we’re starting to see some 4.5s appear. This isn’t entirely surprising, considering the Texans’ home divisional loss last week despite the return of Nico Collins.
Total: The market price sits at 43.5, though a few 43s remain available. There hasn’t been much movement beyond those two numbers.
Situational Factors: Jacksonville comes into this matchup off their bye week, giving them a slight rest advantage.
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | MIN -4 | MIN -3.5 | MIN -3.5 |
| Total | 47 | 45 |
Spread: The spread remains steady at the opening number.
Total: Some books initially opened the total at 47, but it was quickly bet down to 45. Now, we’re seeing a few 44.5s appear on the board.
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | IND -2.5 | IND -2.5 | IND -2.5 |
| Total | 43 | 42 | 42 |
Spread: The market is currently split between 2.5 and 3. Expect to lay some additional vig for whichever team you like on the better side of that key number.
Total: There hasn’t been much movement, but a few books have the total at 42.5. It seems more likely to trend further in that direction.
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Jets
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | NYJ -1.5 | PK | SEA -1.5 |
| Total | 44.5 | 43 | 42 |
Spread: We’ve seen a flip in favorites from the lookahead line. After opening at a pick’em, continued support for the Seahawks has pushed the line to as high as 2.5 in some spots. While there’s been speculation about Aaron Rodgers being benched, the Jets have disputed those claims, so it’s unlikely they’re affecting the market.
Total: Opinions are split on this total, with books offering anywhere from 41.5 to 42.5. The consensus has this total trending downward, with no meaningful resistance yet.
Situational Factors: The Jets hold a significant advantage, coming off a bye and forcing the Seahawks to travel to the East Coast for an early kickoff.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | TB -6.5 | TB -5.5 | TB -5.5 |
| Total | 43.5 | 47 | 46.5 |
Spread: The market is settling at a consensus price of -5.5, though a few 6s are still available.
Total: Movement has been limited to the 46-47 range. While it’s hit 47 a couple of times, it has consistently been bet back down. It’s likely we’re approaching the closing line.
Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | LA -2.5 | LA -2.5 | LA -3 |
| Total | 46.5 | 47.5 | 49 |
Spread: Rams action has pushed this line to 3. While it hasn’t dipped back to 2.5 at books that made the move, the juice suggests some buyback on the Saints at 3. Only a few 2.5s remain in the market.
Total: The over has seen steady support this week, even after opening a point above the lookahead line. Some 48s are still available.
Situational Factors: The Saints enter this matchup coming off their bye week.
Buy/Sell: I’ll buy one of the remaining 2.5s in the market and lock in the Rams. Despite the Saints’ bye, I expect the Rams to take control early and maintain it throughout the game.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | BAL -3 | BAL -3 | BAL -3 |
| Total | 50 | 49.5 | 50.5 |
Spread: The line has fluctuated between 2.5 and 3 to start the week and is unlikely to move beyond those numbers in either direction.
Total: The total has risen from the opening 49.5 to 50.5, with a few books now showing 51.
San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | BUF -3.5 | BUF -7 | BUF -7 |
| Total | 47.5 | 46.5 | 45 |
Spread: Uncertainty surrounding Brock Purdy’s status is clearly being factored into the line despite the Niners QB throwing at practice on Monday. With the pending weather, I’m inclined to believe Purdy sits out one more week. While some books have tested the waters at 6, most market leaders have held firm at 7.
Total: The drop from 46.5 to 45 further supports the likelihood of Purdy missing this game.
Situational Factors: Buffalo comes into this matchup off a bye, and extreme weather conditions—snow and sub-freezing temperatures—are potential factors.
Buy/Sell: Contrary to popular belief, snow often benefits the offense and leads to higher scoring, as evidenced during last Thursday Night's Football game. However, wind conditions will be critical here. If the winds appear manageable and the total continues to drop with dramatic snow-filled pregame footage airing on Sunday, we could have an opportunity to fade the market. I’ll update on X if the “perfect storm” creates a buying window.
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | DEN -7 | DEN -6 | DEN -5.5 |
| Total | 40 | 40 | 42.5 |
Spread: After opening a full point below the lookahead line, this spread has bounced between 5.5 and 6. For now, 5.5 has prevailed, with some books even moving to 5.
Total: There was a slight movement toward the over initially, and a pick release on the over pushed the total up to the current 42.5. However, a few books still have it as low as 41.5.
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