NFL Week 12 Playoff Picture: It's a huge week for the Pittsburgh Steelers

• Eagles out in front in the NFC: The Philadelphia Eagles have a 71% chance of securing the top seed in the NFC, according to PFF's model.

• A massive week for the Steelers: The Pittsburgh Steelers have a 76% chance of making the playoffs with a Week 12 win against the Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals, but their chances will fall to just 39% with a loss.

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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

The situation ahead of Week 12

Current AFC playoff standings

Current NFC playoff standings

If these standings held up, we would welcome three new AFC teams (Steelers, Browns and Texans) as well as two new NFC teams (Lions and Saints) to the playoffs.

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The projections

Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.

The following charts show the projected playoff chances for each team alongside the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or loss.

The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.

AFC PLAYOFF CHANCES

NFC PLAYOFF CHANCES

TEAMS WITH THE MOST AT STAKE IN WEEK 12

Team	Chances with win	Chances with loss	Leverage
Pittsburgh Steelers	76%	39%	37%
New Orleans Saints	80%	44%	36%
Houston Texans	67%	32%	35%
Atlanta Falcons	41%	8%	33%
Buffalo Bills	61%	29%	32%
Seattle Seahawks	89%	59%	30%

Playoff scenarios

Home-field advantage

Teams that hold the No. 1 seed in the conference have a huge advantage going into the playoffs. Here are the most likely teams to do that.

AFC	%	NFC	%
Kansas City Chiefs	39%	Philadelphia Eagles	71%
Baltimore Ravens	24%	San Francisco 49ers	11%
Jacksonville Jaguars	13%	Detroit Lions	12%
Cleveland Browns	10%	Dallas Cowboys	5%

Two wild cards for the same division

With the introduction of the seventh playoff seed, we've become accustomed to seeing three playoff teams from the same division. This has happened every year since 2020, when the playoffs were extended.

As of now, the AFC North has the best chances to pull it off, even though the Cincinnati Bengals’ chances took a major hit after Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury.