NFL Week 11 Betting: Midweek market update

• Helping you understand market movement: This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

• A bet for Bengals-Chargers: Take the over at 46.5, as both teams are showing a willingness to move the ball through the air in a big way. 

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Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes

Welcome to PFF's weekly midweek market update.

This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

Injury, weather conditions and public pick releases can all affect line movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article.

CLICK HERE TO JUMP TO A GAME:

WAS@PHI | GB@CHI | CLE@NO | LAR@NE | BAL@PIT | LV@MIA | JAX@DET | MIN@TEN | SEA@SF | ATL@DEN | KC@BUF | IND@NYJ | CIN@LAC | HOU@DAL

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS VS. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Spread: The spread has bounced back and forth between 3 and 3.5, but there are now mainly 3.5s across the board. 

Total: There has not been a ton of action here, just a small move down to 48.5. You can currently get a half-point better in either direction.

GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. CHICAGO BEARS

Spread: The first move was down to 4.5 from the opener, moving all the way out to 7 before Bears support showed up to push this back down to 6. The initial move to 7 was tied to speculation from Adam Schefter that change was looming, including the possibility of benching No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. When OC Shane Waldron was let go, the market came back below a touchdown, signaling belief that Williams will get the nod again this week. 

Total: The total initially moved toward the lookahead and got as high as 42.5 before coming back down. The market is currently split between 41 and 41.5. 

Situational Factors: Packers are coming off of their bye week.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the move on the Packers and lock in GB -6. I’ll also be looking for alts here with a non-zero chance that the Bears turn to Tyson Bagent at some point if this game is starting to slip away.

CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Spread: This one’s been between 1 and 1.5 all week. The market is pretty split at the moment, and I don’t see it moving much further in either direction.

Total: There was some momentum Monday morning, driving this total up to 45 before coming back down to 44.5.

Situational Factors: Browns are coming off of their bye week.

LOS ANGELES RAMS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Spread: The spread opened up at the same 4.5 number after the Rams’ loss to the Dolphins on Monday night before moving out to 5 late Tuesday morning. There are still a handful of 4.5s on the board.

Total: A pick released Tuesday morning, pushing this total from 43 to 44.5. We never saw a 45 appear.

Situational Factors: Advantage Patriots, as the Rams fly to the East Coast for a 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff.

BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Spread: The first and only move saw Baltimore get out to 3.5 before the market reacted quickly, pushing it back down to 3. There aren’t any 3.5s anymore, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see another one show up before kickoff.

Total: One-way action has moved this total 2.5 points higher than the opening number.

Situational Factors: Slight advantage to the Ravens with additional rest after playing on Thursday Night Football.

Buy/Sell: It would feel illegal to not take Mike Tomlin and the Steelers as a three-point home dog. You can get a +100 on the +3, which I’ll lock in now. I’ll be actively looking and setting alerts for a 3.5 priced below -120. 

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS

Spread: A small move from 7 to 7.5 has officially entered the Dolphins into teaser territory. Teasers got home in a big way last week, and the Dolphins will be a popular leg this week as long as the number stays in that range.

Total: This total got out to 46 before coming down to 44. There are still some 44.5s out there, but we’ve seen a select few 43.5s pop up.

Situational Factors: The Raiders are coming off their bye week, and the Dolphins are on short rest after playing on Monday Night Football. 

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS. DETROIT LIONS

Spread: This spread was as high as 13.5 at some books. There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the status of Trevor Lawrence.

Total: Half-point adjustment down to 47, but that’s all to report here. 

MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS. TENNESSEE TITANS

Spread: While the market consensus is at the opening 6, there are quite a few 5.5s out there. 

Total: From the opening total of 38.5, this total reached as high as 41.5 at some books, before ultimately settling in at 40. The market is fairly split between 39.5 and 40. 

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Spread: The market has settled smack dab in the middle of the opening -6 and the lookahead line of -7. I’d expect this one to close right where it sits now at 6.5.

Total: D.K. Metcalf’s anticipated return to the practice field this week is helping propel this total past the lookahead line of 49. Having reached as high as 50.5, it now sits at 49.5. 

Situational Factors: Seahawks are coming off of their bye week. 

ATLANTA FALCONS VS. DENVER BRONCOS

Spread: Flipped favorites here, as the Broncos have moved from a one-point dog to nearly a three-point favorite. I’m not sold on the fact that a 3 ever shows up, but if it did, I’d expect a good bit of support for the Falcons at that number. We’re approaching the time of year when we’ll start to see some of these dome teams playing a bit out of their element. 

Total: There was a half-point adjustment up to 44, with a few books still lagging behind at 43.5. 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. BUFFALO BILLS

Spread: The best game of the week has also seen a flipped favorite from the lookahead line. It's not completely unsurprising given how the Bills have been winning, covering four of their last five matchups. On the flip side, the Chiefs have escaped by the skin of their teeth in their last two games and have failed to cover in their last three. If the Chiefs got out to +3, it’d be a buy, but we won’t see that.

Total: This total was bet up to 45 within seconds of opening just below that key number. That movement continued both Monday and Tuesday, driving this number two points higher than the opening 44.5. The total is also approaching a buy point of mine on the under, which would be 47, but it’s not quite there for me at 46.5. 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS. NEW YORK JETS

Spread: A pick release took the Jets from -3 to -4 on Monday morning. Mostly 4s exist, with a couple of 3.5s hanging around.

Total: This total got out to 45 but has since returned to the opening 44. There are still a handful of 44.5s.

CINCINNATI BENGALS VS. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Spread: Support for the Bengals has shown up early in the week in what seems to be a must-win game if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. This is down to as low as 1 at some books. This game was flexed to Sunday Night Football last week. 

Total: There’s been general movement toward the over, with disagreement at multiple points along the way. However, support for the over is winning out. There are 47s almost entirely across the board, with a couple of 46.5s remaining.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the movement on the over and lock in one of the remaining 46.5s in a game where both teams are showing a willingness to move the ball through the air in a big way. 

HOUSTON TEXANS VS. DALLAS COWBOYS

Spread: Similar to the Dolphins, the Texans saw a half-point adjustment up from their opening number, placing them in teaser range. While there are generally 7.5s across the board, a few books have taken Houston out to -8. 

Total: Not much movement on the total in this one.