• Despite some thinking the wrong team might be favored, the market seems set on holding between -1 and -1.5 Dallas Cowboys in their visit to Minnesota.
• Any movement likely would be in the Cowboys' direction if Minnesota's suddenly-alarming injury situation — with breakout LT Christian Darrisaw and rookie CB Akayleb Evans in concussion protocol — breaks poorly.
• They were dominated in Miami, but the Cleveland Browns +8 visiting the banged-up Buffalo Bills are a Week 11 value, according to PFF Greenline.
Last updated: Nov. 15, 2:25 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
The goal every week in this space is highlighting spreads that have already moved, ones that still have value and other big line changes that could occur based on injuries or various market manipulation-type techniques.
Let’s start by checking where the spreads in Week 11 have been at critical points in the past.
| Away team | Home team | Preseason spread | Lookahead spread | Week-of-open spread | Current spread |
| TEN | GB | -4.5 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -3 |
| CLV | BUF | -9 | -6 | -7 | -9.5 |
| LA | NO | 3 | -1 | -2.5 | -3.5 |
| DET | NYG | -1.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -3 |
| PHI | IND | -3 | 10 | 7.5 | 7 |
| WAS | HST | 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3 |
| NYJ | NE | -6 | -5.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 |
| CHI | ATL | 0 | -4.5 | -3 | -3 |
| CAR | BLT | -5.5 | -13 | -12.5 | -12.5 |
| LV | DEN | -3 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 |
| DAL | MIN | 0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| KC | LAC | -1.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7 |
| CIN | PIT | 2.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| SF | ARZ | 1.5 | 5.5 | 7 | 8 |
Another valuable datapoint often is the injury situation for all teams. One of the best ways to find value early in the week is digesting injury information quicker and more accurately than the rest of the market. This can be done by understanding who is returning and helpful to the team and also who is now hurt from the previous game but hasn’t been added to the official game status for a team until later in the week.
To start, let's take a look at the prior week injury information for every team and what that means for their outlook in Week 11.
There are also a few situations from Sunday and Monday that are relevant from an injury perspective and could impact the spread of games for the upcoming week. Here's a roundup of all the key news with highlights and thoughts on how long the potential issue is for the player in question.
Let’s dive into the games whose lines have already moved and others that could have the most spread movement as we head closer to kickoff.
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DALLAS COWBOYS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+1, 47.5)
• After emotionally-draining victory, Minnesota returns home with a much cleaner path to potentially gain NFC's top seed: The betting market seems hesitant to crown them this early, as the Vikings are 1-point underdogs to a Cowboys team that's coming off a disappointing let-down OT loss.
• The injury situation for the Vikings has suddenly become alarming: With three key players looking questionable to start the week. Christian Darrisaw would be a significant loss, as he's graded as a top-10 pass-blocking tackle and would be sorely missed facing off against the top pass rush unit based on PFF unit grade.
• Despite some people thinking the wrong team might be favored in this matchup: The market seems set on holding between 1 and 1.5. Any movement could be in the Cowboys' direction if the Vikings injury news breaks poorly. Locking in Cowboys -1 right now does offer neutral (0.0%) value based on PFF Greenline.
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BUFFALO BILLS (-8, 43.5)
• The betting market seems to have digested the Bills' most recent performance as nothing more than a minor hiccup: As the spread continues to push out somewhat close to a preseason high of -9.5.
• Buffalo might have another hole to plug in its defense: LB Tremaine Edmunds questionable with a groin injury. Graded as the best coverage linebacker or safety in the NFL through 10 weeks, Edmunds would be sorely missed in a unit already down Micah Hyde for the season and without fellow starting safety Jordan Poyer (elbow) the past two games.
• PFF Greenline points toward a bounce-back spot for Cleveland: The Browns were dominated coming out of their bye, but they at least are starting to turn over some of their early-season injury concerns. Greenline finds value on the Browns covering the current +8 spread.
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