NFL Week 10 Power Rankings: How long will the Chiefs stay unbeaten?

• When will the Chiefs lose?: The Chiefs knocked off the Buccaneers in overtime and moved to 8-0. Just how long will they stay unbeaten?

• Dennis Allen’s time is up: The Saints moved on from Allen after the team’s defeat to the Panthers in Week 9.

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Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes

The power rankings below provide clear tiers on the market assessment of each NFL team, offering a comprehensive view of team standings and future prospects. All of the below information and more can be found in PFF’s power rankings tool, which is available with a PFF+ subscription.

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1. Kansas City Chiefs

Strength of schedule to date: 9
Strength of schedule remaining: 21
Projected win total: 14.63
% chance of making the playoffs: 99.94
% chance of winning the division: 95.51
% chance of winning the conference: 42.53
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 24.32

The offense looked as good as it has all season against the Buccaneers, and the Chiefs are now 8-0 and flying. If the offense can remain at this level, then the rest of the NFL might be doomed. They’re also in the top 10 in EPA per play on both sides of the ball.

2. Detroit Lions

Strength of schedule to date: 23
Strength of schedule remaining: 6
Projected win total: 12.86
% chance of making the playoffs: 96.97
% chance of winning the division: 73.40
% chance of winning the conference: 28.40
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 14.28

Detroit moved to 7-1 with a win against the Packers and is now 4-0 on the road this season. The Lions are a juggernaut atop the NFC and have a 30% chance of making it to the Super Bowl after their divisional win. On top of that, they’re top-10 in EPA per play on both sides of the ball — they’re unstoppable.

3. Baltimore Ravens

Strength of schedule to date: 6
Strength of schedule remaining: 9
Projected win total: 11.23
% chance of making the playoffs: 92.95
% chance of winning the division: 55.11
% chance of winning the conference: 15.15
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 7.90

The Ravens hung 41 points on, arguably, one of the best defenses in the NFL, and made it look easy. They’re 6-3, boast a 56% chance of winning the AFC North and Lamar Jackson might legitimately be playing the best football of his career as the MVP favorite. The soul-crushing offense is second in EPA per play (0.198).

4. San Francisco 49ers

Strength of schedule to date: 19
Strength of schedule remaining: 11
Projected win total: 9.61
% chance of making the playoffs: 56.49
% chance of winning the division: 43.73
% chance of winning the conference: 11.37
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 5.96

The 49ers were on a bye week in Week 9 and will likely, finally, have Christian McCaffrey back for their Week 10 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It comes at the perfect time, as the NFC West is wide open and the 4-4 49ers need a boost. George Kittle leads all tight ends with an 88.5 overall grade.

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5. Buffalo Bills

Strength of schedule to date: 26
Strength of schedule remaining: 9
Projected win total: 11.91
% chance of making the playoffs: 98.63
% chance of winning the division: 97.03
% chance of winning the conference: 15.88
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 7.83

The Bills opened up a four-game lead in the AFC East with a win against their divisional rival Dolphins. It took a 61-yard game-winning kick from Tyler Bass to get it done, but the Bills are rolling at 7-2 and are top-10 in EPA per play on both sides of the ball.

6. Philadelphia Eagles

Strength of schedule to date: 30
Strength of schedule remaining: 19
Projected win total: 11.65
% chance of making the playoffs: 88.47
% chance of winning the division: 45.54
% chance of winning the conference: 14.68
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 7.28

Despite a second-half comeback from the Jaguars, and some often interesting playcalling — followed by boos — the Eagles held out to win 28-23 and are now 6-2 with an 85% chance of making the playoffs. The offense is cumulatively eighth in EPA per play (0.047), a step up from ranking 15th over the first four weeks of the year.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers

Strength of schedule to date: 28
Strength of schedule remaining: 1
Projected win total: 10.59
% chance of making the playoffs: 85.89
% chance of winning the division: 40.24
% chance of winning the conference: 8.01
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 3.90

The Steelers were on a bye week in Week 9 and will likely be devising ways to make the Russell Wilson-led offense even better ahead of a Week 10 showdown with the Commanders. They’ll also need to rely on a defense that is fifth in EPA per play allowed (-0.102).

8. Green Bay Packers

Strength of schedule to date: 14
Strength of schedule remaining: 13
Projected win total: 10.38
% chance of making the playoffs: 65.29
% chance of winning the division: 8.34
% chance of winning the conference: 6.05
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.91

The Packers didn’t impress in the pouring rain at Lambeau Field, but a loss against the Lions doesn’t hurt them too much. They’re still clinging on to a wild-card spot at 6-3 and have a 64% chance of making the playoffs. The defense, which has impressed, is eighth in EPA per play allowed (-0.065).

9. Minnesota Vikings

Strength of schedule to date: 5
Strength of schedule remaining: 22
Projected win total: 11.07
% chance of making the playoffs: 77.40
% chance of winning the division: 16.37
% chance of winning the conference: 8.42
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 3.76

The Vikings got back to winning ways with a 21-13 victory against the Colts on Sunday night after back-to-back losses. Sam Darnold demonstrated the good, the bad and the ugly of his game, while the Vikings defense just reminded everyone how effective they are. Minnesota is third in EPA per play allowed (-0.134).

10. Los Angeles Chargers

Strength of schedule to date: 24
Strength of schedule remaining: 18
Projected win total: 9.91
% chance of making the playoffs: 74.03
% chance of winning the division: 3.06
% chance of winning the conference: 4.49
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.97

The Chargers have won three of their last four games and sit with a 5-3 record, including a 74% chance of making the playoffs, after their win against a solid Cleveland Browns defense with some fighting spirit. Justin Herbert and the LA offense have been much better in recent weeks, but it’s the defense that leads the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.175) that continues to stand out.

11. Washington Commanders

Strength of schedule to date: 31
Strength of schedule remaining: 17
Projected win total: 11.96
% chance of making the playoffs: 94.03
% chance of winning the division: 53.50
% chance of winning the conference: 14.77
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 7.06

The Commanders knocked off the Giants with a gritty 27-22 win in Week 9 and are now 7-2 with the second-best record in the NFC, and the third-best in the NFL. They’ve had the second-easiest schedule to date, but as long as they keep racking up the wins, they’ll be playoff-bound. The offense, as it has for most of the season, leads the NFL in EPA per play (0.210).

12. Houston Texans

Strength of schedule to date: 20
Strength of schedule remaining: 7
Projected win total: 10.22
% chance of making the playoffs: 92.26
% chance of winning the division: 86.47
% chance of winning the conference: 6.35
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.85

The Texans offense coughed, spluttered and put forth its worst season performance against the Jets on Thursday night. Despite that and the loss, Houston still has an 84% chance of winning the AFC South. But are they good enough to hang in the postseason? Nico Collins, who leads all receivers with a 92.1 grade, may return in Week 10.

13. Cincinnati Bengals

Strength of schedule to date: 25
Strength of schedule remaining: 5
Projected win total: 7.94
% chance of making the playoffs: 31.97
% chance of winning the division: 4.60
% chance of winning the conference: 1.92
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.77

The Bengals are 4-5 after their win against the Raiders and are still firmly in the wild-card race, with Joe Burrow playing out of his mind. However, the Bengals have the sixth-toughest remaining schedule and have just a 33% chance of making the playoffs. The chips are stacked against them, and the defense is 25th in EPA per play allowed (0.031).

14. Denver Broncos

Strength of schedule to date: 22
Strength of schedule remaining: 4
Projected win total: 8.84
% chance of making the playoffs: 49.10
% chance of winning the division: 1.43
% chance of winning the conference: 2.57
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.19

The Broncos had a rude awakening against the Ravens in Week 9. They’ve had the 25th-hardest schedule so far and now face the fifth-toughest the rest of the way. The defense is still excellent, and fourth in EPA per play allowed (-0.133), but Denver’s record might start to catch up with it.

15. New York Jets

Strength of schedule to date: 12
Strength of schedule remaining: 29
Projected win total: 7.27
% chance of making the playoffs: 19.46
% chance of winning the division: 2.56
% chance of winning the conference: 1.02
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.44

The Jets put together a good performance across the board to beat the Texans on Thursday night, and still have a 17% chance of making the playoffs. They also have the fourth-easiest remaining schedule. It can’t be done… Can it? Aaron Rodgers’ 79.6 grade is the 11th highest among quarterbacks.

16. Atlanta Falcons

Strength of schedule to date: 15
Strength of schedule remaining: 30
Projected win total: 10.31
% chance of making the playoffs: 87.71
% chance of winning the division: 84.44
% chance of winning the conference: 7.19
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 2.94

The Falcons opened up a two-game lead at the top of the NFC South and now boast an 87% chance of making the playoffs. The Kirk Cousins-led offense has found its groove, and they’re seventh in EPA per play (0.051) with the second-easiest remaining schedule.

17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Strength of schedule to date: 1
Strength of schedule remaining: 32
Projected win total: 8.46
% chance of making the playoffs: 34.19
% chance of winning the division: 14.33
% chance of winning the conference: 2.10
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.84

The Buccaneers ran the Chiefs close, but an overtime loss sent them two games back from the Falcons in the NFC South. They’re still fifth in EPA per play on offense (0.094) but their playoff chances got a little slimmer at 36%. However, they have the fifth-easiest remaining schedule.

18. Dallas Cowboys

Strength of schedule to date: 3
Strength of schedule remaining: 19
Projected win total: 6.47
% chance of making the playoffs: 4.23
% chance of winning the division: 0.96
% chance of winning the conference: 0.27
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.08

The writing may be on the wall in Dallas. The Cowboys fell to 3-5 after the loss to the Falcons, which in itself would have been enough to cast them off, but the loss of Dak Prescott for the next few weeks is the nail in the coffin. Where do the Cowboys go from here? The defense is 30th in EPA per play allowed (0.088).

19. Los Angeles Rams

Strength of schedule to date: 7
Strength of schedule remaining: 22
Projected win total: 8.22
% chance of making the playoffs: 23.27
% chance of winning the division: 16.28
% chance of winning the conference: 1.77
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.75

The Rams have won three straight games and are fully in the race for the NFC West. They’re half a game back of the Cardinals after beating the Seahawks in overtime and have the 24th-toughest remaining schedule. Momentum is on their side, especially with rookie Jared Verse — whose 83.0 overall grade is 12th among qualified edge rushers.

20. Chicago Bears

Strength of schedule to date: 32
Strength of schedule remaining: 3
Projected win total: 7.72
% chance of making the playoffs: 15.64
% chance of winning the division: 1.89
% chance of winning the conference: 1.27
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.50

Prior to their Week 7 bye, the Bears were 4-2; it felt like the tide was finally changing in Chicago. Two weeks later, they’re 4-4 and the goodwill has run out. They have the third-toughest remaining schedule and now have just a 16% chance of making the playoffs. The defense is still second in EPA per play allowed (-0.139).

21. Indianapolis Colts

Strength of schedule to date: 12
Strength of schedule remaining: 27
Projected win total: 7.89
% chance of making the playoffs: 34.55
% chance of winning the division: 9.18
% chance of winning the conference: 1.40
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.69

The Colts lost the first game of the now-confirmed Joe Flacco era and, honestly, the offense looked as bad as it has at any point this season. Sure, Flacco probably gives the Colts a better chance to win games in 2024, but to what end? They’re 4-5 and the offense is 20th in EPA per play (-0.034). The ceiling isn’t high.

22. Seattle Seahawks

Strength of schedule to date: 17
Strength of schedule remaining: 8
Projected win total: 7.31
% chance of making the playoffs: 10.82
% chance of winning the division: 6.34
% chance of winning the conference: 0.85
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.40

The Seahawks have lost five of their last six games, and each week seem more than willing to throw Geno Smith to the wolves. Through nine weeks, Smith has been pressured on 153 dropbacks, more than any other quarterback in the NFL, and the Seahawks now have just a 9% chance of making the playoffs. Smith has been credited with 18 big-time throws, the second-most in the NFL.

23. Arizona Cardinals

Strength of schedule to date: 2
Strength of schedule remaining: 28
Projected win total: 9.04
% chance of making the playoffs: 42.48
% chance of winning the division: 33.65
% chance of winning the conference: 2.69
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 1.03

The Cardinals comfortably defeated the Bears in Week 9 and now have the lead of the NFC West, winning their last three games. Things are looking good for the Cardinals, possessing the third-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL and a 43% chance of making the playoffs. They’ll be spurred on by Kyler Murray, whose 80.5 overall grade is eighth among quarterbacks.

24. Miami Dolphins

Strength of schedule to date: 29
Strength of schedule remaining: 26
Projected win total: 6.17
% chance of making the playoffs: 8.08
% chance of winning the division: 0.22
% chance of winning the conference: 0.37
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.14

The Dolphins haven’t been bad over the last two weeks, but they’ve lost three straight games and are 2-6. It’s probably time to write this team off for 2024, but who knows what happens beyond that? Terron Armstead leads all tackles with a 91.1 overall grade.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars

Strength of schedule to date: 18
Strength of schedule remaining: 25
Projected win total: 5.42
% chance of making the playoffs: 4.44
% chance of winning the division: 1.61
% chance of winning the conference: 0.10
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.05

The Jaguars fought back against the Eagles, but a late Trevor Lawrence interception sealed the loss. Jacksonville fell to 2-7 and is 31st in EPA per play allowed (0.106). Despite the turnover, Lawrence’s 80.3 overall grade is ninth among quarterbacks.

26. Cleveland Browns

Strength of schedule to date: 16
Strength of schedule remaining: 2
Projected win total: 4.66
% chance of making the playoffs: 1.48
% chance of winning the division: 0.05
% chance of winning the conference: 0.05
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.02

Ah, Jameis Winston, how we’ve missed you. The Browns fell to 2-7 after a loss to the Chargers where they turned the ball over three times. They’ve got the second-toughest remaining schedule, too, so things could get ugly. The offense is 31st in EPA per play (-0.200).

27. New Orleans Saints

Strength of schedule to date: 10
Strength of schedule remaining: 31
Projected win total: 5.72
% chance of making the playoffs: 2.12
% chance of winning the division: 0.88
% chance of winning the conference: 0.14
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.07

The Saints have had enough. Dennis Allen is out after an embarrassing 23-22 loss to the Panthers, and that’s all she wrote for the Saints in 2024. They’ve lost seven straight games and are 27th in overall grade. An overhaul is on the way in New Orleans, hopefully.

28. Tennessee Titans

Strength of schedule to date: 11
Strength of schedule remaining: 15
Projected win total: 5.34
% chance of making the playoffs: 5.63
% chance of winning the division: 2.74
% chance of winning the conference: 0.14
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.06

The Titans pulled off an overtime win against the Patriots to record their second win of the season, so that’s fun. The defense is still excellent and ranks seventh in EPA per play allowed (-0.068), but the offense is 29th (-0.171). It’s easy to see where improvements are needed.

29. New York Giants

Strength of schedule to date: 8
Strength of schedule remaining: 22
Projected win total: 5.15
% chance of making the playoffs: 0.33
% chance of winning the division: 0.00
% chance of winning the conference: 0.01
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.00

The Giants are 2-7 and in a familiar position: bottom of the NFC East with little hope to cling on to. The Daniel Jones era might be coming to an end, but the former first-round pick at least put up a fight against the Commanders in Week 9. However, the Giants offense is 25th in EPA per play (-0.108).

30. Las Vegas Raiders

Strength of schedule to date: 4
Strength of schedule remaining: 16
Projected win total: 4.86
% chance of making the playoffs: 0.77
% chance of winning the division: 0.00
% chance of winning the conference: 0.00
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.00

Antonio Pierce is likely on the hot seat after a blowout loss to the Bengals in Week 9, as the Raiders are now 2-7 and losers of five straight games. Oh, and they cleared house on the offensive side of the ball, firing offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. That’ll fix the problem for an offense that ranks dead last in EPA per play (-0.207). Sure.

31. Carolina Panthers

Strength of schedule to date: 21
Strength of schedule remaining: 14
Projected win total: 4.47
% chance of making the playoffs: 0.82
% chance of winning the division: 0.19
% chance of winning the conference: 0.02
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.00

It’s hard to not be happy for Bryce Young, who has endured so much during his first two seasons in the NFL but got the win against the Saints in Week 9. How long Young will remain the starter is anyone’s guess, but the 2023 No. 1 pick looked good and earned a 77.8 overall grade in the win.

32. New England Patriots

Strength of schedule to date: 27
Strength of schedule remaining: 12
Projected win total: 4.69
% chance of making the playoffs: 0.56
% chance of winning the division: 0.35
% chance of winning the conference: 0.02
% chance of winning the Super Bowl: 0.01

The Patriots have a potential star in Drake Maye. The quarterback showed off all of his talent in the overtime loss against the Titans, and that’s something for Patriots fans to hang their hats on. Maye, alone, makes them worth paying attention to — even if they’re bottom-six in EPA per play on both sides of the ball.