NFL Week 10 Betting: Midweek market update

• Helping you understand market movement: This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

• A bet for Bengals-Ravens: Buy the Bengals at +6, especially with Lamar Jackson potentially playing at less than 100%.

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Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes

Welcome to PFF's weekly midweek market update.

This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

Injury, weather conditions and public pick releases can all affect line movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article.

Click here to jump to a game:

CIN@BAL | NYG@CAR | MIN@JAX | PIT@WAS | SF@TB | ATL@NO | NE@CHI DEN@KC | BUF@IND | TEN@LAC | PHI@DAL | NYJ@ARI
DET@HOU | MIA@LAR

Spread: After opening at 6.5, the spread has ticked down slightly to 6, with some books now offering 5.5. Both teams made moves at Tuesday’s trade deadline, but the biggest factor appears to be Lamar Jackson missing practice on Tuesday due to a knee injury. Although he carries a questionable tag, Jackson is expected to play on Thursday.

Total: One-way action has driven the total up from 51 to 53. Both offenses erupted for 41 points last Sunday, and these teams combined for 79 points in their Week 5 matchup, fueling the upward trend. The market is currently split between 52.5 and 53.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the Bengals at +6, especially with Lamar Jackson potentially playing at less than 100%. I expect this line to close just below 6.

Spread: The line has moved up by half a point to 5.5, with some books now offering -6. It’s unlikely to climb any higher than that.

Total: The total briefly hit a high of 42, but it has settled at 41.5 across the board.

Spread: After opening at 3.5, the line climbed as high as 4.5 at some books before settling back down to 4, with a few returning to the original 3.5. It’s unlikely to drop to 3.

Total: A pick release briefly pushed the total up to 48, but it has since settled at 47, with some 47.5s still available.

Spread: It’s been all Commanders, pushing the line to 3. The market is currently split between 2.5 and 3. Both teams were active buyers at the trade deadline, with the Steelers adding wide receiver Mike Williams on offense and the Commanders bolstering their defense by acquiring cornerback Marshon Lattimore.

Total: The total briefly reached 47 but gradually drifted toward the opening number of 45.

Situational Factors: The Steelers are coming off their bye week, giving them a rest advantage.

Buy/Sell: I’ll fade the move and buy the Steelers at +3. It’s surprising to see the Commanders favored by 3, especially considering how the Steelers’ offense has performed under Wilson and with the rest advantage in their favor.

Spread: San Francisco reached 6.5 on Monday before Tampa Bay re-opened at 6 and then dropped to 5.5 on Tuesday morning. The board is now split between 5 and 5.5.

Total: After re-opening at 49 following Monday Night Football, additional action on the over pushed the total to 51 before settling at 50.5.

Situational Factors: Advantage 49ers, as they’re coming off a bye week, while the Bucs are on a short week after playing on Monday night.

Spread: There was some support for Atlanta on Monday morning, but it was mostly reflected in the vig at the key number of 3.

Total: The total dropped by one point to 46.5, with brief support pushing it back to 47 for a short period. Ultimately, it settled back down, and we’re starting to see some 46s appear on the board.

Spread: A pick release on the Patriots pushed the line down from 7 to 5.5, with some buy-back at 5.5. The market is currently split between 5.5 and 6.

Total: There’s been a slight shift towards the under early in the week, but I don’t expect it to move much further and anticipate it returning closer to the lookahead number.

Buy/Sell: I’ll sell the slight move towards the under and buy back on the over at 39.

Spread: The line reached KC -9.5 on Monday but re-opened at 8.5, quickly dropping to 8 after the Chiefs were taken to overtime against Tampa Bay before securing the win to stay undefeated.

Total: Little movement from the opening 41.5. There’s been slight support for the under, but nothing significant.

Spread: This spread has fluctuated between 5 and 3.5, with several books now showing 3.5.

Total: The total briefly exceeded the lookahead number, reaching 47.5, before settling back to 46. You can currently find options on either side, at 45.5 or 46.5.

Spread: The line initially moved out to 9.5 following a pick release on the Chargers but has since slid back down below the opening number, settling at 7.5 at most books.

Total: After a quick one-point adjustment up to 38 shortly after opening, there’s been no further movement.

Spread: Dak Prescott’s hamstring injury, which may lead to an IR stint, has been the main driver here, pushing the line from 6 to 7.5. There was some support for the Cowboys at 7.5, as they’re expected to turn to either Cooper Rush or Trey Lance at quarterback. On a positive note for Dallas, Micah Parsons is likely to return for this divisional matchup.

Total: The total has dropped significantly, sliding from a lookahead of 47 down to an opener of 44.5 and then further to 42. A few books even hit 41.5 before we finally saw some support for the over.

Buy/Sell: While the total accurately reflects Prescott’s injury, the spread does not. I’m taking Philadelphia at -7.5.

Spread: There hasn’t been much movement from the opener. Arizona has seen a slight push to 2 at a few books, but nothing significant enough to approach the key number of 3.

Total: Early in the week, the total dropped as low as 44.5 before steadily climbing up, surpassing the opener and landing at 46.

Spread: Detroit saw early support, pushing the line to 4 and even 4.5 at a few books. However, Houston action has since brought it back to the opening 3.5.

Total: The total initially climbed as high as 50 before settling back to 48.5.

Spread: It’s been all Rams action, moving the line to 2.5 across the board. A move to 3 hasn’t happened yet, but if it does, expect immediate buy-back on the Dolphins. This spread should ultimately settle at 2.5.

Total: Minimal movement from the opener on Monday, with only a half-point shift in either direction. By late Tuesday, a few 49.5s appeared.

Situational Factors: The Rams have a situational edge, as the Dolphins are traveling to the West Coast for their second consecutive road game.