• Miami to take the AFC East: The Buffalo Bills are currently favored to win the AFC East, just as they have in each of the last four seasons. However, their roster looks quite different than it did in previous seasons.
• San Francisco for the three-peat: The 49ers have won double-digit games in four of the last five seasons and taken home three division titles, including two back-to-back victories going into 2024.
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Estimated Reading Time: 12 minutes
As we preview the 2024 NFL season, we wanted to step back from player evaluation and look at team predictions. Here, we take a stab at some early division winners for 2024.
AFC EAST: MIAMI DOLPHINS
The Buffalo Bills are currently favored to win the AFC East, just as they have in each of the last four seasons. However, their roster looks quite different from previous seasons, as there will be no Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Tre’Davious White, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer or Micah Hyde. They will be a good team with one of the best quarterbacks in the world behind center, but it’s a tough division, and they have a tough schedule.
The Jets earned the best team defense grade (90.0) in the league in 2023. That defense will look to remain just as strong in 2024, and the offense will hopefully have a fully healthy Aaron Rodgers for the full season. Unfortunately, their year starts with three games in 11 days, which could require a very fast start.
As for Miami, people love to talk about the offense, but the defense was also very good last season, finishing top-five in both team pass-rush grade (84.1) and team run-defense grade (89.1). They also have the easiest strength of schedule in the division.
It’s close between the Jets and Dolphins for me, but a more favorable schedule setup gives the Dolphins the edge.
AFC NORTH: CINCINNATI BENGALS
Though the AFC North is typically one of the league's most competitive divisions year in and year out, this one came down to two teams for me: the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Bengals finished last in the division at 9-8 a season ago, but starting quarterback Joe Burrow missed seven games through injury and was banged up in a few games to start the year. All signs seem to point to him being healthy and leading a very strong roster.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is coming off an MVP season, and while his stellar play can absolutely continue, I am worried about a dip in this team's defensive production now that former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is no longer there. The Ravens finished top-10 in team run-defense grade (67.8), team coverage grade (93.0) and team pass-rush grade (81.7) in 2023. They were also the No. 2 defense in the league in terms of expected points added (EPA) allowed per play. A repeat in those areas will likely mean another division title, but any dip could open the door for the Bengals.
Plus, according to win percentage from last season, the Ravens have the second-hardest schedule in 2024, while the Bengals’ schedule is tied for 16th.
AFC SOUTH: HOUSTON TEXANS
The Texans enter the summer months as the favorite to win the AFC South after going 10-7 in C.J. Stroud‘s and DeMeco Ryans’ first season in town.
From Week 8, they went 7-4 and ranked top-20 in basically every offensive and defensive category as a team. It feels like that roster got so much better this offseason, as well, with additions such as Stefon Diggs, Danielle Hunter, Azeez Al-Shaair, Joe Mixon and Denico Autry.
This division is always wildly unpredictable — as evidenced by the Texans winning it last year — so don’t count the Colts or the Jaguars out. But the Texans came out on top last year and only got more talented this offseason, so they’re the team we have the most confidence in.
AFC WEST: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Even in a league where anything can happen, this one is hardly up for debate. Right now, the Chiefs are minus money to win the AFC West; they have won this division for eight straight seasons dating back to 2016.
Andy Reid's squad is on the quest for a three-peat as reigning Super Bowl champions, and even after losing star cornerback L’Jarius Sneed from last year’s team, the stars are all still there.
That all said, it is worth noting that Kansas City's 75.8 team offense grade over the regular season was the lowest mark the team has earned in its eight-year run of winning the division.
NFC EAST: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The Eagles’ 2023 season was very strange. In fact, I’ve never seen a 10-1 team with worse vibes than Philly after Week 12. That all came spiraling down as the Eagles lost six of their last seven games to end the season, their last at the hands of the Buccaneers in the wild-card round of the playoffs.
If they can turn the page, they are still the most talented team in the division. The Cowboys — who won the division in 2023 — are certainly in the mix, but it’s a question of where they are mentally after their own postseason collapse.
Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott played like an MVP throughout the regular season. His 89.8 passing grade was second only to Tua Tagovailoa, and his 73.5 passing grade under pressure ranked first among his peers. A repeat of that caliber of a season will surely put the division within reach, even if Philly was to bounce back.
NFC NORTH: DETROIT LIONS
On FanDuel, the Lions and the Packers are both below +200 to win the NFC North, which I was a bit surprised by. That’s no slight to the Packers, who ended the season on a heater, with Jordan Love playing like an elite quarterback and marching into Dallas as a wild-card team to win on the road.
That said, the Lions had one of the best teams in the NFL last season and only got more talented in the offseason. Detroit’s 69.7 team defense grade ranked only 22nd in the league, but most of that is due to a very low coverage grade. They addressed those concerns in a big way by bringing in Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson in free agency while drafting Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
Plus, Green Bay also has the harder strength of schedule when using last year’s team win totals.
NFC SOUTH: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Based on win totals from 2023, every team in the NFC South has one of the five easiest schedules for 2024. The Buccaneers have won the division in each of the last three seasons, and with most of that team returning — and some new additions that should improve certain areas — I’ll take them to repeat in a close contest with the Falcons.
Atlanta was close last year despite sub-par quarterback play, and the team added veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. That alone is why they are currently the betting favorites. But last year, before his injury, Cousins put up career lows in both average depth of target and big-time throw percentage. He will also be 36 years old and coming off an Achilles injury.
Baker Mayfield was up and down for the Bucs to start but ended the year with a strong showing in the postseason. He’s working with a new offensive coordinator, but the Falcons are also working with a completely new coaching staff.
Both of these teams have question marks at cornerback and the team that mitigates that weakness the best could very well be the team hosting a playoff game next January.
NFC WEST: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The Rams have Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford, so I’ll never count Los Angeles out. And while the loss of Aaron Donald is a massive blow, the roster as a whole got more balanced.
On the other hand, the 49ers have won double-digit games in four of the last five seasons and taken home three division titles, including two back-to-back division victories going into 2024. The roster also remains one of the most talented in the league. The defense should once again be stellar, and the offense should be a well-oiled machine. This was a team that was close to a Super Bowl victory last year, and their most valuable players all still remain.
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