Travis Kelce's slow start and what it means for the Kansas City Chiefs

• A mysteriously slow start: Through three games, Kelce has recorded just eight catches for 69 scoreless yards, earning a modest 61.8 PFF receiving grade.

• The knock-on effect: Kansas City's offense has been relatively average despite their 3-0 record. The group ranks 14th in team offense grade, 16th in team passing grade and 18th in team receiving grade. They've generated 0.018 EPA per play, 13th in the league and the lowest among teams with a positive figure.

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

The Kansas City Chiefs’ Super Bowl championship defense could not be going much better. They’re currently 3-0, with all three wins coming against teams with serious playoff aspirations, and four of their next six games are against teams that missed the postseason last year.

In fact, of the Chiefs’ remaining 14 opponents, only six had winning records last year. So, another No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff race is very much in the cards.

With the team getting out to an undefeated start despite facing the likes of the Ravens, Bengals and Falcons, it must be safe to assume the Patrick Mahomes–Travis Kelce connection is once again running roughshod over the league, right?

Well, not exactly.

Through three games, Kelce has recorded just eight catches for 69 scoreless yards, earning a modest 61.8 PFF receiving grade.

To put those numbers into perspective, Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert surpassed all of those numbers in a single game this past Sunday, hauling in 10 passes for 170 yards against the New Orleans Saints.

To get a sense of how slow this start has been, here’s a breakdown of his key stats from the first three games of each season since Patrick Mahomes became the Chiefs’ starting quarterback in 2018:

Note: Kelce missed week 1 of 2023 due to injury, so 2023 stats are from Weeks 2-4, while the rest are from weeks 1-3.

Typically, Kelce has started seasons strong during his seven-year run with Mahomes as quarterback. His lowest-ever receiving grade under Mahomes came in Week 1 of 2018, when he managed just one catch for 6 yards, as the duo was still building the chemistry that would eventually lead them to multiple Super Bowl titles.

Kelce's next three lowest receiving grades to start a season all occurred in 2024: 63.0 against the Ravens, 59.6 against the Bengals and 61.2 against the Falcons.

Excluding the previously mentioned 6-yard game, Kelce's three performances this year also mark his lowest early-season receiving yardage totals. He has yet to surpass 46 yards in a game in 2024, whereas his previous season-low through the first three games was 51 yards.

Note: Kelce missed week 1 of 2023 due to injury, so 2023 stats are from Weeks 2-4, while the rest are from weeks 1-3.

As a result, Kansas City's offense has been fairly average despite the team's 3-0 record. The group ranks 14th in team offense grade, 16th in team passing grade and 18th in team receiving grade. They've generated 0.018 EPA per play, 13th in the league and the lowest mark among teams with a positive figure.

Kelce is nearing his 35th birthday, an age when most tight ends have already begun to decline. He's only a few months younger than Rob Gronkowski, who retired nearly three years ago. While Kelce's place in Canton is assured, this season could be the first signs of decline for the legendary tight end. If so, it poses a significant challenge for Kansas City in its pursuit of becoming the first team in the Super Bowl era to win three consecutive championships.