• Chiefs can dial up pressure at a high level: Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo developed unique pressure packages that generated 66 sacks during the regular season, with 16 coming from unblocked pressures — both league-leading figures.
• Cowboys will look for more defensive scores: Dallas led the NFL in defensive touchdowns (six) during the regular season, driven by DaRon Bland‘s ball-hawking ability.
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Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes
The 2023-24 NFL playoffs kick off with an action-packed Super Wild Card Weekend.
The contenders got to this point by different means, each built with differing strengths and unique issues that we'll highlight below.
Baltimore Ravens
Strength: Lamar Jackson
We can’t discuss the Ravens' strengths without mentioning Lamar Jackson’s incredible play this season. The electric MVP front-runner closed out the regular season with the highest passing grade of his career (85.1). A credit to his ability to keep Baltimore's offense on schedule, Jackson earned a 90.9 grade on first and second downs, ranking fourth among qualifying passers. When thrown off script, Jackson is nearly unstoppable, pacing the position in grade outside the pocket (92.0).
Weakness: Gap Concepts
If the Ravens are lacking in any area, run fitting could be at the top. While they are largely solid on defense in the ground game, they’ve struggled to slow down gap concepts, having allowed a successful play on 32.5% of such runs.
Buffalo Bills
Strength: Takeaways
The Bills field the most opportunistic defense in the NFL, racking up a league-leading 29 takeaways this season. The aggressive unit breaks on routes and swarms the ball, having forced 19 turnovers on targets short of the sticks — the most in the NFL.
Highest-Graded Bills Defenders | 2023 Regular Season
Weakness: Giveaways
On the other hand, Buffalo's offense has struggled with ball security this season, totaling the eighth-most turnovers in the NFL (27). As phenomenal as quarterback Josh Allen has been, the variance in his play recently has contributed to this issue. Since returning from the Bills' Week 13 bye, Allen has accounted for nine turnover-worthy plays, tied for the third most over that span.
Kansas City Chiefs
Strength: Scheming Pressure
The pressure packages that Steve Spagnuolo has developed in Kansas City generated 66 sacks during the regular season, with 16 coming from unblocked pressures — both league-leading figures. The Chiefs' defensive coordinator is unafraid to dial up unique blitz calls, ranking third in defensive back blitz rate (19.9%) while also producing an incredible 74 plays with unblocked pressure, ranking third in the league.
Weakness: Generating Explosive Pass Plays
The Chiefs have struggled to push the ball downfield, usually a strength of their explosive offense. Patrick Mahomes and company have completed only 19 of their 67 passes targeted 20 or more yards downfield. That accounts for just 4.5% of their total completions, a rate placing them at the bottom of the league.
Houston Texans
Strength: Young Playmakers
By the close of the regular season, Houston laid claim to three of the 15 highest-graded first-year players. Top-three picks C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. have lived up to their lofty billings, ranking highly in PFF's stable metrics. Stroud ranks in the 93rd percentile in clean-pocket grade, while Anderson ranks in the 84th percentile in pass-rush grade on true pass sets.
Weakness: Turnover Opportunities
While, on paper, the Texans led the NFL with the fewest turnovers (14) this season, they experienced some fortunate bounces in that regard. Houston lost just 43.8% of its fumbles, the eighth-lowest rate. It was a similar story for dropped interceptions, with Texans passers throwing for eight combined interceptions despite nine being dropped by defenders.
Cleveland Browns
Strength: Pass Defense
Headlined by PFF All-Pro Myles Garrett — the highest-graded edge rusher (93.6) in the NFL — the Browns have allowed the expected points added per play figure on pass snaps (-0.226) this season. That is in large part thanks to a pass-rush unit that totaled the fifth-most pressures (356) and a coverage unit that allowed the fewest receptions of 15-plus yards (62).
Highest-Graded Browns Coverage Defenders | 2023 Regular Season
Weakness: Penalties
Self-inflicted wounds plagued this Browns offense in 2023. Their 40 offensive penalties ranked 25th in the league. On drives with a penalty, the offense came away with points just five times, none of which resulted in a touchdown.
Miami Dolphins
Strength: Explosive Offensive Output
Possessing maybe the fastest offense in the league, the Dolphins boast several playmakers with lethal speed, including Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane. That has translated directly to explosive plays, with Miami ranking in the top four in both explosive run (14.9%) and pass (20.3%) percentages.
Weakness: Mistakes on Third and Fourth Downs
When behind schedule, the Dolphins can press a bit too much and commit mistakes. Miami has committed 10 turnovers on third and fourth downs, the fifth most in the NFL. The offense has converted just 43% of the time in late-down situations, which ranks 11th out of the 14 playoff teams.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Strength: Red-Zone Scoring Defense
The Steelers' defense is the backbone of the team, and the unit does its best work in tough situations. Across 53 drives of this defense being backed up inside its own 20-yard line, 24.5% of them resulted in no points, — the fourth-best rate in the NFL. Additionally, the Steelers have allowed a touchdown on less than 44% of red-zone drives.
Weakness: Offensive Efficiency
Offensive production has been hard to come by for Pittsburgh, possessing the 22nd-ranked offense by expected points added per play. Averaging just 4.9 yards per play (25th) has put the Steelers' offense in disadvantageous positions, ultimately leading to less scoring. Of their 194 drives this season, they’ve managed a touchdown at just a 14.9% clip, the lowest among playoff teams by a wide margin.
San Francisco 49ers
Strength: Rushing Efficiency
Isolating the Niners’ biggest strength is a difficult task, but you can’t talk about a Shanahan-led team without mentioning the run game. Offensive Player of the Year front-runner Christian McCaffrey leads a backfield that ranks near the top of key metrics, ranging from explosive rushes (63) to expected points added per rush (0.030). That presence on the ground has set up the most effective play-action game in the league, generating 0.455 EPA per play.
Weakness: Short-Yardage Run Defense
While San Francisco faced the fewest rushing plays by opposing offenses in the league, consistency in short-yardage situations has caused some issues. On run plays of three or fewer yards to go, the defense allowed a conversion 76.9% of the time — the highest rate in the NFL.
Dallas Cowboys
Strength: Defensive Scores
The Cowboys don’t just want to force turnovers; they also want to take it back to the house. Dallas led the NFL in defensive touchdowns (six) during the regular season, driven by DaRon Bland‘s ball-hawking ability. He finished as the league's second-highest-graded cornerback (90.4). The Cowboys are 5-0 when the defense finds the endzone.
Weakness: Late-Game Run Defense
The Cowboys rarely find themselves behind late in games, but when they do, it has proven difficult to overcome. On run plays in the four-minute drill, Dallas has surrendered a successful play at a 36.4% rate (30th) and ranks 24th in expected points allowed per rush.
Detroit Lions
Strength: Late-Game Offensive Poise
Unsurprisingly, the Dan Campbell-led Lions finish games strong and rarely go down without a fight. Detroit plays its best ball down stretch, leading the league in a variety of late-game metrics. In the fourth quarter and overtime, the Lions pace the NFL in expected points added per play (0.104), touchdowns (17), conversion rate (32.4%) and yards per play (5.6).
Weakness: Coverage
The Lions' coverage unit couldn’t find its footing in 2023, dropping near the bottom of the league in several key metrics. On passing downs, Detroit ranked 28th in expected points allowed per play, due largely to surrendering 108 explosive passes (31st) and 29 touchdowns (26th).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Strength: Offense Down the Stretch
Raymond James Stadium is hosting a playoff game, one reason being the fantastic play of Baker Mayfield and his playmakers to close out the regular season. Since Week 15, the Buccaneers have produced 29 passes of 15 or more yards, the second most in the NFL over that span, contributing to the team's sixth-ranked EPA per dropback figure.
Weakness: Batted Passes
While Mayfield and company have been hot lately, a season-long issue of passes being batted behind the line remains. Of the playoff teams, Tampa Bay has surrendered the most batted passes (16) by a wide margin. The next highest team has six fewer.
Philadelphia Eagles
Strength: Short-Yardage Conversions
The quarterback sneak has essentially been renamed to pay homage to this team's ability to convert in short-yardage situations. On third and fourth downs of three yards or fewer to go, the Eagles convert at a 73.8% clip, the highest in the NFL. In those situations, they produce the highest EPA per play figure (0.513) in the NFL.
Weakness: Late-Down Defense
The Eagles' defense has struggled to get off the field when given the opportunity this season. They’ve seen the sixth-most plays run against them, due largely to being incapable of stopping teams on third and fourth downs. Philadelphia has allowed a 48.1% conversion rate and 20 touchdowns on such downs, ranking last in both categories.
Los Angeles Rams
Strength: Red-Zone Scoring Efficiency
When the Rams are clicking offensively, they’re a difficult group to stop. On red-zone drives, they put points on the board at the highest rate in the league (96.5%) and produce a successful play more than 39% of the time (third best).
Weakness: Drops
As talented as this Rams offense is, their pass-catching playmakers have faltered at times. Los Angeles led all teams in drop rate, pushing above 6.3%. That rate increased even further on crucial downs, creeping above 7.1% on third and fourth downs.
Green Bay Packers
Strength: Jordan Love’s Emergence
The Packers quarterback’s emergence as a quality starter came as a surprise to some. Yet, he has earned much respect for his play in the back half of the season. Since Week 12, Love has earned the league’s highest passing grade (91.3), having produced 18 big-time throws — the most in the NFL over that span.
Weakness: Run Defense
Explosive runs have come in bunches (47) against the Packers' defense, due in part to their issues with missing tackles (77) on such plays. That figure ranks in the bottom third of the NFL. Green Bay allowed more than 2.9 rushing yards after contact per attempt during the regular season.
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