NFL statistical review after Week 2: Team tiers, dropback outcomes and more

This article will be a weekly statistical review of all NFL teams during the 2023 season. With the sample size still low after Week 2, a lot will change over the next few weeks as stats become more meaningful with more snaps logged.

For more statistics, snap counts and PFF grades from the 2023 NFL season, check out PFF Premium Stats.

Team Strengths

The following chart shows how good teams have been by expected points added per play. To improve predictive power, high-leverage plays such as turnovers and goal-line plays are down-weighted a bit.

In the future, this chart will be opponent-adjusted.

We will also separate the teams by rushing and passing efficiency. The following chart shows rushing efficiency:

Here is the passing efficiency of each team:

Moving the sticks

The following chart shows how often teams move the sticks — that is, convert a series of downs to a new series of downs. For example, the Miami Dolphins moved the sticks on first down 32% of the time. They moved the sticks on the first two downs 64% of the time. After three downs, they moved the sticks 79% of the time. In total (using all four downs), they converted to a new series of downs 80% of the time.

Here is the same chart for defenses:

Pass rates

The following table shows how often teams drop back to pass, adjusted for down, distance and the current score.

Dropback outcomes

With targets being the most efficient outcome of a dropback on average, just getting a target off more often than others can already be an important indicator of a good offense. There are notable exceptions for teams with mobile quarterbacks, but teams mostly want to have a large green bar and a small purple (sacks) bar in that chart.

Here is the same chart for when the quarterback is under pressure:

We also want to look at the contribution of each dropback outcome to the overall passing efficiency of each team.

Here is how much the negative outcomes (sacks, throwaways and interceptions) contribute to each team’s total EPA per pass play numbers.

Here is how the mostly positive outcomes (targeted passes that aren’t intercepted and scrambles) contribute to each team’s passing efficiency:

As an overall summary, here is simply the passing efficiency for each NFL team: