Sam Darnold is proving his worth in Minnesota

• Darnold is off to the best start of his career: Darnold's 83.7 PFF passing grade currently ranks third in the NFL, as does his 9.5 yards per pass attempt.

• Playing with more confidence: Before this season, Darnold posted a 60.7 career passing grade when making throws to his first read, one of the worst marks in the league. This season, he ranks third in the NFL behind Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr with an 88.8 passing grade on first-read throws.

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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

The Minnesota Vikings had a clear plan ahead of the 2024 NFL season: Veteran quarterback Sam Darnold would hold the reins just long enough for first-round pick J.J. McCarthy to take over, by which time Darnold would retreat to the sidelines and hold the clipboard, as he's done so often in recent years.

But when McCarthy went down with a season-ending knee injury in the preseason, everything changed.

Suddenly, Darnold wasn’t just a placeholder — he was the man tasked with leading Minnesota’s charge. And against all odds, he has shown through the first two games that he can lead his team into postseason contention.

Darnold's 83.7 PFF passing grade currently ranks third in the NFL, as does his 9.5 yards per pass attempt. Armed with solid pass protection and a strong group of weapons, he’s proven that he can succeed in several ways that are vital to Kevin O’Connell’s offense.

First and foremost, Darnold has shown improved ball security, which was his primary issue even going all the way back to his college career at USC.

From 2018 to 2023, Darnold posted a 4.1% turnover-worthy play rate, the fourth-worst among quarterbacks with at least 1,000 dropbacks. Despite ranking just 23rd in regular-season dropbacks, his 56 interceptions were the ninth-most in the league during that stretch, highlighting his struggles with ball security.

Through two weeks of the 2024 campaign, his lone turnover-worthy play was an interception to Fred Warner, the best linebacker in the NFL, who made an incredible play to catch the ball.  Otherwise, he’s posted a relatively clean slate and is one of 10 quarterbacks who have started two games and committed one or fewer turnover-worthy plays.

It would be reasonable to think that Darnold’s newfound ball security results from a more conservative approach. That’s not the case, however, as Darnold’s 8.8-yard average target depth is almost identical to his career average.

In fact, one of the primary weapons for the Vikings so far has been Darnold’s prowess as a vertical passer.

Sam Darnold: Deep passing (throws of 20-plus yards) stats

Darnold’s arm talent has never been in question, but for several reasons throughout his career, he seemed unable to complete deep passes. Before this season, his 66.9 deep passing grade was the third-worst in the NFL among passers with at least 100 attempts since 2018. This season, he’s displaying the confidence to take shots downfield to several of the Vikings’ weapons.

Another essential element of Minnesota’s offense is their use of play-action. Over the past two seasons, the Vikings led the NFL in play-action dropbacks and ranked second behind San Francisco in play-action passing grade.

Before this season, Darnold owned a career 67.5 play-action passing grade. His 60.8% completion rate on such passes was the lowest in the NFL among 38 passers who threw at least 300 play-action passes from 2018 to 2023.

Naturally, Darnold seems to have alleviated those woes, as well.

Sam Darnold: Play-action passing stats

Minnesota has run the ball well so far, and Darnold’s ability to thrive with play-action has been a terrific complement. This is a formula they can continue to succeed with.

Lastly, while Darnold’s arm talent is allowing him to make big-time throws down the field, his confidence in his pre-snap reads is at an all-time high. He has an excellent understanding of where the ball needs to go in O’Connell’s offense.

Before this season, Darnold posted a 60.7 career passing grade when making throws to his first read, which was (again) one of the worst marks in the league. This season, he ranks third in the NFL behind Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr with an 88.8 passing grade on first-read throws.

His average time to throw isn’t significantly different from the rest of his career, so it’s not as if he’s rushing the ball out. He’s simply playing with more confidence in himself, his weapons and his protection.

The Vikings didn’t plan on their entire season balancing on Sam Darnold‘s success, but so far, he is playing at a level that he never has before. If he continues his current level of play for the entire season, he could make his first postseason appearance as a starter.