How Russell Wilson has fueled the Steelers’ offensive turnaround

• Wilson's deep ball has been the cure-all: Wilson has not only thrown deep at one of the highest rates in the NFL — 17.6% of all of his attempts have been 20-plus yards downfield, the second-highest clip among qualifiers — but also to great success.

• Play under pressure is still an issue: Wilson ranks 23rd in PFF overall grade under pressure and is allowing his own sacks at one of the highest rates in the NFL.

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Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

When the Pittsburgh Steelers signed Russell Wilson to a one-year, $1.2 million deal in the first few days of free agency, the move was largely chided around the NFL landscape. Questions bubbled about Wilson’s fit with new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, and the veteran's declining play with the Denver Broncos was far from a promising sign.

The early results for Wilson with his third franchise weren’t particularly promising, as the 35-year-old wasn’t effectively healthy until midseason due to a lingering calf injury. Even then, Justin Fields played rather solidly as the team’s starting quarterback — that is, until he fell victim to ill-advised decisions and inaccuracy. The door opened for Wilson to start in Week 7, and he’s more than kicked it down since.

In the span of his three starts, Wilson has propelled Pittsburgh to three straight games with at least 26 points. Regarding more advanced stats, Pittsburgh has ranked 11th in EPA per play, eighth in scoring drive percentage and fifth in passing EPA per play while recording only three turnovers in that span. With Fields at the helm for the first six games, Pittsburgh sat 18th in overall EPA per play, 12th in scoring drive percentage and 14th in passing EPA per play with five turnovers.

Those numbers aren’t dramatically different, but they do reflect an improvement — especially through the air, and particularly relative to past seasons of futility.

Steelers Offensive Ranks, Weeks 1-10

Indeed, that’s where Wilson has truly begun to elevate the Steelers' offense. His 72.3 PFF passing grade is higher than Fields’ (67.0) and ranks 15th among qualifiers. The raw numbers may not be drastically apart, but Wilson’s big-time throw rate is significantly higher (6.6% to 3.5%), and his turnover-worthy play rate (1.0% to 2.8%) is lower.

How, specifically, has Wilson catalyzed this improvement? It all starts with his signature “moon ball.” He has carried over his proclivity for throwing high-arcing go balls from Seattle and Denver, executing them rather marvelously in the Steel City. Wilson has not only thrown deep at one of the highest rates in the NFL — 17.6% of all of his attempts have been 20-plus yards downfield, the second-highest clip among qualifiers — but also to great success.

Russell Wilson on deep passes (20+ yards) this year:

53.3% completion % (best in NFL)
90.7 PFF passing grade (8th)
5 big-time throws/0 turnover-worthy plays

Wilson hasn't been all perfect, but his patented moon ball has unlocked a new dimension to the #Steelers offense pic.twitter.com/NopvsnfDek

— Bradley Locker (@Bradley_Locker) November 11, 2024

Where Fields failed to take advantage of George Pickens in one-on-one opportunities — or simply throw to players like Calvin Austin III, Darnell Washington and Van Jefferson schemed open downfield — Wilson has fully embraced it. That’s demonstrated, in part, by Wilson’s 10.8-yard average depth of target compared to Fields’ 7.7-yard mark. Likewise, 31.7% of Wilson’s passes have traveled 10 or more yards downfield, whereas Fields sat at 25.1%.

Throwing to Pickens deep downfield is shrewd because it’s precisely where the wideout excels. Since 2022, the third-year receiver has posted the third-highest PFF receiving grade (97.9) in the league on deep passes. Pickens’ absurd body control, high-pointing ability and strong hands make him one of the best contested catchers in football. His 36 contested grabs since he debuted are the 12th most in the NFL.

Much was made about the fact that Wilson hasn’t thrown over the middle well his entire career, yet that zone is traditionally one of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s favorite areas to work. Instead of building an offense around Smith’s desires, Mike Tomlin and the Steelers have catered to their quarterbacks — attacking deep outside the numbers to an 88.6 PFF passing grade, the fifth-highest mark in football, while throwing over the middle at the lowest rate in the league (1.7% of dropbacks).

Russell Wilson's 2024 Passing Map

On top of that, Pittsburgh acquired wide receiver Mike Williams prior to the trade deadline, giving Wilson another superb vertical threat and contested-catch artist. The results were virtually instant, with Williams hauling in the game-winning, 32-yard touchdown to down the Commanders in Week 18.

Yes, the Steelers are 3-0 and in a much better offensive rhythm with Wilson, but it hasn’t been all flawless. Wilson’s biggest problem has been his play under pressure. His 52.7 PFF overall grade under pressure ranks 23rd out of 40 qualifying quarterbacks, marginally better than Fields' 52.4 mark. Whereas Fields could take off and scramble when under duress (75.2 rushing grade in such situations), Wilson is largely handicapped with limited acceleration, succumbing to throwaways, diminished accuracy and limited playmaking.

Pittsburgh also hasn’t seen much improvement in Wilson's ability to prevent his own pressure. His 21.9% allowed pressure rate is identical to Fields’, tying for the fourth-highest clip among qualified quarterbacks. Hanging in the pocket too long, then largely being unable to flourish when rushers are in his face, is a dangerous combination.

The Steelers narrowly eked out a pivotal road win over one of the NFL’s better teams in Washington, starting a verifiable gauntlet that includes all six divisional games, the Eagles and Chiefs. Although Pittsburgh stares down the second-hardest remaining schedule in the league, the team is almost a sure-fire bet to make the playoffs, given a 93% chance to finish as a top-seven seed in the AFC.

If Pittsburgh can continue to obtain success with Wilson hurling deep passes — especially to Pickens and Williams — then its offense, paired with its elite defense, may give it a shot at making noise in the postseason. But if Wilson remains ineffective under pressure and/or deep passes are neutralized, the Steelers will have to find offensive answers from elsewhere.

Ultimately, Wilson’s play has largely exceeded expectations; he has overcome mistakes to make requisite, game-winning throws. But his success has come against three generally poor secondaries. The veteran’s performance will need to be further fleshed out, and that’s exactly what a grueling final eight games will offer.