• A deserved starting job: The rookie staked claim to the Broncos' starting gig with an impressive preseason.
• Positive grades but some negative tendencies to watch for: Nix finished with an 80.4 PFF overall grade but was responsible for 33.3% of his pressured dropbacks in the preseason — a rate that will have to come down in the regular season.
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Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
After an excellent preseason, Bo Nix unsurprisingly earned the Denver Broncos‘ starting quarterback job.
The team selected Nix in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, pitting him against Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham for the starting role months ago. Wilson and Stidham haven’t exactly enjoyed success at the position in the league, though, and while nothing is ever a guarantee, this was always the most likely scenario for the Broncos in 2024.
Nix finished the 2024 NFL preseason with an 80.4 PFF overall grade across two games, in addition to a 78.4 passing grade. He made just one big-time throw but did an excellent job of protecting the football, with zero turnover-worthy plays. Nix completed 71.9% of his throws (including plays negated by penalty), recorded an average depth of target of just 7.3 yards and took zero sacks.
This is exactly what we saw from Nix in his two years at Oregon. He protected the ball well, took what the defense gave him, rarely took sacks and allowed his playmakers to work after the catch because of his high-level accuracy.
Head coach Sean Payton appears to have implemented a higher play-action play rate than what we’re accustomed to seeing from a Payton-led offense. With Drew Brees and Russell Wilson at the helm, Payton ranked in the bottom five in the NFL in play-action rate. With Nix behind center, the Broncos were at 30.6% this preseason — the second-highest clip among rookie quarterbacks. If Payton is shifting his play calling to a more play-action-heavy offense, it’ll go a long way toward helping the rookie define reads and make decisions.
One negative aspect of Nix’s play in college was his tendency to bail from clean pockets into pressure. He did so in 2023 at a 28.6% rate, the second-highest quarterback-owned pressure percentage among draft-eligible quarterbacks, behind only Caleb Williams. Nix was responsible for 33.3% of his pressured dropbacks this preseason. If that continues against NFL starters in regular-season games, his lofty completion rate and 58.3% success rate per dropback will not be sustainable. Too often he had open receivers in his progression and passed them up to scramble from clean pockets.
Nix has shown to be a quick decision-maker. Whether or not the decision is correct, being decisive in your actions generally leads to positive outcomes. When a quarterback hesitates, NFL defenders take advantage and it leads to negative plays for the offense. If we can be confident about anything regarding Nix at this stage, he will limit negative plays for the Broncos' offense and throw an accurate ball to his desired target.
While Nix has faced second- and third-string defenses in his two preseason games, Denver should feel confident it has a quarterback who will deliver wins and not actively lose games.
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