• The Bengals have a prime opportunity to go “worst to first”: After finishing last in the AFC North in 2023, Cincinnati faces the fourth-easiest schedule in 2024.
• The Bears could quickly turn around their fortunes: A new-look offense — one filled with weapons — and the eighth-easiest schedule in the NFL may be a recipe for success.
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Estimated Reading Time: 15 minutes
While every NFL team's path to victory will be unique, the strength of their schedule plays a pivotal role in shaping their future. Here, we use a blend of PFF ELO and the market’s assessment of NFL teams to delve into the 2024 NFL season and determine which teams have the easiest and hardest schedules.
PFF ELO takes into account a team’s record from last season, their opponents' records, home and away games, injuries and roster changes. It is the same framework we used to create our market-implied power rankings, which can be found here.
1. Atlanta Falcons
Projected Win Total: 9.1
Market Win Total: 9.9
Avg. opponent’s ELO rating: 1470 (1.41 points worse than average)
Avg. opponent’s QB rating: 2.85 points above replacement level
Games against teams with pre-season rank 1-8 (Tier 1): 2
Games against teams with pre-season rank 9-16 (Tier 2): 1
Games against teams with pre-season rank 17-24 (Tier 3): 7
Games against teams with pre-season rank 25-32 (Tier 4): 7
Games against top QBs (Tier 1): 3
Games against good QBs (Tier 2): 2
Games against solid QBs (Tier 3): 6
Games against unknown or bad QBs (Tier 4): 6
For the third year in a row, the Falcons are supposed to have one of the easiest schedules in the league. And this time, they didn’t want to mess around at the quarterback position and brought in veteran Kirk Cousins to finally take advantage.
The Falcons play a league-low number of five games against above-average quarterbacks, and only three of their 17 opponents are considered to be top-16 NFL teams as of now.
Their toughest stretch is back-to-back games against the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs in Weeks 2 and 3. From Week 10 on, the Falcons play opponents with an average ELO rating of 1433. That’s like playing the 26th-best team in the league every week.
2. Los Angeles Chargers
Projected Win Total: 8.5
Market Win Total: 8.8
Avg. opponent’s ELO rating: 1486 (0.76 points worse than average)
Avg. opponent’s QB rating: 3.12 points above replacement level
Games against tier 1/2/3/4 teams: 4 / 2 / 4 / 7
Games against tier 1/2/3/4 QBs: 4 / 2 / 4 / 7
We will find out this season whether the Chargers’ issue in recent years was their roster or coaching. Given that they play the second-easiest schedule, there are not a lot of excuses for the new coaching staff.
The Chargers have a tough stretch in Weeks 11-14, when they face the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons and Chiefs — opponents with an average ELO rating of 1582. The rest of the schedule is fairly light work, and they will close out the season against teams with an average ELO rating of 1427 through their last four games. If the Chargers don’t get eliminated through their tough midseason stretch, they could make a playoff push in December.
3. New Orleans Saints
Projected Win Total: 8.1
Market Win Total: 7.5
Avg. opponent’s ELO rating: 1488 (0.69 points worse than average)
Avg. opponent’s QB rating: 3.29 points above replacement level
Games against tier 1/2/3/4 teams: 2 / 6 / 3 / 6
Games against tier 1/2/3/4 QBs: 4 / 4 / 4 / 5
For the second year in a row, the Saints are supposed to take advantage of an easy schedule. However, after a game of unknown difficulty against the new-look Carolina Panthers, New Orleans has four tough games against the Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons and Chiefs from Weeks 2-5.
If they are 3-2 after that stretch, the Saints could fight to make the playoffs. If they come out of it with a 1-4 record, there might be an early head coach change in New Orleans.
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