• An interesting quarterback dynamic in San Francisco: Any of Trey Lance, Brock Purdy or Sam Darnold could be behind center in Week 1, but Darnold seems most likely to open the season as the starter.
• Not so fast on Anthony Richardson opening 2023 as the Colts' starter: Gardner Minshew would be on a short leash should he win the job out of the gate, but it could still take a few weeks for Richardson to become QB1.
• Rookie Devon Achane may not be in a committee for long: The third-round pick's receiving ability could be what separates him from the pack going forward.
Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes
Rookies are beginning to report to NFL training camps across the country, and veterans will follow shortly thereafter. As with every year heading into the regular season, there are a few intriguing training camp battles to monitor ahead of Week 1.
We dive into the top quarterback battles and one key running back situation, with a prediction on how we think the depth chart will ultimately shake out.
QUARTERBACK: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Trey Lance vs. Brock Purdy vs. Sam Darnold
From Week 13 through the NFC divisional round, Purdy could seemingly do no wrong. During that stretch, he threw 16 touchdowns and just four interceptions, ranking fourth with 8.4 yards per attempt and sixth with a 78.3% adjusted completion percentage. Purdy’s season came to a very unfortunate end as he suffered a serious elbow injury that required offseason surgery. He’s still working his way back into throwing but is reportedly right on schedule.
Trey Lance is the wildcard here as the former No. 3 overall pick that required a massive investment, and perhaps San Francisco could view the first few weeks as a great opportunity to boost his value for a potential trade at the deadline or next offseason. The 49ers may not have the luxury of giving Lance a trial run, given their expectations for 2023, currently with the fourth-best Super Bowl odds in the NFL (10-to-1 on DraftKings Sportsbook).
As for Darnold, he was reportedly a player that Kyle Shanahan and company were very high on when he came out in the 2018 NFL Draft, and he quietly strung together five solid starts to close out 2022. Over Weeks 12-17, Darnold’s 8.8 yards per attempt led the NFL, with seven touchdowns to one interception, and nine big-time throws to just three turnover-worthy plays. His game still has warts, but he’s never played with a supporting cast or play caller in the same stratosphere as what the 49ers possess.
San Francisco opens the season with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Rams, New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals — four games the team should win and needs to win if they want to battle for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. If Purdy’s elbow isn’t fully ready to roll, don’t sleep on Darnold kicking off the season.
Winner: Sam Darnold gets the nod for a few weeks until Purdy is 100% back and throwing the football confidently.
QUARTERBACK: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Gardner Minshew vs. Anthony Richardson
There seems to be an assumption that Richardson will automatically win the starting job in Indianapolis, and folks perhaps shouldn’t be so sure. New head coach Shane Steichen didn’t just bring in any bridge quarterback; he recruited Gardner Minshew to join him with the Colts after spending two seasons together with the Philadelphia Eagles. During that time, Steichen also played a key role in the development of Jalen Hurts from Carson Wentz’s backup to a Super Bowl starter and one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
Minshew wasn’t perfect in two spot starts last year but drew the No. 3 defense in expected points allowed per dropback with the Dallas Cowboys and then the No. 12 defense in EPA per dropback allowed in the New Orleans Saints. In a high-octane Christmas Eve showdown with Dallas, Minshew threw for 355 yards at an 8.9 yards-per-attempt clip en route to a 74.7 passing grade. Two touchdowns to two interceptions were followed by a rougher outing against the Saints, but Minshew still managed 8.6 yards per attempt in a losing effort with a 36.8 passing grade.
The turnovers will not keep Minshew’s job safe for long, but Indianapolis kicks off the season against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans, who ranked 16th and 20th, respectively, in EPA per dropback allowed in 2022. An easier start to the schedule with critical division matchups could be used as an argument for Minshew or Richardson, but Richardson just turned 21 years old in May and started 13 games in college, so a patient approach may make the most sense here.
Winner: Minshew gets the nod and plays through Week 3 against the Baltimore Ravens, with Richardson taking the reins in Week 4 at home against the Los Angeles Rams and then the division rival Tennessee Titans.
QUARTERBACK: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Baker Mayfield vs. Kyle Trask
There was so much buzz about Mayfield to the Buccaneers during the early stages of this offseason that Ian Rapoport of NFL Media basically reported the deal before free agency officially began. After spending time with the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams in 2022, Mayfield signed a one-year deal for $4 million, which certainly doesn’t guarantee any playing time.
From Weeks 15-18 with the Los Angeles Rams, Mayfield’s 48.7 passing grade ranked 34th out of 36 quarterbacks with at least 50 passing attempts over the span. It’s not easy to step into a new situation and produce, and Mayfield’s dominant performance against the Denver Broncos in Week 16, going 24-of-28 with two touchdowns to no interceptions, deserves a mention. Mayfield was also working behind the 25th-ranked pass-protecting offensive line without Cooper Kupp on the field. He should have a much better situation in Tampa.
The Buccaneers were obviously prioritizing winning with Tom Brady over Trask’s development or any long-term consideration, but it’s nonetheless notable that he never supplanted Blaine Gabbert as the No. 2 quarterback on the depth chart. Trask has nine pass attempts through two seasons, going 3-of-9 for 23 yards in Week 18 against the Atlanta Falcons. However, Trask impressed during the preseason last year with a 7.3% big-time throw rate that ranked sixth among quarterbacks and a 74.2 passing grade. Nonetheless, this seems like Mayfield’s job to lose.
Winner: Baker Mayfield gets the nod with a fairly short leash in an NFC South that figures to be a war of attrition once again in 2023.
RUNNING BACK: MIAMI DOLPHINS
Devon Achane vs. Jeff Wilson Jr. vs. Raheem Mostert
Rumors continue to swirl about the possibility of recently released running back Dalvin Cook returning home to South Beach and joining the Miami Dolphins. They reportedly made a contract offer, and clearly Cook and his camp are not in love with the numbers as they continue to wait for calls to come in.
The Dolphins traded for Wilson at last year’s deadline and kept him around on a two-year, $6 million contract in free agency after he averaged 4.7 yards per carry with a 74.9 rushing grade. For the entire 2022 season, Wilson forced 0.16 missed tackles per attempt, racked up 2.6 yards after contact per attempt and broke off 24 explosive rushes. Raheem Mostert, his former 49ers teammate and the elder statesman of the running back room, led him in each category with 0.22 missed tackles forced per attempt, 3.5 yards after contact per attempt and 27 explosive rushes on almost an identical number of carries.
Enter Devon Achane, a back some around the league thought could sneak into the late second round but ultimately fell to the Dolphins late in the third round. Achane ran a 4.32-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine after earning a 93.7 rushing grade over his final two seasons at Texas A&M, which ranked sixth among FBS running backs over the span. His 62 explosive rushes ranked 12th.
Achane added 60 receptions, which was good for the eighth most among FBS running backs, and 10 explosive receptions, which tied for 15th. Perhaps some continued development in the passing game, an area where Mostert and Wilson haven’t been utilized a great deal, could be what separates Achane from the pack going forward.
Winner: The entire committee staves off more competition from the outside, and Achane ends the season as the primary back in the rotation.
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