• Trevor Lawrence stands alone among the 2021 quarterback class: We predict every signal-caller besides Lawrence to have their options declined.
• Micah Parsons, Jaelan Phillips headline an impressive edge rusher group: Both are projected to have their fifth-year options exercised, with Parsons' decision being a formality before he becomes the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history.
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The 2021 NFL Draft was touted as having a “generational” crop of young quarterbacks, but all but No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence will almost certainly have their fifth-year options declined. Nonetheless, this was still a highly talented crop of young players who have become foundational cornerstones of their respective franchises.
Here are our predictions on the fifth-year option decisions for the 2021 class, with the deadline set for May 2.
PICK NO. 1: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: QB TREVOR LAWRENCE
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 76.4
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 5.9083
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $25,664,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
The more interesting decision is whether Jacksonville tries to get ahead of the ever-growing quarterback market and extends Lawrence to what will still be a top-of-market extension despite struggles in his first and third seasons, or only exercises the option and waits out the 2024 season. We think it would be very wise to get a deal done, but the fifth-year option is getting exercised either way.
PICK NO. 2: NEW YORK JETS: QB ZACH WILSON
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 54.3
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: -0.5343
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $22,408,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
Wilson will likely soon join Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones as the quarterbacks traded to new teams, and just like those three, the new team won’t be exercising Wilson’s fifth-year option.
PICK NO. 3: DALLAS COWBOYS (via SF): QB TREY LANCE
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 57.2
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 0.1488
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $22,408,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
Dallas is preparing to make starting quarterback Dak Prescott the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL, so they will get value out of Lance’s fourth cheap year of his rookie contract and then prepare for the future at the backup spot going forward.
PICK NO. 4: ATLANTA FALCONS: TE KYLE PITTS
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 78.4
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: .9908
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $10,878,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Pitts’ option is a great value at the tight end number compared to the wide receiver amounts, and a fully healthy Pitts in 2024 with Kirk Cousins throwing him the ball can help him return to playing like the dynamic 1,000-yard rookie sensation.
PICK NO. 5: CINCINNATI BENGALS: WR JA’MARR CHASE
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 90.2
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 1.2856
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $21,816,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Cincinnati has franchise-tagged wideout Tee Higgins to deal with, including a trade request to navigate, but the option here is a foregone conclusion. Will they entertain extending a non-quarterback first-round pick after just three seasons? They probably should, but we’d be surprised.
PICK NO. 6: MIAMI DOLPHINS: WR JAYLEN WADDLE
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 90.5
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 1.0023
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $15,591,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Waddle will be the Dolphins' No. 1 pass catcher in the not-so-distant future when Tyreek Hill retires, and his option will be exercised to keep him under contract through 2025.
PICK NO. 7: DETROIT LIONS: T PENEI SEWELL
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 90.4
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 1.2474
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $19,040,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Sewell boosted the value of his option with remarkable play in 2023, and the answer to the infamous “Ja’Marr Chase or Penei Sewell in the draft?” question is a resounding “yes.”
PICK NO. 8: CAROLINA PANTHERS: CB JAYCEE HORN
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 79.1
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 0.6268
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $12,472,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Despite a few nagging soft tissue injuries, Horn is a complete lockdown No. 1 cornerback when healthy, and we think Carolina will still pick up the option here and bet on his outstanding talent.
PICK NO. 9: DENVER BRONCOS: CB PATRICK SURTAIN II
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 81.0
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 1.5894
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $19,802,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
The option here is just a placeholder for whenever Surtain becomes the highest-paid cornerback in the NFL.
PICK NO. 10: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: WR DEVONTA SMITH
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 82.5
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 1.0885
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $15,591,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Smith has been everything the Eagles hoped he would be when they traded up to select the reigning Heisman Trophy winner out of Alabama.
PICK NO. 11: PITTSBURGH STEELERS (via CHI): QB JUSTIN FIELDS
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 73.8
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 1.8985
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $25,664,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
The Steelers don’t have any quarterbacks under contract beyond 2024 as of today, but exercising Fields' option still feels like a longshot.
Fields can potentially supplant Russell Wilson as the starter in 2024, after which Pittsburgh may be able to sign him to something of a bridge-type deal, franchise-tag him or extend him to a major contract. That outcome is more expensive than the option — potentially exponentially so — but it's worth avoiding the downside risk of exercising the option and things not panning out quite as well.
PICK NO. 12: DALLAS COWBOYS: EDGE MICAH PARSONS
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 93.5
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 2.3219
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $21,324,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
This option is merely a placeholder before Parsons becomes the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history, possibly by a wide margin.
PICK NO. 13: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: T RASHAWN SLATER
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 85.3
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 0.722
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $19,040,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Slater returned from injury and continues to look like one of the best young blindside protectors in the NFL. The Chargers will pick up the option and reset their roster with a new regime led by Jim Harbaugh. Slater can hopefully benefit from massive extensions looming at tackle — most notably for Tampa Bay Buccaneers tackle Tristan Wirfs — before cashing in for himself.
PICK NO. 14: NEW YORK JETS: OL ALIJAH VERA-TUCKER
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 71.4
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 0.2658
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $15,313,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
This is a bit of a tricky one because Vera-Tucker has now sustained two season-ending injuries. However, when healthy, he’s a legitimate plus starter at every spot on the offensive line besides center. We think it may be too tough to decline the option, and the Jets can just hope for the best.
PICK NO. 15: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (via NE): QB MAC JONES
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 71.6
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 3.8222
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $25,664,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
Jacksonville will be plenty busy figuring things out with Trevor Lawrence, and the hometown Jones is a nice backup option for 2024 and perhaps beyond — just not on the option.
PICK NO. 16: ARIZONA CARDINALS: LB ZAVEN COLLINS
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 67.2
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 0.2146
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $13,251,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
Collins showed some flashes this past season in his transition to more of an edge rusher role as opposed to off-ball linebacker, but not enough to justify exercising this option. Perhaps with another full offseason of dedicating himself to his new position, Collins will end up happy that the option isn't exercised and he can hit the market a year sooner.
PICK NO. 18: MIAMI DOLPHINS: EDGE JAELAN PHILLIPS
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 79.0
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 0.62
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $13,251,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Phillips is a rising star as an edge rusher, but a torn Achilles around the midway point of the 2023 season makes this a bit more interesting. At the end of the day, the talent is too good to not pick up the option here, especially because Phillips didn’t qualify for a raise to the option, given the missed playtime.
PICK NO. 19: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: LB JAMIN DAVIS
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 60.1
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 0.2206
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $14,483,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
The option exercise rate for off-ball linebackers is one of the worst across all positions, and while Davis hasn’t been perfect, he’s been a good young player who can continue to get better under new head coach Dan Quinn. This one may be closer to a toss-up, especially with the option amount around $14.5 million, but we’ll bet on it getting picked up here.
PICK NO. 20: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (via NYG): WR KADARIUS TONEY
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 72.7
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 0.2096
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $14,345,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
Toney was a healthy scratch to close out the 2023 season for the Super Bowl champion Chiefs, and while the trade to acquire him was arguably worth it merely for two game-changing plays he made in the 2022 Super Bowl, there’s a very small chance this option will get exercised.
PICK NO. 21: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: EDGE KWITY PAYE
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 75.1
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 0.1211
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $13,387,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
This one is pretty interesting, with Paye a good-but-not-great player who looks to have the makings of a solid NFL player for a long time, but maybe not much beyond that. That said, Paye has gradually improved and is a perfect fit in the Colts' defense, and the option comes in at the lowest value for his position, so it makes sense for Indianapolis to pick it up and continue to push Paye’s development forward.
PICK NO. 22: TENNESSEE TITANS: CB CALEB FARLEY
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 39.9
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: -0.2134
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $12,472,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
Farley has, unfortunately, barely seen the field over his first three seasons, logging the fewest snaps of this group by a wide margin. Hopefully Farley can get healthy and we can see the player who had a ton of potential coming out of Virginia Tech, but he won’t have his option exercised before then.
PICK NO. 23: MINNESOTA VIKINGS: T CHRISTIAN DARRISAW
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 89.2
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 0.7798
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $16,037,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Darrisaw has all the makings of a franchise left tackle, already one of the best young players at the position in both the run game and as a pass protector on the blindside. Former general manager Rick Spielman’s parting gift to the team he led for a long time will not be going anywhere anytime soon.
PICK NO. 24: PITTSBURGH STEELERS: RB NAJEE HARRIS
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 81.0
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 0.4606
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $6,790,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Harris is a solid all-around player who can block for the team's new quarterback duo, catch the ball out of the backfield with confident hands and run very hard between the tackles. How he fits with new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith remains to be seen, and he should cede more and more snaps to Jaylen Warren going forward, but not so much so to make declining the fifth-year option the move here for Pittsburgh.
PICK NO. 25: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: RB TRAVIS ETIENNE
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 79.4
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 0.3296
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $6,143,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Etienne has been the explosive, dynamic playmaker when healthy that we expected when he was paired with Trevor Lawrence, his college quarterback. The lack of efficiency on the ground last year can largely be attributed to a very poor offensive line, but this shouldn’t be too tough a decision, especially after the running back market finally had a good offseason.
PICK NO. 26: CLEVELAND BROWNS: CB GREG NEWSOME II
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 72.9
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 1.126
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $13,377,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
This is an interesting situation to monitor from a larger perspective, as Newsome appears displeased with his move into more of a nickel cornerback role, but he earned coverage grades above 70.0 in each of his first three seasons and is a sticky player in coverage who a lot of teams would covet if he ever did truly become available. Whichever roster he is on come May 2, his option should be exercised.
PICK NO. 27: BALTIMORE RAVENS: WR RASHOD BATEMAN
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 64.0
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 0.1527
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $14,345,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
This one could be really tough. Bateman has dealt with various injuries and disappeared at times when on the field. He’s still a clear top-two wideout on this roster alongside 2023 first-round rookie Zay Flowers, but his 46 receptions and 515 yards from his rookie season remain his career-best marks.
PICK NO. 28: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: EDGE PAYTON TURNER
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 71.3
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 0.0293
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $13,387,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
Turner has been a healthy scratch for much of his NFL career thus far, and the Saints just signed edge defender Chase Young to a one-year flier that will push Turner down the depth chart even further.
PICK NO. 29: GREEN BAY PACKERS: CB ERIC STOKES
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 60.6
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 0.4622
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $12,472,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
Stokes appeared in just two games in 2023 after failing to reach the 500-snap mark in 2022, so we don’t necessarily expect this option to get picked up, but Green Bay has been patient with draft picks over the years, and perhaps their trade of veteran cornerback Rasul Douglas at last year’s trade deadline was a signal of confidence in Stokes’ return.
PICK NO. 30: BUFFALO BILLS: EDGE GREGORY ROUSSEAU
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 85.5
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 0.6843
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $13,387,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Rousseau has quickly developed into a force on the edge for the Buffalo Bills with a rare combination of size and burst off the line, making this a fairly easy decision on a player who could continue to get better.
PICK NO. 31: BALTIMORE RAVENS: EDGE ODAFE OWEH
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 70.3
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 0.294
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $13,251,000
- PFF Prediction: Exercise
Oweh was showing all the signs of taking the third-year leap in 2023 before some injuries caused him to miss some time, but he hit the ground running after returning and showed he is the clear No. 1 edge defender on this roster. With another offseason and a healthier 2024, he could be one of the big breakout players of the season, which makes exercising this option all the more paramount.
PICK NO. 32: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: EDGE JOE TRYON-SHOYINKA
- PFF Grade, 2021-23: 63.1
- PFF WAR, 2021-23: 0.0497
- Fifth-Year Option Amount: $13,251,000
- PFF Prediction: Decline
Tryon-Shoyinka undoubtedly has a role in the NFL as an outside linebacker who can rush the passer and be relied upon to drop into the flat in coverage with good speed and lateral movement ability, but this option may be a bit too rich. This one could be a bit of a toss-up after Tampa Bay spent some big money this offseason, but the team also moved on from a few defensive starters.
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