• Beware of the 49ers' rushing attack: As a unit, the Niners rushing attack finished third in rushing grade (92.1) and second in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.05).
• The Ravens defense is no slouch: The Ravens finished second in team coverage grade (92.9) and EPA allowed per play (-0.157). They allowed only 18 touchdowns and 156 first downs in coverage, second and seventh, respectively.
• Dig into the numbers for yourself: PFF's Premium Stats is the most in-depth collection of NFL and NCAA player performance data. Subscribe today to get full access!
Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
The NFL playoffs are here. Starting Saturday, Jan. 13, the remaining 14 teams will begin their quest for the Lombardi Trophy.
Here is how those teams stack up ahead of Super Wild Card Weekend, along with each team's standout players and highest- and lowest-graded units.
1. San Francisco 49ers (42% chance to win NFC, 20% chance to win the Super Bowl)
Highest-graded players (min. 100 snaps)
- Offense: WR Brandon Aiyuk (92.3)
- Defense: EDGE Nick Bosa (92.8)
Best unit: Rushing attack
The 49ers have one of the best running backs in the league in Christian McCaffrey. As a unit, the Niners rushing attack finished third in rushing grade (92.1) and second in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.05). The team led the league in total rushing touchdowns (27) and was tied for first in explosive runs of 10 or more yards (74).
Weak link: Pass Blocking
The 49ers earned a 55.0 team pass-blocking grade over the regular season, 26th among 32 teams. While they allowed just 17 sacks on the year, the offensive line gave up pressure on 31.2% of passing plays, the 10th-highest rate in the league.
2. Baltimore Ravens (46% chance to win AFC, 27% chance to win the Super Bowl)
Highest-graded player (min. 100 snaps)
- Offense: RB Keaton Mitchell (92.4)
- Defense: EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (86.7)
Best unit: Coverage
The Ravens finished in second team coverage grade (92.9) and EPA allowed per play (-0.157). They allowed only 18 touchdowns and 156 first downs in coverage, second and seventh, respectively.
Weak link: Run Defense
The Ravens earned a 64.7 run-defense grade and allowed -0.112 EPA per rush over the regular season, both of which ranked 14th among teams.
3. Dallas Cowboys (21% chance to win NFC, 10% chance to win the Super Bowl)
Highest-graded player (min. 100 snaps)
- Offense: WR CeeDee Lamb (91.3)
- Defense: ED Micah Parsons (92.8)
Best unit: Pass rush
This may not come as a surprise, but the Cowboys defensive line finished second in pass-rush grade (90.8) and first in both pass-rush win rate (60.3%) and pressure rate (42.2%). Micah Parsons ranked second among edge defenders in pass-rush grade (93.7) and led the league in total pressures.
Weak link: Run Blocking
The Cowboys earned a 63.7 team run-blocking grade in 2023, 11th among teams. Dallas' running backs were stuffed at or behind the line on 18.1% of their carries during the regular season, 16th in the NFL.
4. Buffalo Bills (20% chance to win AFC, 12% chance to win the Super Bowl)
Highest-graded player (min. 100 snaps)
- Offense: QB Josh Allen (91.4)
- Defense: LB Tyrel Dodson (89.6)
Best unit: Coverage
The Bills finished fourth in team coverage grade (91.9) and sixth in EPA allowed per play (-0.05). They allowed only 18 touchdowns in coverage, which tied for second in the league.
Weak link: Run Defense
The Bills struggled to a 29th-ranked 57.8 team run-defense grade and finished 23rd in EPA allowed per rush (-0.06). They’re one of the weaker run defenses that made it to the playoffs, as shown in the graphic below.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (14% chance to win AFC, 7% chance to win the Super Bowl)
Highest-graded player (min. 100 snaps)
- Offense: WR Rashee Rice (85.4)
- Defense: DI Chris Jones (85.9)
Best unit: Rushing attack
It's no secret that the Chiefs' passing game has underperformed relative to past years, as their 79.7 team passing grade pales in comparison to their grade in 2022 (90.0). This year, the rushing attack is the team's highest-graded unit, with the team's 84.4 team rushing grade good for 11th in the NFL.
Weak link: Tackling
Kansas City's 59.6 tackling grade ranked 14th among all teams during the regular season. The team has missed 14% of tackle attempts against the run so far, tied for 15th in the league.
6. Detroit Lions (10% chance to win NFC, 4% chance to win the Super Bowl)
Highest-graded player (min. 100 snaps)
- Offense: T Penei Sewell (91.3)
- Defense: ED Aidan Hutchinson (91.1)
Best unit: Rushing attack
The Lions earned a ninth-ranked 88.7 team rushing grade and finished eighth in EPA per rush. They tied for first in rushing touchdowns with 27. On top of that, they were seventh in explosive rushes of 10 or more yards.
Weak link: Coverage
The Lions finished the regular season with the 29th-ranked team coverage grade (56.3), giving up the fourth-most EPA per play. Dan Campbell's defense also ranked 30th in the percentage of plays that resulted in a 15-plus-yard gain (15.6%).
7. Miami Dolphins (9% chance to win AFC, 5% chance to win the Super Bowl)
Highest-graded player (min. 100 snaps)
- Offense: WR Tyreek Hill (93.7)
- Defense: ED Andrew Van Ginkel (91.2)
Best unit: Rushing attack
Miami’s rushing offense was borderline unstoppable, finishing the year with the second-highest team rushing grade in the league at 92.3. Miami's running backs led the league in yards after contact (1,524), yards after contact per attempt (3.9) and explosive plays of 10 or more yards (61) and finished top-three in missed tackles forced (99) and missed tackles forced per attempt (0.25).
Weak link: Run Blocking
The Dolphin's ground game may have excelled, but that had more to do with the running backs' work after contact. The Dolphins offense ranked 19th in team run-blocking grade (59.3) from Week 1 to Week 18.
8. Philadelphia Eagles (10% chance to win NFC, 4% chance to win the Super Bowl)
Highest-graded player (min. 100 snaps)
- Offense: WR A.J. Brown (90.0)
- Defense: DI Jalen Carter (89.8)
Best unit: Quarterback
Philadelphia ranked eighth in passing grade (83.0), 10th in big-time throw rate (5.0%) and fifth in turnover-worthy play rate (2.5%) during the regular season.
Weak link: Coverage
The Eagles' coverage unit graded out to 65.9, ranking tied for 24th. The group surrendered the second-most touchdowns (35) the most receptions (423) and first downs (221) in coverage.
9. Los Angeles Rams (9% chance to win NFC, 4% chance to win the Super Bowl)
Highest-graded player (min. 100 snaps)
- Offense: WR Puka Nacua (88.2)
- Defense: DI Aaron Donald (91.1)
Best unit: Rushers
The Rams placed sixth in rushing grade (90.2) and EPA per running play (0.028). They also recorded the second-lowest stuff rate (17.5%) in the NFL.
Weak link: Coverage
The Rams' coverage unit ranked 31st in PFF grade (50.0). They struggled to limit opposing offenses, ranking 22nd in coverage stops and 24th in open-target rate allowed.
10. Cleveland Browns (3% chance to win AFC, 1% chance to win the Super Bowl)
Highest-graded player (min. 100 snaps)
- Offense: WR Amari Cooper (80.3)
- Defense: ED Myles Garrett (94.0)
Best unit: Pass rush
Unsurprisingly, the Browns finished the regular season with the league's highest-graded pass-rush unit (91.3), and the defense as a whole ranked first in EPA allowed per play (-0.18). Cleveland ranked first in pass-rush win rate and second in pressure rate. Myles Garrett was the NFL's top-graded pass rusher (94.8) and led the league in pass-rush win rate (27.5%).
Weak link: Quarterback
The Browns endured many quarterback changes this season. And as a result, they placed 29th in team passing grade, 28th in EPA per play and last in adjusted completion rate. They threw more interceptions than any other team (23) and finished with the third-highest turnover-worthy play rate. The graphic below illustrates the WAR lost to injuries by the rest of their offense.
11. Houston Texans (4% chance to win AFC, 2% chance to win the Super Bowl)
Highest-graded player (min. 100 snaps)
- Offense: WR Nico Collins (91.0)
- Defense: ED Derek Barnett (90.5)
Best unit: Coverage
The Texans earned an 85.5 team coverage grade this season, ranking ninth in the NFL. They allowed the fewest touchdowns in coverage (17).
Weak link: Run Blocking
Houston ranked 20th in run-blocking grade during the regular season (57.7). The team's rushing success — or lack thereof — was a direct reflection of that, ranking 31st in the percentage of first downs and touchdowns gained by a run (18.7%).
12. Green Bay Packers (3% chance to win NFC, 1% chance to win the Super Bowl)
Highest-graded player (min. 100 snaps)
- Offense: WR Bo Melton (88.1)
- Defense: ED Rashan Gary (82.1)
Best unit: Quarterback
Jordan Love exceeded expectations in his first season as the Packers' starting quarterback. He ranked 12th in overall grade (83.0) and fourth in EPA per play among signal-callers. He also placed second in passing touchdowns (32) and tied for 10th in big-time throw rate (5.6%)
Weak link: Run Blocking
Only tackle Zach Tom earned a run-blocking grade above 70.0 among Packers offensive linemen. Green Bay ranked just 23rd in first-down-plus-touchdown rate on runs, too.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5% chance to win NFC, 2% chance to win the Super Bowl)
Highest-graded player (min. 100 snaps)
- Offense: T Tristan Wirfs (83.6)
- Defense: S Antoine Winfield Jr. (91.2)
Best unit: Pass Rush
The Buccaneers may target pass-rushing help in the 2024 NFL Draft, but their current crop still held up relatively well in 2023. The unit placed 13th in sacks and 15th in pass-rush win rate.
Weak link: Run Blocking
Open rushing lanes were hard to come by for a Tampa Bay offense that finished 29th in run-blocking grade (52.2). Their rushers placed last in rushing yards and 28th in rushing touchdowns.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (3% chance to win AFC, 1% chance to win the Super Bowl)
Highest-graded player (min. 100 snaps)
- Offense: RB Jaylen Warren (78.6)
- Defense: ED T.J. Watt (91.9)
Best unit: Pass Rush
Pittsburgh ranked fourth in team pass-rushing grade (88.5) this regular season. The team also placed fifth in pass-rush win rate and 11th in pressure rate. T.J. Watt ranked fourth in pass-rush grade (91.7) among edge defenders.
Weak link: Pass Blocking
While the Steelers didn’t allow many sacks, they earned the second-worst pass-blocking grade in the NFL (47.3) and gave up pressure on 35.5% of reps — the eighth-highest clip in the NFL.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.